The election that might make a difference and is too close to call thread - France

A_Medium_Size_Jock

The first vote estimates suggest Macron and Le Pen qualify for the second round with Macron showing a marginal lead.

michaels

So the projected out turn matches the polls even in a very close race - which begs the question, how come the polls were wrong in the UK and US but right in France?

michaels

Does anyone else find it embarrassing that most countries have electronic voting and know the result within minutes and yet we still use pieces of paper....

prosaver

michaels wrote: »

Does anyone else find it embarrassing that most countries have electronic voting and know the result within minutes and yet we still use pieces of paper....

I dont trust computers and you get a lot of fraud votes.
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/video/assembly-election-result-2017-punjab-election-results-2017-mayawati/1/902203.html
anyway nice, some kids get the day off school and the teachers: beer:

Wednesday2000

michaels wrote: »

So the projected out turn matches the polls even in a very close race - which begs the question, how come the polls were wrong in the UK and US but right in France?

I read that the polls are much more accurate in France. I think it was Nate Silver?

gfplux

both Fillon and Jupe have this evening on French TV publicly endorsed Macron for the 2nd round. At this time 21.30 CET M!lenchon has said nothing.
French TV have now updated the %. Macron 23.9%Le Pen 21.7%

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

So the projected out turn matches the polls even in a very close race - which begs the question, how come the polls were wrong in the UK and US but right in France?

Difference in forecasting the outcome of separate seats and voting for a national president. We don't actually directly vote for a PM.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

So the projected out turn matches the polls even in a very close race - which begs the question, how come the polls were wrong in the UK and US but right in France?

Perhaps the French don't tell porky pies when asked.:)

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Difference in forecasting the outcome of separate seats and voting for a national president. We don't actually directly vote for a PM.

GB national opinion polls do not forecast the outcome of separate seats. They simply give the % vote share for each party. Although you can use those vote shares to 'predict' a likely seat distribution. And many people do.

fatbeetle

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman tweets: "It's good that Emmanuel Macron was successful with his course for a strong EU and social market economy. All the best for the next two weeks."

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has congratulated Emmanuel Macron on today's result.

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has praised Macron supporters for flying French and EU flags. "The result is the hope and future of our generation," she tweeted.

EU ueber alles and all that.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

So the projected out turn matches the polls even in a very close race - which begs the question, how come the polls were wrong in the UK and US but right in France?

The polls were not that wrong in the US presidential race. They seemed to show that Clinton was 3 to 4 points ahead, but she ended up being 2 points ahead. The problem was that those 2 points and more were all in California and NY State, allowing to Trunp to get a majority in the electoral college.