the snap general election thread

antrobus

Moby wrote: »

Guff....at least try to distinguish between wishful thinking and an objective analysis. I know the Kippers have nowhere else to go....that's what I was saying. It's interesting that its the tories they have come home to. Clearly that is where they most feel at home! Mayhem is popular at present but she has little to offer idealogically and lets see how popular she is in a few years time when the effects of brexit kick in. You also clearly know nothing about the Labour Party except what you read in your Daily Mail.

"Wishful thinking" might also include hoping that the "effects of brexit" are sufficiently negative to worry people.

Mind you, I'm not that convinced that the Labour Party is a "vicious Marxist rabble". Most of 'em know SFA about Marxism. Even those that claim to are just a bunch of revisionists. I don't know how 'vicious' they are.

ThinkingOutLoud_2

antrobus wrote: »

"Wishful thinking" might also include hoping that the "effects of brexit" are sufficiently negative to worry people.

Mind you, I'm not that convinced that the Labour Party is a "vicious Marxist rabble". Most of 'em know SFA about Marxism. Even those that claim to are just a bunch of revisionists. I don't know how 'vicious' they are.

Pretty sad day if any UK party hopes the nation suffer because of Brexit, just so they can gain power. Be better if they could be elected on the merit of their policies and no more.

westernpromise

Being a vicious Marxist rabble or an anti-Semite isn't really a policy you can sell though.

The left always has to pretend to be something it's not to get elected.

BobQ

westernpromise wrote: »

But they were not sold it by the Conservatives. May was a Remainer.

You think that that nuance will make a difference? I think May will get the credit or the blame based on how people feel about their lot. It will not matter what she thought as an individual. Not saying what she has done is wrong, just that she has made a choice.

May had options after Cameron resigned, she made choices which now mean that she is forever associated with a hardline option with which the average UKIP supporter is comfortable. She could just as easily have chosen a middle way that was more consistent with a narrowly divided nation. Her silence during the campaign also gave the impression that May was unenthusiastic over remaining.

sevenhills

antrobus wrote: »

UK Polling Report has news on four new polls for Sunday;

YouGov: CON 47%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 11%(+1)

No real change. CON lead still in the 15%-20% ballpark.

2017 local election share of the vote = CON/38% LABOUR/27% LIBERAL DEMOCRAT/18%

Still a 11% gap, but essentially a Tory win.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2017

westernpromise

sevenhills wrote: »

2017 local election share of the vote = CON/38% LABOUR/27% LIBERAL DEMOCRAT/18%

Still a 11% gap, but essentially a Tory win.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2017

The local elections were not a representative poll. You might just as well look at Scotland and from there extrapolate that the SNP are going to win the general election.

westernpromise

BobQ wrote: »

She could just as easily have chosen a middle way that was more consistent with a narrowly divided nation.

No she couldn't. That would require the EU's co-operation which was unlikely to be forthcoming. The choices are between May, who comes over as a tough cookie; Farron, who comes across as a quisling; and Corbyn, who, well, is Corbyn.

In the same way that in 1992 Major was elected because he was better than Kinnock, so it will be. But May looks likely to get such a crushing majority that it will take Labour 3 more GEs to overturn it if they don't disband first.

antrobus

sevenhills wrote: »

2017 local election share of the vote = CON/38% LABOUR/27% LIBERAL DEMOCRAT/18%

Still a 11% gap, but essentially a Tory win.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2017

Those figures are not the "local election share of the vote" they are the Projected National Vote Share. Calculated for the BBC by John Curtice, I believe.

This is what Electoral Calculus says about the PNVS (Making sense of the locals)

the PNVS is not a great guide to the general election. It usually understates the Conservatives and overstates the Lib Dems. This is not surprising, since local elections aren't a good guide in the first place.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

They believe that the PNVS equates with a GE result of CON 44% LAB 28%, a 16 point lead. Which is entirely consistent with the lastest polls. And previous experience, as in 1983, shows that single digit CON leads in local elections translates to a double digit lead in a June general election.

PixelPound

It does look like May will win with somewhere between a slightly increased majority or a landslide, unless there is a key swing event. In 1992 Kinnocks pre-election day victory rally in Sheffield meant a combination of people feeling they didn't need to vote or disdain for his presumptuousness gave enough of a swing to defy the polls. In 2015 the "vote labour get SNP" swung people who didn't really want more austerity but definitely didn't want SNP more to change.

The Britain against the EU is definitely one, but the question is, has it been deployed too early and effects will wane by polling day. Headlines like the 100 billion euro bill do help bolster her position

antrobus

BobQ wrote: »

... She could just as easily have chosen a middle way that was more consistent with a narrowly divided nation. ....

What middle way?

Either the UK is a member of the EU or it isn't. There is no pick and mix option available.