the snap general election thread

Thrugelmir

Zxcv_Bnm wrote: »

So UKIP is holding onto the BNP who still hate everyone, but the others have gone home except that Lab is leaking to the Greens and LDs as well.

Perhaps many in the traditional Labour seats will simply abstain in a few weeks time. The Greens aren't exactly mainstream in their policy thinking.

ThinkingOutLoud_2

Zxcv_Bnm wrote: »

... Not necessarily by much. But especially if one side does something stupid...

So May will defeat Corbyn. Not by 22 points though...

Does that margin not depend on someone not doing or saying something stupid per your own argument

I know which "leader(s)" I reckon will come through on that, if anyone does so.

sevenhills

antrobus wrote: »

As far as I can see the BBC PNVS for the 2016 locals was;

The issue with locals would be that (1) turnout is lower, and (2) people do sometimes vote differently. That YouGov poll I referred to earlier suggests that Welsh voters (at least) where planning to do so.

I meant the 3% increase is small, given the Liberal Democrats great by-election performances in recent times.

People should vote totally differently, to the national polls, but unfortunately voters are sucked in to voting for the best performing party and not their best local candidate.

It will be interesting how co-operation between the parties affects the results. UKIP standing down to help the Tories and the Liberal Democrats and Greens helping each other.

westernpromise

I would be quite surprised if the final outcome is as high as today's reported 22% lead. I reckon some of the pollsters are now overstating the Tories having previously understated them.

Although with that said, it is hard to see Corbyn doing as well as Miliband, and the LibDems and UKIP are both busted flushes so it's not obvious where else their lost votes can go other than to May.

BobQ

antrobus wrote: »

What middle way?

Either the UK is a member of the EU or it isn't. There is no pick and mix option available.

There is always a middle way. The EEA is a middle way, there are others that she rejected the day the white paper was issued. In effect the decision was to follow the way she thought the 52% meant by YES. The reason that she now pretends the nation is unified is because she has effectively ignored the views of the 48%.

mrginge

BobQ wrote: »

There is always a middle way. The EEA is a middle way, there are others that she rejected the day the white paper was issued. In effect the decision was to follow the way she thought the 52% meant by YES. The reason that she now pretends the nation is unified is because she has effectively ignored the views of the 48%.

She's given the 48% the chance to vote for Tim Farron. What more could she have done?

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

There is always a middle way.

Hardly a middle way. As immigration is not addressed.

westernpromise

BobQ wrote: »

There is always a middle way. The EEA is a middle way, there are others that she rejected the day the white paper was issued. In effect the decision was to follow the way she thought the 52% meant by YES. The reason that she now pretends the nation is unified is because she has effectively ignored the views of the 48%.

Go on then. In what sense is the EEA a middle way?

Enterprise_1701C

BobQ wrote: »

There is always a middle way. The EEA is a middle way, there are others that she rejected the day the white paper was issued. In effect the decision was to follow the way she thought the 52% meant by YES. The reason that she now pretends the nation is unified is because she has effectively ignored the views of the 48%.

So, with the French election being 66% to 34%, would you expect Macron to kowtow to the 34% all the time?

The numbers are irrelevant, the fact is that Leave won.

I voted remain. But, after the way the eu are acting, I am now glad we are leaving. I do not want a middle way if that involves still being dictated to by the eu.

antrobus

BobQ wrote: »

There is always a middle way. The EEA is a middle way, there are others that she rejected the day the white paper was issued. In effect the decision was to follow the way she thought the 52% meant by YES. The reason that she now pretends the nation is unified is because she has effectively ignored the views of the 48%.

This is what it says in the EEA treaty;

Any European State becoming a member of the Community shall, and the Swiss Confederation or any European State becoming a member of EFTA may, apply to become a party to this Agreement.

There is no provision for anybody else to join the EEA. It is only available to EU and EFTA members.

There is no 'middle way'.