the snap general election thread

sevenhills

antrobus wrote: »

I trust Electoral Calculus a lot more than I trust Wikipedia.:)

In any event, I am just trying to explain to you what the PNVS means.

Wiki does not say Electoral Calculus has a bias, so its ok for now.

It was not my intention to post anything mis-leading. But I am still looking for the actual local election voting percentages.
The 18% figure is an increase of 3% on the previous year, which is perhaps rather low.

antrobus

sevenhills wrote: »

Wiki does not say Electoral Calculus has a bias, so its ok for now.

It was not my intention to post anything mis-leading. But I am still looking for the actual local election voting percentages.
The 18% figure is an increase of 3% on the previous year, which is perhaps rather low.

As far as I can see the BBC PNVS for the 2016 locals was;

Con 30, Lab 31, LD 15, UKIP 12, and Others 12.
https://electionsetc.com/2016/05/06/bbc-projected-national-share-pns-of-the-vote-2016/

For 2017 it was Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5, and Others 12.

I'm not aware of any source that has aggregated the local election results. Which I suspect is what you mean.

The issue with locals would be that (1) turnout is lower, and (2) people do sometimes vote differently. That YouGov poll I referred to earlier suggests that Welsh voters (at least) where planning to do so.

gfplux

Yah_Boo_Sux wrote: »

Here:

https://www.transportfocus.org.uk/research-publications/research/national-passenger-survey-introduction/

From that the actual report:
http://d3cez36w5wymxj.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/23205222/National-Rail-Passenger-Survey-%E2%80%93-NRPS-%E2%80%93-Autumn-2016-%E2%80%93-Main-Report.pdf

Section 3:1 - Overall Satisfaction:


Now if you really insist upon debating the finery, fine.
That is your right.
But (again) in a new thread please?
NOT in this one.

I have started a new thread at
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/72517087#Comment_72517087

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

I have started a new thread at
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/72517087#Comment_72517087

Good.
Perhaps you need a read of: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=72516115&postcount=19681
From the Brexit thread:
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5390860
Which you yourself started.
It explains very simply why - despite your continued pro-EU propaganda, implications and assertions - so many here in the UK do not want the EU.

You are becoming like the forum version of a double-glazing salesman.
Trying to sell an expensive product that we don't really need at a hugely-inflated price and becoming upset when no-one is buying it.

Perhaps you need a change of direction?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Tory support at record levels according to the latest ICM poll:

British Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party has opened up the biggest lead on record for polls conducted by research firm ICM, suggesting it remains on course for a sweeping win in a national election in a month's time.
An ICM poll published on Monday, which was conducted immediately after the Conservatives scored big wins in local elections last week, gave May's party a 22-point lead over the opposition Labour Party ahead of the June 8 national election.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-icm-idUKKBN1841J9?il=0

Moby

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Tory support at record levels according to the latest ICM poll:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-icm-idUKKBN1841J9?il=0

That's a massive landslide lead when you consider the incumbent Govmt then tends to perform better in a General Election following a Local Election! May seems to have consolidated her lead amongst all tories, completely taken over the UKIP vote and the neutrals are coming her way as well because they basically believe she is the safest pair of hands to negotiate and deliver Brexit.

Filo25

Moby wrote: »

That's a massive landslide lead when you consider the incumbent Govmt then tends to perform better in a General Election following a Local Election! May seems to have consolidated her lead amongst all tories, completely taken over the UKIP vote and the neutrals are coming her way as well because they basically believe she is the safest pair of hands to negotiate and deliver Brexit.

Her competition for leadership amongst the other national parties isn't exactly impressive it has to be said!

Zxcv_Bnm

There are really only two national parties so the side with the best leader usually wins

Thatcher defeated Callaghan
Thatcher defeated Foot
Thatcher defeated Kinnock
Major defeated Kinnock
Blair defeated Major
Blair defeated Hague
Blair defeated Howard
Cameron defeated Brown
Cameron defeated Miliband

What all the above have in common is the one who looked most plausible won. Not necessarily by much. But especially if one side does something stupid (Sheffield rally - Kinnock, "I don't believe we spent too much" - Miliband) they get blown away.

So May will defeat Corbyn. Not by 22 points though. Whenever we get an election where one side is polling that much higher, it always ends up in the low teens on the day (Thatcher in 83, Blair in 97).

Zxcv_Bnm

Moby wrote: »

That's a massive landslide lead when you consider the incumbent Govmt then tends to perform better in a General Election following a Local Election! May seems to have consolidated her lead amongst all tories, completely taken over the UKIP vote and the neutrals are coming her way as well because they basically believe she is the safest pair of hands to negotiate and deliver Brexit.

I reckon the UKIP vote has always been two things

1) the BNP
2) Eurosceptics of all parties - most Con, some Labour

The ratio of Con:Lab is probably about 2:1 looking at the referendum splits.

So UKIP is holding onto the BNP who still hate everyone, but the others have gone home except that Lab is leaking to the Greens and LDs as well.

This is how you'd get to a 22 point lead.

We will at least find out what Labour's floor is. They couldn't have a worse leader than Corbyn so anyone who votes for them will do so in any circumstances.

chris_m

Zxcv_Bnm wrote: »

They couldn't have a worse leader than Corbyn

I'm sure they could - Abbott?

Luckily for them, they chose Miliband junior instead.