the snap general election thread

Yah_Boo_Sux

gfplux wrote: »

A link to "the official and very recent statistics" will settle the matter. Thank you.

Here:

Download the most recent NRPS report from Autumn 2016 (published January 2017)

https://www.transportfocus.org.uk/research-publications/research/national-passenger-survey-introduction/

From that the actual report:
http://d3cez36w5wymxj.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/23205222/National-Rail-Passenger-Survey-%E2%80%93-NRPS-%E2%80%93-Autumn-2016-%E2%80%93-Main-Report.pdf

Section 3:1 - Overall Satisfaction:

% of passengers satisfied/good by sector:
London and South East**** 80%
Long-distance 86%
Regional 84%

Now if you really insist upon debating the finery, fine.
That is your right.
But (again) in a new thread please?
NOT in this one.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Some of the latest polls:

Opinium had the Conservatives 16 percentage points ahead of Labour on 46 to 30 percent of those surveyed but another poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times newspaper put them 19 points clear, a six-point increase over last week. An ORB poll had the Conservatives extending their lead over Labour by four points to 15 percent.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-polls-idUKKBN1820RC


Meanwhile the Independent is suggesting that a third of people will vote tactically to try and block the Tories:

One third of people are prepared to vote tactically at next month’s general election in order to prevent a hard Brexit, according to an exclusive poll for The Independent.
Supporters of such a strategy said the findings showed that tactical voting could deny Theresa May a landslide on 8 June despite the Conservatives’ triumph in last Thursday’s local elections.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2017-tactical-voting-progressive-alliance-hard-brexit-block-tories-a7721551.html

I'm not about to deny the possibility but IMHO the degree to which this is suggested (using ORB) here seems somewhat hopeful on their part, especially given ORB's reference to increasing Tory majority above.

WengerIn

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Some of the latest polls:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-polls-idUKKBN1820RC


Meanwhile the Independent is suggesting that a third of people will vote tactically to try and block the Tories:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2017-tactical-voting-progressive-alliance-hard-brexit-block-tories-a7721551.html

I'm not about to deny the possibility but IMHO the degree to which this is suggested (using ORB) here seems somewhat hopeful on their part, especially given ORB's reference to increasing Tory majority above.

Any idea what the Anyone But Tories number was prior to previous elections? I have voted tactically when I lived in an area where there was a slight possibility of the BNP getting in and so voted Labour. I certainly didn't want Labour to win the election (they did) but I really, really didn't want to be represented by a fascist in parliament.

antrobus

WengerIn wrote: »

Any idea what the Anyone But Tories number was prior to previous elections? I have voted tactically when I lived in an area where there was a slight possibility of the BNP getting in and so voted Labour. I certainly didn't want Labour to win the election (they did) but I really, really didn't want to be represented by a fascist in parliament.

Not the foggiest.

But the Independent says that "Overall, 30 per cent of people would consider voting for a different candidate to stop a hard Brexit." My guess would be a very similar number for 'Anyone But Tories' in previous contests.

This kind of progressive alliance/tactical voting malarkey always crops up when the Cons are looking good. I'm not convinced it will make much difference.

This site has a tactical voting guide for those who want to stop the Conservatives.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/tactical-voting/conservative

As far as I can see, the advice is mainly 'vote Labour.

antrobus

UK Polling Report has news on four new polls for Sunday;

YouGov: CON 47%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 11%(+1), UKIP 6%(+1)
ORB: CON 46%(+4), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 8%(nc)
Opinium: CON 46%(-1), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 7%(nc)
ICM: CON 46%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 8%(nc)

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9872

No real change. CON lead still in the 15%-20% ballpark.

Moby

Brexit has caused huge re-alignment of politics in the UK. UKIP has been swallowed by the tories and the split within the tory ranks is healed behind 'the best deal we can get'. The tories have always been best at compromising principles for the pursuit of power,:p (honourable exception of Clarke, Heseltine etc). A concern for them surely will be that the re-entry of the kippers will toxify them again and they'll have their loony racist fringe back! The remain camp is fractured and disparate. Corbyn is the main problem, the Lib Dems are weak and also have poor leadership, the SNP, Plaid etc are nationalists so only semi interested and the Greens are still fringe. The strength of the opposition to May will be shaped by how brexit goes economically and politically. May clearly wants a softer brexit than many in her camp.....can she face them down and how will she manage continual leaking and briefing by the 27 who will only be too happy to stir things up in the coming years. Interesting times!

westernpromise

Moby wrote: »

The succession went to the wrong Miliband and it was downhill all the way from there.

The other Miliband is another vacillating unprincipled empty suit. I wouldn't rely on him riding to the rescue.

westernpromise

Moby wrote: »

A concern for them surely will be that the re-entry of the kippers will toxify them again and they'll have their loony racist fringe back!

Dream on.

For the last 30 years all talk of "Tory splits" has related to the EU. That ship has now sailed. What's left to split about? Post this GE the Tories will be an ideologically united party under a popular leader with a huge mandate and three election victories under their belts.

Labour will continue to be a vicious Marxist rabble with a few north London liberals in the mix who think Milibland will save them.

Cameron sent a very clear message to UKIPpers to s0d off, then won a majority without them. They have nowhere else to go.

wotsthat

westernpromise wrote: »

For the last 30 years all talk of "Tory splits" has related to the EU. That ship has now sailed. What's left to split about? Post this GE the Tories will be an ideologically united party under a popular leader with a huge mandate and three election victories under their belts.

Quite a prediction given it's less than a year since a Tory PM lost his job because of Europe.

Europe's shores still have the potential to wreck Tory careers. They just can't help themselves.

Moby

westernpromise wrote: »

Dream on.

For the last 30 years all talk of "Tory splits" has related to the EU. That ship has now sailed. What's left to split about? Post this GE the Tories will be an ideologically united party under a popular leader with a huge mandate and three election victories under their belts.

Labour will continue to be a vicious Marxist rabble with a few north London liberals in the mix who think Milibland will save them.

Cameron sent a very clear message to UKIPpers to s0d off, then won a majority without them. They have nowhere else to go.

Guff....at least try to distinguish between wishful thinking and an objective analysis. I know the Kippers have nowhere else to go....that's what I was saying. It's interesting that its the tories they have come home to. Clearly that is where they most feel at home! Mayhem is popular at present but she has little to offer idealogically and lets see how popular she is in a few years time when the effects of brexit kick in. You also clearly know nothing about the Labour Party except what you read in your Daily Mail.