the snap general election thread

sevenhills

westernpromise wrote: »

The most extraordinarily skilful thing Cameron did was to detoxify the Conservative party by getting rid of its loonies into UKIP, and then emphasising the fact by dismissing them as loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists.

The hatred for him that then spewed forth from UKIP made it abundantly clear that his party had nothing in common with Farage's lot, and made it impossible for Labour to argue that a vote for Cameron was a vote for UKIP.

Cameron then went on to win a majority that clearly did not rely on a single vote from the Faragista hard right.

I think UKIP was supported by Tory donors; but they were very sly in that they targeted Labour, that left their old mates - the Torys to win votes from Labour and let the Torys win the 2015 election.

westernpromise

Cameron actually looks more like a genius with every passing day. He destroyed he LibDems as well, via the coalition, which cost them 40+ of their 50-odd seats. He has destroyed UKIP by using them to detoxify the Tories and now Labour is determined to destroy itself. He really was remarkable. I do miss him.

kabayiri

UKIP.

In less than a quarter of a century they go from nothing to influencing one of the biggest issues to impact the UK in hundreds of years.

It's either genius on the part of these individuals, or the sorry state of mainstream politics which has been failing ordinary voters for decades.

martinsurrey

Spidernick wrote: »

Interesting points, but if you think that the rail system is efficient, I would suggest that you don't go on trains that often. If you live in Surrey then presumably, like me, you are 'served' by South West Trains. They may seem efficient compared to Southern (which also runs through my station), but regular commuters wouldn't agree with you and complaints are at (or close to) record levels, I believe.

I do agree that it isn't anywhere near perfect, but record complaints in absolute terms means nothing if the number of passengers has doubled.

the South East is a bit of a mess currently, but that hopefully will be lessened with capacity upgrades and the end of the strikes about drivers opening doors.

I know this is wikipedia but it has everything in one place and you can follow to the sources.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Great_Britain

Since privatization satisfaction is up, complaints are down ( as a percentage of users), number of journeys has more than doubled and the public subsidy is under a 3rd of the closest rival country (France), and fallen per journey by over 50% since privitisation, so while our trains are expensive to buy tickets, the French tax payer contributes 3 times what the UK gov does, money coming from taxes DOESN'T mean the French system is cheaper.

wotsthat

westernpromise wrote: »

Cameron actually looks more like a genius with every passing day. He destroyed he LibDems as well, via the coalition, which cost them 40+ of their 50-odd seats. He has destroyed UKIP by using them to detoxify the Tories and now Labour is determined to destroy itself. He really was remarkable. I do miss him.

I agree (although destroying the Lib Dems was a happy accident). It'll be interesting to see how history judges him because the Tories are currently airbrushing him and Osborne out.

One the one hand he calculated the referendum would lead to a Tory GE victory but on the other he was a remainer.

westernpromise

It is pretty clear that a result of 48:52 Leave:Remain instead of the opposite would have been bad news by now for the Tories. It would not have shot UKIP's fox - they'd be whining that it was unfair - and nor would it have bought off the eurosceptic wing of the party. What is reconciling the europhile wing is the likelihood that Brexit will look a lot like Remain so the discontent isn't as palpable and the Tories are more Leavey anyway.

On such small things do fortunes turn.Labour under Corbyn would still be annihilated, but it would be in 2020 not 2017 because the polls would not look as bad for him as they do since the Brexit vote, and it would be a 50-seat rather than 150-seat majority.

As it stands there seems every chance of a 2017 majority so large it will take Labour three more elections to overturn it.

The crumb of comfort for Labour here is that their WWC vote has haemorrhaged not to UKIP but to May. She won't be there forever and getting votes back off post-May Tories seems like it will be easier than getting them back off a party that had successfully replaced them as the natural home for the WWC. That is what UKIP should have been doing but has failed to do. Likewise their supporters are not going to the LibDems either, where again they may have felt quite at home.

The real problem is that the only bit of the Labour message former Labour / Blairite voters have heard is "sod off and join the Tories" which is what they're now doing. Those shrieking that the loudest are already lining up to blame the PLP, and the 172 who expressed no confidence in Corbyn, for the imminent defeat.

The next 6 months are going to be existentially crucial to Labour's future. If Corbyn and his cronies retain control of the party after the GE then it really is game over for Labour.

antrobus

wotsthat wrote: »

I agree (although destroying the Lib Dems was a happy accident). It'll be interesting to see how history judges him because the Tories are currently airbrushing him and Osborne out.

One the one hand he calculated the referendum would lead to a Tory GE victory but on the other he was a remainer.

Happy accident? I thought it was the decapitation strategy.:)

In 2015, the Conservatives' "decapitation strategy" across southern England relied on a ruthlessly efficient "joined-up" campaign, driven by Conservative headquarters in co-operation with local parties. Huge sums were thrown at key south and south-west battlegrounds for nine months or more. The thinly-resourced Liberals were out-gunned.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/constituencies-where-liberal-democrats-can-take-tories

antrobus

Anyway, in other news, UKIP show signs of life.

According to the BBC, they have won a council seat!

In Lancashire, Padiham and Burnley West ward. A gain from Labour. Cue jokes about a party so useless it can lose a seat to UKIP.:)

westernpromise

antrobus wrote: »

Happy accident? I thought it was the decapitation strategy.:)

In 2015, the Conservatives' "decapitation strategy" across southern England relied on a ruthlessly efficient "joined-up" campaign, driven by Conservative headquarters in co-operation with local parties. Huge sums were thrown at key south and south-west battlegrounds for nine months or more. The thinly-resourced Liberals were out-gunned.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/constituencies-where-liberal-democrats-can-take-tories

I wouldn't be all that surprised to see the LDs lose all their remaining MPs. I don't say it's likely, but it's surely possible. They seem as likely to me to lose half a dozen seats as to gain them given that they are now facing a united right and centre right that is also taking Labour votes.

chris_m

westernpromise wrote: »

I wouldn't be all that surprised to see the LDs lose all their remaining MPs. I don't say it's likely, but it's surely possible.

Oh yes please, one in particular springs to mind.