the snap general election thread

WengerIn

westernpromise wrote: »

I wouldn't be all that surprised to see the LDs lose all their remaining MPs. I don't say it's likely, but it's surely possible. They seem as likely to me to lose half a dozen seats as to gain them given that they are now facing a united right and centre right that is also taking Labour votes.

I'd be very surprised.

Labour appears to have lost England outside the big cities. The Lib Dems are likely to be big winners from that.

This map shows who was second last time around:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11595121/Election-2015-second-place-results-How-it-all-could-have-been-so-different.html

Those yellow dots in the North could well end up as Lib Dem seats plus they could pick up a couple of seats in the midlands in 3-way marginals as Labour voters can't bear to vote Tory support the Lib Dems.

antrobus

WengerIn wrote: »

..Those yellow dots in the North could well end up as Lib Dem seats plus they could pick up a couple of seats in the midlands in 3-way marginals as Labour voters can't bear to vote Tory support the Lib Dems.

Here is a list of LD target seats.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

No idea as to which seats the LDs might be targetting. I'd only point out that a lot of those Con heald seats have a chunky UKIP vote. Given that the polls suggest (and I expect) a lot of that UKIP vote to go somewhere else other than the LDs, those may not be the ones they throw money at.

They might have a good go in Cambridge though.

westernpromise

WengerIn wrote: »

I'd be very surprised.

Labour appears to have lost England outside the big cities. The Lib Dems are likely to be big winners from that.

Why?

a/ the LibDems are going backwards, not forwards. They've taken a beating today and they usually do better in locals than GEs
b/ the choice is May or Corbyn. Why risk Corbyn?
c/ May is polling 50% for a reason.

westernpromise

Taking a long view, nothing lasts forever and Labour's recovery probably starts here, or if not then on 9th June. They either disband or they recover, because they can't go on like this.

UKIP should disband but are insufficiently self aware to do so. Since Nuttall took over from Fartage he has lost

• UKIP's biggest donor
• all but one council seat
• a by-election in the Leaviest constituency in the country
• the party's only MP.

He's not exactly full of win, is he?

ThinkingOutLoud_2

westernpromise wrote: »

Taking a long view, nothing lasts forever and Labour's recovery probably starts here, or if not then on 9th June. They either disband or they recover, because they can't go on like this.

UKIP should disband but are insufficiently self aware to do so. Since Nuttall took over from Fartage he has lost

• UKIP's biggest donor
• all but one council seat
• a by-election in the Leaviest constituency in the country
• the party's only MP.

TBH I suspect Farage would not have stopped any of that.

UKIP are a spent farce.

westernpromise

Final LE results:

All results in: GB
Con 1883 +557
Lab 1137 -385
Lib Dem 437 -37
Green 40 +6
UKIP 1 -141
Ind 648 -13
SNP 431 -7
PC 202 +33
Other 22 -13

Astounding really. One winner, everyone else a loser.

Thrugelmir

westernpromise wrote: »

Taking a long view, nothing lasts forever and Labour's recovery probably starts here, or if not then on 9th June. They either disband or they recover, because they can't go on like this.

Been here before. Took some years to find the Blair\Brown combo. This time there's nothing but disarray.

antrobus

westernpromise wrote: »

Final LE results:

All results in: GB
Con 1883 +557
Lab 1137 -385
Lib Dem 437 -37
Green 40 +6
UKIP 1 -141
Ind 648 -13
SNP 431 -7
PC 202 +33
Other 22 -13

Astounding really. One winner, everyone else a loser.

Except PC, up 33 seats.:)

And (of course) the SNP still won in Scotland since they won more seats than anybody else. (That's what the SNP will say anyway.)

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Been here before. Took some years to find the Blair\Brown combo. This time there's nothing but disarray.

Blair/ Brown were helped by the Tories being in total disarray. Yet here we are with the roles reversed. Nothing's forever.

antrobus

wotsthat wrote: »

Blair/ Brown were helped by the Tories being in total disarray. Yet here we are with the roles reversed. Nothing's forever.

Not even the Labour Party.:)