the snap general election thread

steampowered

hallmark wrote: »

What you & other's are failing to grasp is that what the Tories like most of all is to be in power.

You seem to have an incredibly binary view of the world.

There is an enormous difference between being in power with the ability to pass whatever you want, and being a lame duck Prime Minister that has to cave into the demands of even the smallest group of backbench rebels.

You could bet your bottom dollar that Theresa May will be taking a risk and rolling the dice with another election if she thinks it would give her a reasonable majority.

Perhaps if you spend a bit less time trolling MSE, and a bit more time educating yourself about how the world works, you wouldn't be making posts like this.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

masterwilde wrote: »

This cannot happen, allegedly we voted brexit on immigration and security, yet May is offering a soft border - rediculous

A hard Brexit is now completely off the table...

YouGov were one of only two pollsters that called this election correctly as a Tory loss and a hung parliament.

Here's their latest poll on Brexit... Conducted last week.

In negotiating Brexit, do you think the next Government should or should not try for a deal to stay inside the Single Market?

They should 50
They should not 21
Don’t know 29

In negotiating Britain’s departure from the European Union, do you think our government should offer EU citizens the right to travel, work, study or retire in Britain, in exchange for EU countries giving British citizens the same rights?

They should 62
They should not 17
Don’t know 21

In negotiating Britain’s departure from the European Union, do you think our government should or should not try to preserve the rights of British citizens to travel, work, study or retire in the rest of Europe?

They should 69
They should not 10
Don’t know 21

Do you think our government should or should not allow free movement of people between Britain and EU countries in exchange for the EU allowing British businesses full access to the European Single Market?

They should 43
They should not 31
Don’t know 26

Given that's the position of the British people - and Theresa May went completely the opposite direction - it's no wonder she lost her majority.

A sensible, compromise, centrist, Brexit... likely staying in the single market, is now the only way to get it through parliament.

hallmark

steampowered wrote: »

You could bet your bottom dollar that Theresa May will be taking a risk and rolling the dice with another election if she thinks it would give her a reasonable majority.

Haha I would most certainly bet my bottom dollar that won't happen again. If you think May would be allowed to call another snap election I think you're misunderstanding the Tory party :rotfl:

Rinoa

CKhalvashi wrote: »

And remember that the Conservatives were less than 1000 votes targeted in the right areas from not even making a DUP coalition possible.

Like I said, I think we'll be back at the polls this year, and a 1% swing away from the Conservatives will be catastrophic this time. I am willing to take a bet that it's what will happen, and there will be a Lab/SNP coalition.

Do you think the conservatives will run:

1. The same election campaign
2. A different one

hallmark

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A hard Brexit is now completely off the table...

YouGov were one of only two pollsters that called this election correctly as a Tory loss and a hung parliament.

Here's their latest poll on Brexit... Conducted last week.



Given that's the position of the British people - and Theresa May went completely the opposite direction - it's no wonder she lost her majority.

A sensible, compromise, centrist, Brexit... likely staying in the single market, is now the only way to get it through parliament.

Hmm, how did the pollsters do when it came to calling the EU referendum result.....?

hallmark

StevieJ wrote: »

That wouldn't be the ones that live in Kensington though, would it?

Absolutely. They'll get a Tory Govt just like every other part of the UK :j

Corbyn will still be in charge of his allotment.

Rinoa

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Given that's the position of the British people - and Theresa May went completely the opposite direction - it's no wonder she lost her majority.

The vast majority of voters don't understand the nuances of Brexit.

They voted Labour because they were promised lots of free stuff.

CKhalvashi

Rinoa wrote: »

Do you think the conservatives will run:

1. The same election campaign
2. A different one

I think very possibly for as long as May is in charge and there is no credible leadership candidate (I'd be looking for either Ruth Davidson who isn't an MP, or Amber Rudd who may not be an MP at the next election) the damage is done.

I think now it's been proven Corbyn has what it takes to gain seats against the odds, a lot more people will put their trust in him.

I think many people went into the polling station to vote for Labout, thought about it for a minute, and came out having voted for someone else. I also think that mental barrier now is reasonably likely to have gone for many.

We are in a difficult era of politics, and I think that a centrist Brexit is more likely to send me back to the Conservatives (as I voted in 2015) than keep me with the party I voted for at this election. I think if they try anything but, many of the liberal Conservative voters are likely to desert them and that they may not get the traditional support from those going into retirement stretching a generation.

In short, if they pursue a hard Brexit model now, especially with the public opinion quoted above, this will be the final nail in the coffin when an election inevitably will need to be called again during the negotiations.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Rinoa wrote: »

The vast majority of voters don't understand the nuances of Brexit.

They voted Labour because they were promised lots of free stuff.

I voted labour for the simple reason that I see suffering and misery on a daily basis, I work in child protection, my wife is a nurse, both areas are lacking the critical funding they deserve and I would happily pay more to support them. The only party offering this is labour. Our household income is just over £60k so we're not some lazy workshy scum like you're suggesting the majority of labour voters are. Time to grow up.

hallmark

Rinoa wrote: »

The vast majority of voters don't understand the nuances of Brexit.

They voted Labour because they were promised lots of free stuff.

And also (which still doesn't seem to have been really grasped) Corbyn's "improvement" was nothing like as much as people think because the early polls giving May a huge lead were clearly the innaccurate ones.

With the benefit of hindsight it's pretty obvious that the by-elections, the local elections & those early polls were all instances of die-hard Labour supporters expressing their disapproval of Corbyn by giving Labour a kicking. However when it came to the actual election most of them simply voted as they always voted.

May made many mistakes. First she believed those early polls. Then she focussed her campaign on that basis, targetting Labour marginals she believed were in play when she should have been protecting Tory seats. That was compounded by a hideous manifesto & topped off with a very weak performance by herself.

As has been pointed out, it says something about how hopeless Corbyn & his lot are that in those circumstances they still only delivered a Kinnock / Gordon Brown level of performance.

Whenever the next election is, the Tories will have a different leader, a different manifesto & a different campaign. If they're facing the same opposition they'll be laughing.