the snap general election thread

economic

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Makes you wonder what the Corbyn win what have done. Lower pound boosts competitiveness though. Not good for those remitting money home .

lower pound boost compettiiveness only if we export - we happen to have a fairly large trade deficit as well. this is why any uk exposure i own is mainly in ftse100 companies. i am long ftse100 and overwiehgt major tabaco companies.

masterwilde

Pound was doing fine through the night, no major drops at all when discussions were taken place about a potential labour government or conservative minority. The only big drop happened on announcement of the exit poll

GreatApe

Sure it was no great, but it could have been worse. They are still in government and control when to call the next election once they get their house in order

Right after the vote the left were dancing in the streets thinking the tories are going to tear themselves apart and call an election in 6 months time after having spend 5 months !!!!!!!! on each other for losing the election. Errrr No. Why would they do that other than in a lefties day dreams?

They keep her or they get rid of her, either way they will try to get their house in order and place some time between the next cycle and this one before they go to the polls again.

I think they will wait it out for the full 5 years, I hope they are not dumb enough to even think about going to the electorate again for at least 2 years

masterwilde

GreatApe wrote: »

Sure it was no great, but it could have been worse. They are still in government and control when to call the next election once they get their house in order

Right after the vote the left were dancing in the streets thinking the tories are going to tear themselves apart and call an election in 6 months time after having spend 5 months !!!!!!!! on each other for losing the election. Errrr No. Why would they do that other than in a lefties day dreams?

They keep her or they get rid of her, either way they will try to get their house in order and place some time between the next cycle and this one before they go to the polls again.

I think they will wait it out for the full 5 years, I hope they are not dumb enough to even think about going to the electorate again for at least 2 years

That's the pig in the room though, they can't get the brexit they wanted now. She no longer holds the all the power

Joe_Horner

GreatApe wrote: »

What happens with by-elections?
How many do they need to lose to lose the house or force another election?

Technically two, in practice 6 thanks to Sinn Fein. Always assuming they don't decide to take their seats after all with a Tory DUP deal.

In the 1st year after the 2015 election there were 3 and there were 4 in the first year after 2010.

GreatApe

masterwilde wrote: »

That's the pig in the room though, they can't get the brexit they wanted now. She no longer holds the all the power

Could she have got a hard brexit done and dusted if she had stuck with her small majority a week ago?

If not then its no worse on that front.

Once more this is not a good result but they have control, they are going to form the new government and they have control on how and when to change leader and get their house in order before trying again. They wont call an election in 6 months time having spent 5 months craping on each other to go up against a more unified labor party. That is a left dream the tories are not that dumb

CKhalvashi

GreatApe wrote: »

I think they will wait it out for the full 5 years, I hope they are not dumb enough to even think about going to the electorate again for at least 2 years

I don't think they're going to be able to.

Actually, I'm expecting the first huge hurdle to be the Great Repeal Bill. That on its own could be sending us back to the polls.

This isn't about not getting on with Brexit, it's about not allowing the government to have the power to change laws without parliamentary scrutiny.

The highest court in the land has effectively stated that only Parliament can change laws that they created, so anything less is effectively contempt of court. I would expect to see any MP tried for that if they voted to waive that right, and if that did not happen I would be asking serious questions as to why not.

May holds so little power at the moment (despite holding the largest seat share), and whilst this is bad for her, it may prove to be the best thing for the country overall.

My logic has been right on many other things recently, so even if you're not taking it seriously, give it serious consideration at the back of your mind.

CKhalvashi

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Save face from what? Her poor campaign may have lost the Tories seats. Still the largest party by some considerable distance. May have lost this battle but not the war. You have the feeling that she's not the sort of person to walk away or make excuses either. Jury is still out. Brexit negotiations will decide her fate.

Did May have a majority at the dissolution of Parliament?

Does May have a majority now on her own?

Her authority is in tatters, she told the public to trust her, and the public said no. Do you really want someone who has no authority with their electorate and has been known to backtrack repeatedly under pressure negotiating for you?

hallmark wrote: »

Haha, with sources like that the Tories must be quaking in their boots:rotfl::rotfl:

Better to have the rundown from someone who knows more than I do, than someone who doesn't.

I prefer speaking to someone with real world experience speaking personally than someone without real would experience saying what their boss wants them to say for whatever reason (e.g the press).

If you won't allow a reasonable debate about the topic, then there's little point in you being here.

steampowered

GreatApe wrote: »

Right after the vote the left were dancing in the streets thinking the tories are going to tear themselves apart and call an election in 6 months time after having spend 5 months !!!!!!!! on each other for losing the election. Errrr No. Why would they do that other than in a lefties day dreams?

The UK's constitutional settlement is more complicated than just which party the Prime Minister comes from.

Parliament is important too. The legislature and the execute are two completely different branches of the state. Parliament is there to scrutinise the government.

The point about minority governments is that the government can't get things through parliament unless it gets the support of other parties, and even the tiniest backbench rebellions will be enough to defeat it on any given vote.

You can get that the 318 Tory MPs are a diverse bunch - many Brexiteers, but many Remainers too - many of them are going to be prepared to rebel on key votes.

ThinkingOutLoud_2

masterwilde wrote: »

Your banking on the minority though. That is no way guaranteed.

Scottish Tory leader, remain tories, dup, and cabinet ministers that are not happy at all.

Tories expected 65% of the vote, they got 42% they are not smiling.

They are not.

But did Diane tell you 65%?

Even at the height of the polls the Tories were only getting 49% or did I miss something?