the snap general election thread

Arklight

CKhalvashi wrote: »

I'm taking a bet that the younger generation ('young' being anyone younger than I am these days) are going to be out a lot more than before, leading to a stronger Labour turnout than planned from the editing of figures (they're all very close before adjustments).

A lot of people I know (including myself) voted Conservative in 2015 and won't be voting Conservative this time, ranging anywhere from early 20s to an 85 year old man I was at the hospital with today.

I will be voting for whoever is most likely to remove my MP from his seat, which will be either Lib Dem or Labour at the moment. Labour are currently ahead in this constituency, however it's too early to call.

My experience of door knocking is that for the first time ever the Tories 'might' suffer from low turnout in their own supporters. Predominantly elderly people.

There isn't much chance of these people voting Labour but they are visibly, and vocally, fed up with Theresa May's government. Those who are angry about their Brexit will probably return to UKIP.

The others tend to have completely missed the social media Corbyn tidal wave, older people don't use it, but they have been very engaged over the tv debates. Worryingly for May what they are saying is they still don't think they'd vote for him, but after having seen him on TV (rather than reading Murdoch's bile), they now think he's a decent man who speaks well, and cares about the UK.

As they don't think this about Theresa May, I'm hoping that they'll not bother turning out on the 9th, which is when I'm telling them all the election is. As there don't appear to be any Tory activists anywhere hopefully this will pay off I AM JOKING.

BobQ

michaels wrote: »

Corbyn making political capital out of the attacks this evening - I guess it is nice for the families of the 7 dead and 40+ injured to know that politicians are attempting to making gain from their suffering before the bodies are even cold.

What was May doing today?

BobQ

michaels wrote: »

Sure. Would have been fine tomorrow. Leading on it today is opportunistic which just feels inappropriate to me. Why not campaign on NHS this evening and policing tomorrow rather than trying to make use of the sad event.

May was talking today about longer sentences, reforming the internet and changing the culture of ethnic communities. That is not opportunist ?

bobbymotors

Arklight wrote: »

My experience of door knocking is that for the first time ever the Tories 'might' suffer from low turnout in their own supporters. Predominantly elderly people.

There isn't much chance of these people voting Labour but they are visibly, and vocally, fed up with Theresa May's government. Those who are angry about their Brexit will probably return to UKIP.

The others tend to have completely missed the social media Corbyn tidal wave, older people don't use it, but they have been very engaged over the tv debates. Worryingly for May what they are saying is they still don't think they'd vote for him, but after having seen him on TV (rather than reading Murdoch's bile), they now think he's a decent man who speaks well, and cares about the UK.

As they don't think this about Theresa May, I'm hoping that they'll not bother turning out on the 9th, which is when I'm telling them all the election is. As there don't appear to be any Tory activists anywhere hopefully this will pay off I AM JOKING.

no chance bud.

conservative majority 70 or so.

when it comes to putting the X on the ballot paper, JC is unelectable.

But don't worry, you'll be able to blame the media as usual on friday morning

Filo25

BobQ wrote: »

May was talking today about longer sentences, reforming the internet and changing the culture of ethnic communities. That is not opportunist ?

Agree on this one.

Arklight

bobbymotors wrote: »

no chance bud.

conservative majority 70 or so.

when it comes to putting the X on the ballot paper, JC is unelectable.

But don't worry, you'll be able to blame the media as usual on friday morning

Not to be pedantic, but saying that a politician who is up for election is unelectable is a non sequitur.

He's electable by virtue of being in an election.

What you mean is that you aren't very keen on him and won't vote for him and all your friends think the same. Which isn't quite the same thing.

ThinkingOutLoud_2

Arklight wrote: »

Not to be pedantic, but saying that a politician who is up for election is unelectable is a non sequitur.

He's electable by virtue of being in an election.

What you mean is that you aren't very keen on him and won't vote for him and all your friends think the same. Which isn't quite the same thing.

He may mean he is not in JC's constituency and so he cannot elect him.

Of course, you both may mean that JC may or may not see his party get more MP's elected and so become PM whether or not he is elected.

CKhalvashi

bobbymotors wrote: »

no chance bud.

conservative majority 70 or so.

when it comes to putting the X on the ballot paper, JC is unelectable.

But don't worry, you'll be able to blame the media as usual on friday morning

Actually, what Arklight has seen is what I've seen too.

If the Conservatives suffer from low turnout, as it's likely they will, Corbyn will be the Prime Minister this month.

So, how do you get the majority of '70 or so'? Which seats will they be? How many losses will they take in this election?

You don't know, because you've taken a wild stab and haven't looked at the numbers, just what you'd like to happen. I've been able to back up everything I've said using historic numbers and current polling figures.

Noone is denying that the Conservatives will be the largest party, however I doubt they'll have a majority and hope (as well as honestly think) that they'll be in opposition.

Arklight wrote: »

Not to be pedantic, but saying that a politician who is up for election is unelectable is a non sequitur.

He's electable by virtue of being in an election.

What you mean is that you aren't very keen on him and won't vote for him and all your friends think the same. Which isn't quite the same thing.

He's been an elected MP since 1983. I'd say that makes him more than electable.

I wasn't keen on him, but as he's been in the press more, especially on this election, I'm sure we have a lot more in common.

kinger101

BobQ wrote: »

May was talking today about longer sentences, reforming the internet and changing the culture of ethnic communities. That is not opportunist ?

I hate long sentences. You get your reading glasses out, put them on, have a read through all the words and punctuation, and then by the time you've finally worked your way to the end of whatever it is the person was trying to communicate, you completely forget what it is you are reading or why, and start getting really really annoyed with both yourself and the writer and possibly the copy editor for not spotting the run-on sentence in the first place. Keep it short and sweet I say.

steampowered

CKhalvashi wrote: »

If the Conservatives suffer from low turnout, as it's likely they will, Corbyn will be the Prime Minister this month.

Out of interest, why do you think it is likely Tory voters won't turn out?

I would have thought Tory voters are very likely to turn-out. They have solid support among the older generations who turn-out (despite tanking among the young and among working age people).