Electric cars

DrEskimo

NBLondon wrote: »

I think you're probably right Doc... but it seems many people don't calculate TCO. Some just do the simple sum of (EV price - ICE price)/fuel savings = no. of years to break even and don't factor in maintenance. Others just do the "how much per year in payments" plus "how much per year in fuel" /12 and can they afford that. I have never really bothered about depreciation or re-sale value because I don't have a planned timescale for changing cars - it's always been a mix of "Do I want something different?" when I was young and single or "Have my needs or circumstances changed?" as I've got older.

Yea very good point, well made.

There's been a lot of moaning about the apparent expense of BEV on PCP 'deals', and as you say, rather than look at whole cost of ownership, it seems to come down purely to the monthly figure...God knows I've spent too much of my free time trying to point out that monthly cost is not the sole indicator of total cost....

Bit of a tangent, but I've noticed the high cost for a lot of new BEV's on PCP is down to rather pessimistic GFV. I thought it was initially due to manufacturers being cautious (or even trying to reduce the demand as supply is still low), but reading on the changes to how VAT is being charged on PCP, I suspect it's something that's being seen across all PCP cars, BEV and ICE alike:

"The revised treatment does not apply if the final payments are set at a level which is demonstrably below market value, so revised payment profiles could preserve the status quo."

https://www.am-online.com/news/finance/2019/03/01/hmrc-s-pcp-car-finance-vat-changes-could-lead-to-pch-dominance

This could easily see a dramatic move towards more PCH than PCP, which have traditionally had lower monthly costs anyway.

In any case, I'm with you on the depreciation front. I rarely worry too much. There's not much I can do about the price I get in X-years time, so the only way I can mitigate the impact of depreciation is by buying the car at the lowest possible price...! I probably spend far too much time researching and scouring the used market for that 'bargain', but I do enjoy it...!

AdrianC

DrEskimo wrote: »

There's been a lot of moaning about the apparent expense of BEV on PCP 'deals', and as you say, rather than look at whole cost of ownership, it seems to come down purely to the monthly figure...God knows I've spent too much of my free time trying to point out that monthly cost is not the sole indicator of total cost....

Given that most headline PCP prices are relatively low mileage, fuel cost is not that major a factor.
6k miles/yr at 50mpg at £1.30/litre is <£60/month.
At that mileage, there may well just be a single, fairly minimal, service in the three year finance period.

Bit of a tangent, but I've noticed the high cost for a lot of new BEV's on PCP is down to rather pessimistic GFV.

Which is, of course, based on the estimated depreciation over the term of the finance.
Given how much the BEV market is predicted to move on in the next year or three, the current crop may be relatively undesirable at the end of term.

DrEskimo

AdrianC wrote: »

Given that most headline PCP prices are relatively low mileage, fuel cost is not that major a factor.
6k miles/yr at 50mpg at £1.30/litre is <£60/month.
At that mileage, there may well just be a single, fairly minimal, service in the three year finance period.

I wasn't very clear, I didn't mean because it ignored other factors, I mean that a monthly cost on a finance product is not an indicator of total cost with respect to depreciation/interest. A monthly amount can be manipulated by upfront payment (i.e. amount borrowed), APR, GFV if it's a PCP finance, term, etc. etc. A personal loan over a shorter term may have higher monthly cost than a PCP on a longer term, but it will be substantially cheaper, as it will charge much lower interest.

AdrianC wrote: »

Which is, of course, based on the estimated depreciation over the term of the finance.
Given how much the BEV market is predicted to move on in the next year or three, the current crop may be relatively undesirable at the end of term.

If you read the linked article it stipulates that it likely won't be just the estimated depreciation. In order to differentiate a PCP from PCH for VAT purposes, the PCP has to offer a more cost effective final payment, which is 'demonstrably below market value'.

Of course whether manufacturers go with revised PCP deals with lower GFV, or take the hit on additional VAT at resale I guess is their choice. It would take a fair bit of modelling to work out which is the better business approach.

I suspect what is probably more likely is that deposit contributions and discounts will be offered to off-set the decreased GFV, so they can continue to offer competitive 'monthly' PCP deals whilst still avoiding the additional VAT charges on resale.

zeupater

DrEskimo wrote: »

I think you may be reading into this a bit too much....

It's pretty clear from numerous articles that Tesla don't publish regional sales of their individual models. This is true across all country sales.

As such, my guess is that SMMT merely have 3 numbers and a total, with no indication of which model is which. Differentiating between Model S and X (particularly over time) would but near impossible, but when one number sticks out as much as the Model 3 number for August (and probably for the next few months), it's pretty obvious to deduce which model it is!

Hi

:huh: ... As previously mentioned, if a car is registered in the UK the data comes from the DVLA as a dataset. This dataset contains up to ~50 data fields which can be used for onward analysis, including make, model, variant, colour etc, so it's nothing to do with what information is disclosed by the manufacturer ....

Vehicle build in the UK is different as the destination isn't restricted to the UK. In this case, the data is provided by the manufacturer directly to the body which they are members of (the SMMT!) to be collated & onward analysed ....

Vehicles not manufactured in the UK but sold/registered in the UK are identified from the DVLA data & vehicles manufactured by SMMT members in the UK for export are identified through voluntary data submission ...

With Tesla not manufacturing in the UK and the analysis in discussion being UK registrations as opposed to Tesla global sales & deliveries by region/country, it's pretty safe to conclude that the data behind the published registrations summary will be sourced from the DVLA and therefore all of the necessary data will be available, exactly as it would be for every other registration ... Seeing that Tesla have absolutely no say or sway in the way the UK registrations analysis works, the reason for the SMMT including their registration as 'other' as opposed to correctly apportioning by manufacturer should have no connection to anything that Tesla are either willing, unwilling or even unable to publish!

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

Interesting piece from Gali at Hyperchange.

He's speculating that the TMY might arrive sooner than expected as Tesla may be sandbagging on dates. To be blunt, the TM3 was probably one of the most important and successful launches, but all the news reported was negatives based on comparisons against Elon's most optimistic targets. On here the FUD'meister General did the exact same for a year+. So I wouldn't blame Tesla for playing things down a bit, but it is of course all hypothetical at this stage.

Model Y Coming Sooner Than We Think?

[Deleted User]

Honda e looks very nice. Deliveries starting next summer.

Martyn1981

Nice looking SUV from Byton.

Byton Brings The Production-Ready Byton M-Byte Out To Play In Frankfurt

Martyn1981

TM3 is second best selling car in Netherlands in August, and third best selling car for 2019. Looking at the comments, it could become top selling car for 2019.

Any thoughts why the Zoe is so low down, I thought it was a pretty decent package, and outsold most (BEV) competition elsewhere?

Tesla Model 3 = #2 In Overall Dutch Auto Market In August

DrEskimo

The new Zoe ZE50 is going on sale very soon.

Imagine most people would be waiting for that, then buying a ZE40 right now. Particularly if it's like the UK where the discounts are at their lowest since it was released in 2017.

NigeWick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Any thoughts why the Zoe is so low down, I thought it was a pretty decent package, and outsold most (BEV) competition elsewhere?

It's French...