Electric cars

Kentish_Dave

Martyn1981 wrote: »

The value of a company will impact on the amount of money they can borrow, and the rate at which they can borrow it.

That’s not really how it works in the corporate world, a low share price can be driven by a very solid company with low-ish dividends, or a very profitable company that’s viewed as very risky too, and the lending market will not treat those the same.

My day job is in investment banking (hence the ability to buy a new Tesla...) and I was making the point that in Tesla’s case they have not been struggling to raise debt.

Whether they will survive is another matter, I think that there’s a good chance that they will not.

Martyn1981

Kentish_Dave wrote: »

That’s not really how it works in the corporate world, a low share price can be driven by a very solid company with low-ish dividends, or a very profitable company that’s viewed as very risky too, and the lending market will not treat those the same.

My day job is in investment banking (hence the ability to buy a new Tesla...) and I was making the point that in Tesla’s case they have not been struggling to raise debt.

Whether they will survive is another matter, I think that there’s a good chance that they will not.

This link spells out the link between share price and expansion:

How does a decline in share prices affect companies?

I do agree that Tesla has not had any problems raising capital, but will that continue if the share price stays low, and even if they can raise funds, will it be comparable, or will they raise less, and pay higher rates?


As to failing, I don't know. Some of the talk has gotten a bit extreme with claims of potential share values as low as $10, but when you watch the interviews, that's when the analysts are pushed hard for an absolute worst scenario, if the company has little value but some assets. The same analysts seem to suggest a share price floor of $150(ish) dollars, at which point buyers might want to takeover the company, Amazon gets mentioned simply as an example.

I can see Tesla being pushed down hard by the constant FUD, leading to potential buyers walking away in fear of being left with an expensive vehicle and low resale values / lack of support & service, but I think that hurdle could be overcome this year, possibly after Q2 or Q3 if sales are good, demand remains high, and the China factory comes on-line.

We know Tesla is one of, if not the front runner in BEV's, and we know BEV's are certain to win out against ICEV's in the medium term, so it's just a matter of Tesla outlasting the FUD.

BTW, why do you think they won't survive? Is your position entirely rational, or is it impacted at all by all the negative press and the severe decline in the share price this year? Is it even that you think the negative pressure might break them?

I'm not trying to trick you, I'm genuinely interested to know if you think the company is unsound, or will suffer from the claims that it is fundamentally unsound .... IYSWIM.

Martyn1981

TM3 LR capable of 450 miles when a 20 min fast recharge is added. Is that the end of range anxiety for potential BEV buyers? [I'm assuming many models, from many companies will achieve similar results in the next few/five years.]

Tesla Model 3 On SuperCharger V3 — Adds 50% Range In Under 12 Minutes! (Charts!)

AdrianC

Yes, very impressive. If your route happens to include a Supercharger v3 site.

As of a month ago, there were two "partly converted" in California, and work starting on one in Texas... And that was it.
https://electrek.co/2019/05/21/tesla-supercharger-v3-rollout-expand/

So what's the timescale for widespread availability?

Electrek wrote:

Electrek’s Take
Tesla’s Supercharger V3 is impressive, but it means nothing if it’s not widely available.

The launch in March was likely a little early. We thought it was weird that Model S and Model X weren’t included at the time and it was also weird that the rollout appeared to be extremely slow or even nonexistent a few months later.

Situation normal, then. Get very excited over the press release, don't enquire too closely about the reality.

Herzlos

Kind of like how petrol was only convenient initially if you drove past a petrol station?

Thankfully, infrastructure advances. Even without a v3 charger you'd struggle to find a route that didn't work.

AdrianC

Herzlos wrote: »

Kind of like how petrol was only convenient initially if you drove past a petrol station?

Not really, because petrol was initially sold in sealed cans from chemists, garages, farriers - back in the days when anything more than a short local run was the exception.

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

Not really, because petrol was initially sold in sealed cans from chemists, garages, farriers - back in the days when anything more than a short local run was the exception.

Hi

Don't worry too much, there'll likely be a 'back to the future' scenario being planned for dispensing in all of those outlets to keep the ICE 'diehards' moaning about the prices they're having to pay ....

.... probably do wonders as a technology weaning strategy ....

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Yes, very impressive. If your route happens to include a Supercharger v3 site.

Deny till you die!

Ade, you're barely even 'phoning it in' now. Come on, buck up your anti-EV/Tesla game, or move on, it's getting kinda depressing watching this sad and pathetic decline.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Not really, because petrol was initially sold in sealed cans from chemists, garages, farriers - back in the days when anything more than a short local run was the exception.

Shot yourself in the footsie their mate - you seem to be confirming that re-fueling options for ICE vehicles grew over time as the number of vehicles and their range grew.

Pretty sure arguing with, even potentially against, yourself is a sign of decline.

AdrianC

Odd, Martyn, that you should be disagreeing with Electrek... I thought they were one of your preferred sources? Or just when they deify St Elon, rather than questioning him?

As for fuel availability - yes, sure, it widened as the technology matured - there was never a backward step... If you're arguing that EVs are a suitable replacement for ICEVs, then shouldn't they be just as easily usable?