Electric cars

NigeWick

Stageshoot wrote: »

settled at 4.6 miles per kwh

Thats 75% motorway driving and 25% slow town driving

Are you doing 70mph on the motorways?

Martyn1981

Article on the TM3's dominance of the small & midsize luxury market in America where it has around 28% of the sales. You'll be aware that the big Tesla's have the large luxury sector sown up too.

Now, putting aside that it's Tesla, and hopefully avoiding Mr FUD's attempts to spin some silly negatives, does this show that BEV's are now already potentially dominant?

In markets where their price is comparable, and production numbers are high enough, BEV's are dominating the sector. So are BEV's 'there already' when it comes to demand, and it's 'simply' a matter of supply not being large enough?

To add to this argument, whilst the TM3 isn't the top selling car in the US, though it has shot up the charts, and may not rise any higher now that sales are expanding outside the country, it has consistently topped the charts in the US as top selling car by revenue (less sales than the top boys, but at a much higher ASP). So again, there seems to be the demand for BEV's already, just need higher production numbers, and a lower entry level like the Leaf, Zoe, Kona, TM$25k etc etc.

Tesla Model 3 Completely Crushing US Luxury Car Competition — 10 CleanTechnica Charts

Martyn1981

Potentially 10x the energy density of Li-ion batts, but ...... a few issues remain. Still an interesting article on yet another potential route to the future of BEV's.

Honda, NASA, & Caltech Claim Fluoride Battery Breakthrough

Lithium is one element that is good for making batteries, but it is not the only one. Flouride — the most electro-negative element in the periodic table — is also quite suitable for the task. In fact, fluoride batteries are capable of being 10 times more energy dense than lithium batteries. But until now, they needed to be heated to 150° Celsius (300° F for those living in former British colonies) in order to function.

Still, the prospects are tantalizing and Honda, NASA, and Caltech are not amateurs fooling around with Bunsen burners and beakers in a garage late at night. We need the next step in battery development to happen as soon as possible to move the clean energy revolution forward, but Nature does not give up her secrets on demand. Patience, grasshopper.

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Article on the TM3's dominance of the small & midsize luxury market in America where it has around 28% of the sales.

Umm, hold on, ol' sausage... Let's not forget that is small-medium luxury cars. Not SUVs.

Take the BMW figure given - 2+3+4+5-series = 10,800 cars against 18,000 estimated for Tesla.
Well, lovely (lovely-ish. 18,000 in November is <4,100 cars/week), but... The US market continues to move heavily away from cars to SUVs.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2018/09/04/august-us-auto-sales/1188847002/

USA_Today wrote:

Americans continued to flock to crossovers, SUVs and pickup trucks in August, but they're abandoning passenger cars in droves.
...
Passenger cars dropped below 30 percent of the market in August for the first month ever, according to Cox Automotive. A few years ago, they made up half of the industry.
They are are flailing as shoppers choose roomier rides amid relatively low gasoline prices.
...
Ford has already announced plans to discontinue most of its passenger cars, including the Fiesta, Fusion, Focus and Taurus. Fiat Chrysler already axed most of its cars.
Who's next?

So let's add X2 + X3 + X4 + X5 = 2,280 + 4,450 + 480 + 5,190 on top of that - so the BMW total is actually 23,200 cars. Now repeat that for all the other brands...

Merc? 12,790 C/CLA/CLS/E - now add 2,400 GLA, 6,200 GLC, 4,000 GLS to that, and you have a total of 25,400 cars.

Look further down that page, at the top 20 cars for the year. The Model 3 is 11th, 114k sales for Jan-Nov (<2,400 average per week). But, again, no SUVs in that... And remember that BMW's entries in the segment are split across 8 models - just one of which, the X3, shifted 53,000 - while Merc's are split across 7 - just one of which, the GLC, shifted 63,000. I can't be arsed to collate 88 monthly BMW figures and 77 monthly Merc, but if the split is the same for November as the whole year, then that suggests BMW around 275k and Merc around 258k, compared to Tesla's estimated 118k for their one model across the entire segment.

All figures, as ever, from https://www.carsalesbase.com

And, before you ask, Ford shifted around 822,000 F-series, ~17,250/week/average, around 7.2x the annually-averaged Model 3 rate.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Umm, hold on, ol' sausage... Let's not forget that is small-medium luxury cars. Not SUVs.

Correct, these are cars, not SUV's, didn't you know that? Was it the word 'car' in the title and chart headings that confused you? The segments that they are in, they are dominating.

That's great news isn't it. Hopefully we'll have BEV SUV's and pick ups soon too, domintaing their segments.

Apologies if this depresses you. But look on the bright side, imagine how upset you would be if you were anti-EV!

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Correct, these are cars, not SUV's, didn't you know that? Was it the word 'car' in the title and chart headings that confused you? The segments that they are in, they are dominating.

No, I understand completely. If lauding the headlines relies on cherry-picking and denial of where consumer demand is, then that's cool. But let's at least be honest, eh? People spending that kind of wedge on a premium vehicle of that kind of size are overwhelmingly buying softroaders, not saloons or hatches. ESPECIALLY in the US.



So the question has to be when the Model Y's due?
We know the answer... It's gone onto the backburner until after the Model 3 production's sorted. It's not like Tesla don't know damn well which way the bulk of the market went in the nearly three years since the 3 was first launched.

Herzlos

AdrianC wrote: »

People spending that kind of wedge on a premium vehicle of that kind of size are overwhelmingly buying softroaders, not saloons or hatches. ESPECIALLY in the US.

Well, 2/3rds of them. And presumably once the BEV SUVs start ramping up they'll start dominating those segments too.


(I'll be snapping up a BEV crossover when I can afford it).

AdrianC

Herzlos wrote: »

Well, 2/3rds of them.

2:1 is pretty damn overwhelming, I'd say.

And crowing about a quarter of the third of the market (forgetting to mention it is only a third) is a tad disingenuous.

And presumably once the BEV SUVs start ramping up they'll start dominating those segments too.

Perhaps.

Those who buy softroaders are, kinda by definition, less interested in the environment and sustainability.

(I'll be snapping up a BEV crossover when I can afford it).

...and when they're available.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

No, I understand completely. If lauding the headlines relies on cherry-picking and denial of where consumer demand is, then that's cool. But let's at least be honest, eh? People spending that kind of wedge on a premium vehicle of that kind of size are overwhelmingly buying softroaders, not saloons or hatches. ESPECIALLY in the US.



So the question has to be when the Model Y's due?
We know the answer... It's gone onto the backburner until after the Model 3 production's sorted. It's not like Tesla don't know damn well which way the bulk of the market went in the nearly three years since the 3 was first launched.

Articles about cars not SUV's are about cars not SUV's! :rotfl:

Man, that's really poor quality trolling, or shows just how desperate you now need to get.

1/10 must try harder.

Martyn1981

An extract from this week's Carbon Commentary newsletter:

7, Volkswagen electric cars. Volkswagen made its strongest commitment yet to the electrification of cars saying it ‘accepts social responsibility for the climate’. The company says its last CO2-producing car will be sold in 2040 and scrapped around 2050. The final model of a VW non-electric car will go on sale in 2033, based on the last petrol/diesel platform, to be launched in 2025. The rate of decline in sales of ICE cars expected by VW is likely to mean that oil consumption by cars falls from about 2024 or 2025. If the company meets its targets, its sales of conventional cars will fall by over 0.5m a year for the next 20 years, equal to about 5% of its current production.

Interesting to see the timetable that the last petrol/diesel platform will be launched in 2025.