Electric cars

Gloomendoom

NigeWick wrote: »

In four or five years battery electric vehicles will be cheaper than petrol/diesel as the cost of batteries comes down. As Martyn said, the US academic Tony Seba shows how costs are coming down and that the take up of electric vehicles will be exponential and not linear.

Pretty much the reverse of what happened a 100 years ago resulting in electric cars becoming virtually extinct by 1920.

Stoke

Just my two-penneth here. I'm not an expert in electric cars whatsoever, but like most car enthusiasts, I've been interested in them for a while.

I still believe that instead of focusing on all-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids offer the best compromise going forward. An excellent example of a plug-in hybrid, is the new (second generation) Chevrolet Volt, which is unavailable in Britain as Chevrolet do not sell in Britain anymore.

It features Chevrolet's newly revised battery system and is significantly more efficient than the original Volt (which was available in Britain).

In electric mode, it has a range of 53 miles. Now 53 miles may not sound much compared to the dedicated electric models, but 53 miles is easily enough to get me (and probably a significant majority of the country) to work and home everyday with a trip to the supermarket or chippy thrown in for good measure.

Once the battery is drained, the car seamlessly switches to the petrol motor, a 1.5 litre N/A engine achieving on average 43MPG but getting up to 52MPG on the motorway (highway in America). This engine is significantly less responsive than the electric one (according to Volt owners) but with a full tank has a range of a massive 460 miles. No getting stuck and waiting for the AA in a Volt.

The Volt is a massive hit in America and is considered by most car journalists, the best electric car you can by..... period. Plus with America giving various discounts on electric cars, people have been able to buy them, from new for as little as $25,000!!!! $25k for a brand new plug-in hybrid. That's crazy cheap when you consider the potential money you'll be saving driving to work everyday in electric mode.

AND WE CAN'T BLOODY BUY IT!!!!! It's the freaking VW Lupo 3L all over again.

Crazy, but yup, my feelings on electric cars.

Seems some of those dirty diesels on the verge of being banned are the same dirty diesels that can run on veggie oil at very low emissions. Hmm.

aardvaak

Far too expensive at present

welfayre

NigeWick wrote: »

In four or five years battery electric vehicles will be cheaper than petrol/diesel as the cost of batteries comes down. As Martyn said, the US academic Tony Seba shows how costs are coming down and that the take up of electric vehicles will be exponential and not linear.

If the take up of electric vehicles is exponential then the depletion of rare earth minerals needed for the motors will be depleted exponentially too. Then the prices will skyrocket and we'll just need to cycle everywhere.

almillar

To be honest with my wife's driving the range is quite accurate. Her trip report is always at 99/100 and she often gains miles on short journeys! She does all her town driving in eco.

Impressive. I did do 100 miles at least once, just out of principle, but it was no fun. Throw in some motorway driving and she won't manage it. I estimate my winter range to be about two thirds of my summer range. I did Eco plenty for 18 months, but it's summer, my car is going back in November, so I've switched it off.

Does anybody know exactly what is done at an annual service? This just got me thinking about it and I can't think of anything that could be done apart from a "check" over.

Yep, you'll get one of those sheets with the umpteen checks they do on an ICE car, with certain exceptions. There will be no engine oil etc, but they'll still charge you to refill your screenwash! Brake lines, air con, power steering, 12v battery, pollen filter change, tyres, brakes all get done.

NEDC claimed range is 155 miles. Utter rubbish unless tootling round town at 30mph or below in warm weather.

Yep, even the manufacturers stay away from NEDC figures because they'll just get angry people coming back. If a salesman tells you you'll get it, walk away. He'll probably try to sell you it with a full tank and you'll have a boot full of petrol.

Far too expensive at present

Insightful stuff there. £200 per month for a Kia Soul EV or Nissan Leaf compared to another similar car, including running costs. Or are you comparing brand new cars to 10 year old ones?

vman

Gloomendoom wrote: »

Ultimately, after the honeymoon period is over, there are unlikely to be any cost savings. The revenue lost from petrol and diesel sales will have to be recouped. Expect electricity used to charge vehicles to be hit with full VAT and fuel duty in the same way that liquid fuel currently is.

Probably right, the lost revenues need to be reclaimed somewhere but they are just as likely to put a generic charge onto utility bills (and probably masquerading as some green tax).

Then again, I would expect like for like electric cars to ultimately be cheaper than electric cars as there are so little in them. The single biggest cost item by far is the battery of course. I suspect the next big leap in battery tech will be price centric rather than range. Economy of scale will kick in sooner or later; batteries that cost 5K now will be half that in price in a few years. There are already a few aftermarket suppliers entering the scene. That will help the resale value as well. It's not uncommon for a leaf sold new with a range of 100 miles (acceptable to many drivers) to have something approaching a near useless range 60 miles after 3 years due to battery deterioration. 2K for a new battery isn’t a bad investment if it brings that 3 year old leaf picked up for 6K a range of 100 miles (or perhaps 150-200 Miles - a newer aftermarket fit should use current tech so increased range), especially as you know there is little else expensive on the car to go wrong. My own personal reason for buying an EV has been driven by a similar thought process. I have traditionally bought used executive type diesels for between 7-10K. On my last car but one, I spent the best part of 2K fixing recurring turbo issues, and then I had to bin it due to a catastrophic gear box failure. I replaced with another similar diesel, and within 10 months I had to scrap that due a gearbox failure again (and during a recent service they mentioned that I was probably about to start experience turbo issues as well). I think the car before that had about 1.5K spent on it due to clutch failure. So, all my recent expensive outlays have been exclusively on components that are unique to ICE cars only. On top of spending £360 year for servicing and £300/month in fuel, I just got fed up with it. The fuel and road tax savings alone cover the repayments on my leaf. It's basically free new car as far as I am concerned, or fixed priced motoring from another perspective.

Don’t get me wrong EVs are far from perfect, and IMO for reasons not mentioned here so far ie you can't carry bikes on the back any distance, no roof boxes, and if you go much above 70mph range plummets – a pill tough to swallow for most uk drivers.

Still, I pick up my new leaf today and I'm off to Devon in it on Saturday, so there may well be an angry, ranting post on Saturday evening about how horrendous they are :-)

Stoke

vman wrote: »

Probably right, the lost revenues need to be reclaimed somewhere but they are just as likely to put a generic charge onto utility bills (and probably masquerading as some green tax).

Then again, I would expect like for like electric cars to ultimately be cheaper than electric cars as there are so little in them. The single biggest cost item by far is the battery of course. I suspect the next big leap in battery tech will be price centric rather than range. Economy of scale will kick in sooner or later; batteries that cost 5K now will be half that in price in a few years. There are already a few aftermarket suppliers entering the scene. That will help the resale value as well. It's not uncommon for a leaf sold new with a range of 100 miles (acceptable to many drivers) to have something approaching a near useless range 60 miles after 3 years due to battery deterioration. 2K for a new battery isn’t a bad investment if it brings that 3 year old leaf picked up for 6K a range of 100 miles (or perhaps 150-200 Miles - a newer aftermarket fit should use current tech so increased range), especially as you know there is little else expensive on the car to go wrong. My own personal reason for buying an EV has been driven by a similar thought process. I have traditionally bought used executive type diesels for between 7-10K. On my last car but one, I spent the best part of 2K fixing recurring turbo issues, and then I had to bin it due to a catastrophic gear box failure. I replaced with another similar diesel, and within 10 months I had to scrap that due a gearbox failure again (and during a recent service they mentioned that I was probably about to start experience turbo issues as well). I think the car before that had about 1.5K spent on it due to clutch failure. So, all my recent expensive outlays have been exclusively on components that are unique to ICE cars only. On top of spending £360 year for servicing and £300/month in fuel, I just got fed up with it. The fuel and road tax savings alone cover the repayments on my leaf. It's basically free new car as far as I am concerned, or fixed priced motoring from another perspective.

Don’t get me wrong EVs are far from perfect, and IMO for reasons not mentioned here so far ie you can't carry bikes on the back any distance, no roof boxes, and if you go much above 70mph range plummets – a pill tough to swallow for most uk drivers.

Still, I pick up my new leaf today and I'm off to Devon in it on Saturday, so there may well be an angry, ranting post on Saturday evening about how horrendous they are :-)

I think the concerns with batteries are legitimate though. Some rather rare and precious metals go into them. What's more, once those batteries have deteriorated beyond a certain point, you're left with a very very expensive paperweight (unless you're willing to spend about 5 grand currently), and a very expensive useless battery that needs disposing off.

Now, I've seen that some companies recycle the batteries by using them in renewable products such as wind turbines, but being realistic, that isn't a long term solution going forward. Lithium batteries are expensive to make, expensive to maintain and expensive to dispose off.

Neither solution is perfect, but there's a reason the internal combustion engine has been a winner for so long. The benefits of an EV will soon be smashed when the government introduce the inevitable 'EV Tax'. If there's one thing you can be sure, those crafty !!!!!!s in HM Gov are working out the easiest way to slap a nice hefty tax on anyone benefiting from electric cars.

By the way: £360 a year for servicing? Your mechanic must use tools made of gold.

Gloomendoom

vman wrote: »

Then again, I would expect like for like electric cars to ultimately be cheaper than electric cars as there are so little in them.

Once you move away from basic low voltage DC milk-float technology, electric vehicles get very complex and actually have quite a bit in them.

Martyn1981

vman wrote: »

I suspect the next big leap in battery tech will be price centric rather than range. Economy of scale will kick in sooner or later;

BNEF's projections are for batts to fall from around $250/kWh today to $73/kWh in 2030.

vman wrote: »

It's not uncommon for a leaf sold new with a range of 100 miles (acceptable to many drivers) to have something approaching a near useless range 60 miles after 3 years due to battery deterioration.

Do you have a link to that, as it sounds rather excessive. I know that a study of Tesla's found that on average they still had 94% capacity after 700 full cycles (around 150,000+ miles).

Martyn1981

Stoke wrote: »

I think the concerns with batteries are legitimate though. Some rather rare and precious metals go into them. What's more, once those batteries have deteriorated beyond a certain point, you're left with a very very expensive paperweight (unless you're willing to spend about 5 grand currently), and a very expensive useless battery that needs disposing off.

I don't think lithium is rare nor precious, that's why the Gigafactory has been built next to the salt flats to make use of the lithium there. Though cobalt is often mined using illegal practices such as child labour.

The batts can be recycled.

Stoke wrote: »

Now, I've seen that some companies recycle the batteries by using them in renewable products such as wind turbines, but being realistic, that isn't a long term solution going forward. Lithium batteries are expensive to make, expensive to maintain and expensive to dispose off.

Are you thinking of stationary storage alongside renewable generation, rather than "in" wind turbines? Nissan for example have teamed up with Eaton to offer ex car batts for use in domestic battery storage, since reduced capacity is not an issue, you just install more to make up the difference, as efficiency still remains the same, it's just that the battery is 'smaller' than it once was in capacity terms.

I've also seen some DIY domestic battery builds using the battery packs from written off Leaf's - very sexy (if you're odd like me).

But the batts can be recycled if they have no further use.