Electric cars

Car_54

Let's assume that we can expect the average lifetime of a car to double, say from 10 to 20 years. So the average depreciation will fall from 10% to 5% p.a.

However, it doesn't work like that. As we all know, the bulk (c. 60%) of the depreciation currently takes place in years 1 to 3. That is driven largely by consumer choice - the desire for something newer/bigger/better/more impressive - rather than any objective factors. I can't see that changing!

Herzlos

A lot of it is the idea that a 3 year old car is old, and is probably a remnant from 3 year warranties being standard. If cars last twice as long the age and thus depreciation curves may soften a bit.

There's always going to be a big drop from new to nearly new.

If the running gear is good enough we might even see reconditioned cars.
Equally we may see a 10 year old automated ev as completely obsolete due to the rate of advance if technology.

NigeWick

zeupater wrote: »

Firstly, autonomy isn't exclusive to EVs

But, as electric vehicles become cheaper to buy as well as keep up, ICE vehicles will die out, apart from on young Master Clarkson & Co's estates.

Martyn1981

Car_54 wrote: »

Let's assume that we can expect the average lifetime of a car to double, say from 10 to 20 years. So the average depreciation will fall from 10% to 5% p.a.

However, it doesn't work like that. As we all know, the bulk (c. 60%) of the depreciation currently takes place in years 1 to 3. That is driven largely by consumer choice - the desire for something newer/bigger/better/more impressive - rather than any objective factors. I can't see that changing!

In the Tony Seba argument, he suggests that a hard working autonomous car will stack up high mileage very fast. So an ICE may be worn out after a year or so, whereas an EV might be good for 3 times longer.

So his point is that the business asset / capital investment will do 3x as much 'work'.

Martyn1981

I was watching some EV news yesterday and saw mention of a new Leaf scheme in Japan so far (I think, I've forgotten already).

They will do a trade-in battery swap for the 24kWh pack for $2,800. That sounds excellent value to me, especially for a cheap bought, second car.

I think the batts are re-furbished, but from what I've heard that still means they are virtually as good as new.


Obviously I'm reading more into this, but let's say you got a worn out (batt) second hand Leaf for £5k, then spent £3k on a new(ish) batt. That's £8k for 10yrs of cheap motoring for second car, or perhaps kids going to college etc, with greatly reduced annual outgoings?

Martyn1981

Sorry for so many posts, but this article seemed interesting as it addresses some concerns mentioned on this thread about charging demand exceeding supply at any given time.

UPS plan to install ....... yep, batteries at charging locations.

UPS Pursuing Fully Electric Delivery Vehicle Fleet In London Thanks To Stationary Storage

“Our previous work on electric freight vehicles has shown that local grid infrastructure constraints are one of the main barriers to their large-scale uptake,” said Tanja Dalle-Muenchmeyer, programme manager electric freight at Cross River Partnership.

To work around this constraint, the team added onsite grid-scale batteries. The prototype installation utilizes new batteries but the team envisions used batteries from older electric delivery vehicles being given a second life as stationary storage at its charging depots to maximize the value it gets out of existing assets and reduce the need to purchase new batteries at every location, every time.

bugslet

I wonder what the life expectancy is on an electric truck? Currently I expect to get a good million k on an artic unit without any major replacements. Things go wrong about 750k mark, but I would hope not the engine or gearbox.

Whilst we do fairly low mileage, the big logistics firms triple shift their trucks, friend of mine drives for one that had a not yet 4 year old truck with 1.3k on it. I think the only time it got turned off was when it went for inspection.

AnotherJoe

bugslet wrote: »

I wonder what the life expectancy is on an electric truck? Currently I expect to get a good million k on an artic unit without any major replacements. Things go wrong about 750k mark, but I would hope not the engine or gearbox.

Whilst we do fairly low mileage, the big logistics firms triple shift their trucks, friend of mine drives for one that had a not yet 4 year old truck with 1.3k on it. I think the only time it got turned off was when it went for inspection.

Most likely similar, there's far less to go wrong and the main component that woudl age, battery, swaps would get cheaper over time.

I don't think electric trucks would fit a triple shift system though, unless lower running costs compensated, there must be a substantial diesel bill with three shifts. Initially it's more likely they will be restricted to niche areas, but it's a massive niche with room to expand out of as battery tech improves, basically any truck that does 500 miles or less a day.

Battery Tech is the only thing holding them back and it's inevitable they will replace diesel, it's just a matter of when.

Martyn1981

bugslet wrote: »

I wonder what the life expectancy is on an electric truck? Currently I expect to get a good million k on an artic unit without any major replacements. Things go wrong about 750k mark, but I would hope not the engine or gearbox.

Whilst we do fairly low mileage, the big logistics firms triple shift their trucks, friend of mine drives for one that had a not yet 4 year old truck with 1.3k on it. I think the only time it got turned off was when it went for inspection.

I don't know what the life expectancy on the Tesla's is, but they do have a 1,000,000 mile no breakdown guarantee. This is based on the fact that the motors are independent and the truck will 'drive like a diesel' on 2 motors (2 of the 4 down), so you still get to finish the job and arrange maintenance to your schedule.

Martyn1981

..... and hot of the presses ...

National Grid backs plan for earlier petrol and diesel ban

National Grid would support the government bringing forward its 2040 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales by a decade.

The company, which runs the UK’s national electricity network and wants to build superfast car charging points at motorway services, told MPs it could cope with the demands of an earlier surge in electric car numbers.