Electric cars

Stageshoot · 24 March 2018 at 12:45PM

I see so many posts about, "When its cheaper to own an EV compared to a ptrol/diesel)

But it already is, my Driving costs are over 50% less and I am a high mileage driver who changes car every year, if you stuck with one car longer then the savings jump even higher

2016
Volvo V40 6 Months Old Purchased from Major Car Supermarket
£15000 with 4k miles on clock
Ran for 13 months, added 40k miles

Costs
Insurance £385
12k Service £360
24k Service £360
36k Service £410
Fuel £4120

TOTAL RUNNING COSTS = £5635
CAR SOLD FOR £12000 Depreciation of £3000
TOTAL COSTS OVER 40000 Miles = 21p a mile

2017
BMW i3 REX Purchased as ExDemo from BMW
£21750 with 500 miles on clock
Ran for 13 months added 42k miles

Costs
Insurance £410
No Servicing Required
Fuel for Rex when run past battery limit £125
Public Recharging Costs £175
Home Recharging Costs £520

TOTAL RUNNING COSTS = £1230
CAR SOLD FOR £18000 Depreciation of £3750
TOTAL COSTS OVER 42000 Miles = 12p a mile

Martyn1981 · 24 March 2018 at 1:34PM

AnotherJoe wrote: »

If they were going to work, people would already use taxis instead of owning cars, but they dont. Autonomous cars just are cheaper taxis, theres nothing special about them.

Hi. It's not as simple as that. At the moment a taxi is very expensive to use, making a car cheaper to own.

The argument for autonomous taxi's is that they could be 90% cheaper. This results from around 3x as much mileage from each vehicle (EV v's ICE), much cheaper fuel costs, much cheaper servicing/maintenance costs, but the huge one is the labour cost, the taxi driver.

So at the moment I see no problem in using an ICE car for a short journey, rather than paying a taxi, say £10 each way. But change that cost to £1 each way, without any hassle or cost of parking, and that could change the decision massively, even if you now own an EV.

So, it's not a simple answer, and we'll have to see how it goes, but if it's cheaper and easier, and avoids a large capital expenditure, then it may be better to not own a car, hard to say. But I do believe that it'll destroy the argument/market for second, third etc cars in a household.

Edit -

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Real life stuff like this is why people wont replace their owned (or leased etc) cars with autonomous ones they are just too inconvenient and awkward.

Just to be clear, and I hope this isn't too pedantic, but whilst I agree with what you say, I feel that closing statement should say ".... why some people won't replace ...."

as the argument (and others like it) is valid for some, perhaps many, but not for all folk, and whilst convenience is a major factor in such a decision, so is the cost side, especially if it's significantly cheaper not to own a car, which is the suggestion (by Tony Seba).

Martyn1981 · 24 March 2018 at 1:39PM

Stageshoot wrote: »

I see so many posts about, "When its cheaper to own an EV compared to a ptrol/diesel)

But it already is, my Driving costs are over 50% less and I am a high mileage driver who changes car every year, if you stuck with one car longer then the savings jump even higher

That's a fantastic breakdown, cheers.

I like numbers, so I'm happy with the 'it's cheaper overall' argument, but I suspect mass market appeal will arrive as the purchase cost differential closes, sadly.

But so long as the press, and folk like you keep giving real world data, we may see opinions change faster. One thing is certain, EV's now have the lead, and will never lose it.

zeupater · 24 March 2018 at 2:38PM

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Hi Z, that all makes sense, but what I was saying is that the figure I've seen touted for fully autonomous is 8Tfps, and the M3 apparently has 10 of them.

So the issue of processing power for me, is whether or not that 8 figure is BS ... which it may of course be.

But if not, then we may have autonomous taxi's by the early 2020's.

Hi

The Teslas use PX2 processing units which, as you say, are rated at 8-10teraflops, however, nothing I've ever seen claims that the unit is capable of Level5 autonomy with Tesla themselves making mention of the potential for future retrofit computer upgrades ...

Low volume deliveries of the PX2 supposedly cost $15k each, of course when taking production volume batches they would be cheaper, but that gives an idea of the relative scale of costs ... the current processor unit which isn't capable of Level5 autonomy costs about the same as a small family car ...

Now, if the PX2 is capable of Level5 autonomy, why would it's manufacturer have developed more powerful platforms with somewhere in the region of 30x faster processing speed which are classified & offered as Level5 processing capable? .... you really only need to look at Tesla's own communications regarding their software wherein an update regarding their AI system the following was mentioned ....

... the foundation of the Tesla vision neural net is right, which was an exceptionally difficult problem, as it must fit into far less computing power than is typically used ...

Car_54 · 24 March 2018 at 3:26PM

Stageshoot wrote: »

I see so many posts about, "When its cheaper to own an EV compared to a ptrol/diesel)

But it already is, my Driving costs are over 50% less and I am a high mileage driver who changes car every year, if you stuck with one car longer then the savings jump even higher

2016
Volvo V40 6 Months Old Purchased from Major Car Supermarket
£15000 with 4k miles on clock
Ran for 13 months, added 40k miles

Costs
Insurance £385
12k Service £360
24k Service £360
36k Service £410
Fuel £4120

TOTAL RUNNING COSTS = £5635
CAR SOLD FOR £12000 Depreciation of £3000
TOTAL COSTS OVER 40000 Miles = 21p a mile
2017
BMW i3 REX Purchased as ExDemo from BMW
£21750 with 500 miles on clock
Ran for 13 months added 42k miles

Costs
Insurance £410
No Servicing Required
Fuel for Rex when run past battery limit £125
Public Recharging Costs £175
Home Recharging Costs £520

TOTAL RUNNING COSTS = £1230
CAR SOLD FOR £18000 Depreciation of £3750
TOTAL COSTS OVER 42000 Miles = 12p a mile

But around 65% of the fuel cost was made up of duty and VAT. Without those, the Volvo's costs would have been closer to 15p per mile. Still higher than the EV, but less spectacular.

Sooner or later the tax regime will have to change to erode the differential.

Martyn1981 · 24 March 2018 at 5:32PM

Car_54 wrote: »

Sooner or later the tax regime will have to change to erode the differential.

But, how much of that differential will be saved in reduced healthcare costs, and the costs of dealing with AGW, both of which already have tax and spend implications.

Hopefully all factors will be taken into consideration, and there will be further cost savings as the depreciation on EV's drops in line with their falling costs (mass production and cheaper batts).

AnotherJoe · 24 March 2018 at 11:38PM

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Hi. It's not as simple as that. At the moment a taxi is very expensive to use, making a car cheaper to own.

The argument for autonomous taxi's is that they could be 90% cheaper. This results from around 3x as much mileage from each vehicle (EV v's ICE), much cheaper fuel costs, much cheaper servicing/maintenance costs, but the huge one is the labour cost, the taxi driver.

So at the moment I see no problem in using an ICE car for a short journey, rather than paying a taxi, say £10 each way. But change that cost to £1 each way, without any hassle or cost of parking, and that could change the decision massively, even if you now own an EV.

So, it's not a simple answer, and we'll have to see how it goes, but if it's cheaper and easier, and avoids a large capital expenditure, then it may be better to not own a car, hard to say. But I do believe that it'll destroy the argument/market for second, third etc cars in a household.

Edit -

Just to be clear, and I hope this isn't too pedantic, but whilst I agree with what you say, I feel that closing statement should say ".... why some people won't replace ...."

as the argument (and others like it) is valid for some, perhaps many, but not for all folk, and whilst convenience is a major factor in such a decision, so is the cost side, especially if it's significantly cheaper not to own a car, which is the suggestion (by Tony Seba).

Well yes fair enough, i should have said "most"

I reject Seba's cost argument on the following grounds.

1. Seba himself says that most times (my emphasis ) cost drops by an order of magnitude, theres a step change. eg in this case from Owning, to Car As A Service, or in other words, cheaper taxis.

There's a whole lot of guff written about autonomous this that and the other but all it boils down to is, autonomous cars are (or will be) cheaper taxis. There's actually nothing else different about them, there's nothing new.

You'll see autonomy proponents spouting about how in the wonderful new world, i'll be able to use an app on my phone and summon an autonomous car. Well, guess what, i can use an app on my phone and summon a taxi right now.

So, taxis are in many cases already substantially cheaper than owning a car. Do we see a mass movement of people using taxis and dumping ownership (by which i include leasing etc) . Nope.

2. People will pay a LOT for convenience. Even a teeny tiny bit of convenience. As far as I'm concerned the mere fact you can buy pre-cooked jacket potatoes and even, !!!!!!, peeled oranges, says that the vast majority* of people are not going to dump their car when they could instead struggle in and out of taxis(aka autonomous cars = AV's) and save some money.

There are times when taxis are cheaper than using your own car and times when they are more expensive. But i do not believe the majority* of people decide whether to use a taxi based on cost. They do it on convenience. People use them, even if they are more expensive, when its more convenient, eg difficulty parking at destination, might wish to drink, unfamiliarity with area and so on. And they use their cars when its more convenient even if more expensive.

3. Studies I've seen say that drivers account for half the cost of the taxi fare, I dont buy your argument they are much more expensive or that a 90% reduction is possible.Cars can be shared between taxi drivers, so that argument is moot, taxi drivers could use EVs to get cheaper fares, so that argument is moot. Therefore the best you'll get is half price taxi fares by removing the driver and assuming that the cost of all the computing power etc is zero.

Thats not the order of magnitude Seba talks about, because also he talks about the difference between owning a car and using an AV. BUt we already have owning a car and using a taxi now so the comparison needs to be between owning a car and having half price taxis. I dont see that as compelling.

* see what i did there

Martyn1981 · 25 March 2018 at 1:14AM

AnotherJoe wrote: »

3. Studies I've seen say that drivers account for half the cost of the taxi fare, I dont buy your argument they are much more expensive or that a 90% reduction is possible.Cars can be shared between taxi drivers, so that argument is moot, taxi drivers could use EVs to get cheaper fares, so that argument is moot. Therefore the best you'll get is half price taxi fares by removing the driver and assuming that the cost of all the computing power etc is zero.

Hiya. Yep, I'd guess that the driver represents 50% too, so taking into account the cheaper cost of the vehicle (3x more usage) and lower fuel/maintenance costs and I think we are close to the 90% reduction I mentioned.

I appreciate that's not 90% cheaper than an EV, but the point I was making is that Tony could be right that the cost will be 90% less than today.

So in my example a £10 trip each way, becomes £1 each way, and saves the cost and hassle of parking. That may well be cheaper than the cost of own car use when all costs are taken into account.

So whilst I don't think the economics add up for most of us today (taxi v's own car), it might well do in the future when we consider all the fixed costs we will avoid, depreciation being the biggest, but also any taxes, insurance and maintenance. For new drivers they will also avoid the cost of learning.

It won't be for everyone, but if the savings are big enough, I think a lot of people will be persuaded ...... though I admit that the convenience factor will make it a hard choice for us, especially as we have a large dog crate on board at all times for boarding purposes.

Whatever happens, at least it'll be fun to watch and see, and hopefully enjoy some big, big changes in the relatively near future.

AnotherJoe · 25 March 2018 at 8:58AM

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Hiya. Yep, I'd guess that the driver represents 50% too, so taking into account the cheaper cost of the vehicle (3x more usage) and lower fuel/maintenance costs and I think we are close to the 90% reduction I mentioned.

I appreciate that's not 90% cheaper than an EV, but the point I was making is that Tony could be right that the cost will be 90% less than today.

So in my example a £10 trip each way, becomes £1 each way, and saves the cost and hassle of parking. That may well be cheaper than the cost of own car use when all costs are taken into account.

Take those claims one at a time.

3x more usage.
Why would that be?
People (by and large

) dont want taxis at 3am. Running the car 24 hours will not reduce cost by 3x because what is needed is the peak time amount of usage and you cant attain that by counting for a taxi being available at 3am if no one is using it.
Cars can already be shared where practical, Ive certainly seen that in some taxis I've been in, (multiple driver permits displayed) so much of that cost sharing is already be factored into the cost of today's taxis.
But overall the amount of taxis needed is whats needed at peak time. You cant cut that by 3 just because a car that might be running at 9am might be able to take a fare at 3am, since the number needed at 3am is a tiny fraction of the peak time use.

Lower fuel/maintenance costs. The new London taxi, to all intents and purposes a full EV, doesnt show a massive saving. A decent one, one that makes a real difference to the average london cab driver (and you wont get many more intense uses of a taxi than that) , but if you spread the £500/month over all the taxi journeys that month you are probably looking at a pound a trip, even if all the savings are passed on to the customer, which is highly unlikely, Uber arent doing this to make it cheaper for us, its to make it more profitable for them.

So that just leaves the driver cost. And we are back to half price taxi journeys if all the savings are passed to the consumer. (ha ha)

That may well be cheaper than the cost of own car use when all costs are taken into account.It may. But as i said taxis are likely cheaper for many now, and that hasnt caused a massive swap. People use taxis when convenient, their own cars when convenient.

This is all aside the debacle of the current Uber fatality where its clear there's a massive gap between the headlines and the ability, and the fact that we are being used as guinea pigs in a massive beta testing experiment where the penalty for failure is not a Blue Screen but death. (And thats death of uninvolved people who never gave consent to being lab rats).

Martyn1981 · 25 March 2018 at 9:31AM

Hiya, sorry I wasn't very clear, I was using the information better set out by Tony Seba. Here are my thoughts in a bit more detail:

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Take those claims one at a time.

3x more usage.
Why would that be?

Current ICE vehicles are good for about 150,000 miles, whilst current EV's are expected to be good for about 500,000 miles (1,000,000 soon?).

So the fixed cost of ownership, mainly depreciation, will be one third.

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Lower fuel/maintenance costs. The new London taxi, to all intents and purposes a full EV, doesnt show a massive saving. A decent one, one that makes a real difference to the average london cab driver (and you wont get many more intense uses of a taxi than that) , but if you spread the £500/month over all the taxi journeys that month you are probably looking at a pound a trip, even if all the savings are passed on to the customer, which is highly unlikely, Uber arent doing this to make it cheaper for us, its to make it more profitable for them.

The new London taxi's are BEV's with a range extender. I'm sure they will be a cheaper to run than an ICE, but I'd expect further savings in the future from a full EV. But regardless, the cost per mile of an EV is much, much lower than an ICE (fuel + maintenance).

AnotherJoe wrote: »

So that just leaves the driver cost. And we are back to half price taxi journeys if all the savings are passed to the consumer. (ha ha)

Yes, I'd guess that factor is half the taxi fare.

So let's reduce the fare by 50% for the taxi driver, then mileage costs by 90%, and vehicle depreciation by 67%.

Please accept that I'm only guessing, and also referring to what Tony said, but I suspect a 90% reduction in journey costs, v's today is possible.

AnotherJoe wrote: »

That may well be cheaper than the cost of own car use when all costs are taken into account.It may. But as i said taxis are likely cheaper for many now, and that hasnt caused a massive swap. People use taxis when convenient, their own cars when convenient.

Taxi's may be cheaper for some people today, but I suspect for most, like myself/Wifey, they are not.

The issue here is that if a taxi journey today cost £10, and in 5yrs time cost £1 (todays money), how much more of the car driving population would that then work for v's own ownership, and I suspect it would be significant.

AnotherJoe wrote: »

This is all aside the debacle of the current Uber fatality where its clear there's a massive gap between the headlines and the ability, and the fact that we are being used as guinea pigs in a massive beta testing experiment where the penalty for failure is not a Blue Screen but death. (And thats death of uninvolved people who never gave consent to being lab rats).

Fair point, but I think that the accident rate overall, will drop significantly when autonomous driving becomes practical. The cars won't get tired, distracted, drunk, they'll obey traffic lights and speeds, and may well be aware of vehicle faults too.

None of this will be perfect, but my guess (and it is just a guess) is that driving will become much safer overall - a knock on to that might be that insurance rates for own driving might rise significantly if we are felt to be a higher risk than AC ..... but I'm not sure?

Electric cars

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