Electric cars

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 wrote: »

The issue here is that if a taxi journey today cost £10, and in 5yrs time cost £1 (todays money),

Bit of a coincidence, but there's an article today with a similar cost. Just to be clear I'm really guessing here and just following the comments Tony Seba has made, but that £10 journey I'm picturing is to take me from home into the center of Cardiff, a journey of about 3 miles.

That would cost about £10 today, and I'm thinking that if Tony is right, it would be about £1 in the future (90% reduction).

This article 'assumes' a cost of 35c/mile, and I'll assume cents to pence as the UK is usually a bit more than the US, so 3 miles equals approx £1.

Who Will Benefit In The Robotaxi Revolution?

As self-driving cars move closer and closer to reality, one particular market stands to benefit - autonomous taxis (aka robotaxis). Tasha Keeny from Ark Invest recently evaluated the players who'd likely benefit from this massive market opportunity. Keeney writes, "Autonomous vehicles will transform personal mobility; reap[ing] the benefits of a new market which promises to ramp from essentially $0 now to $10 trillion in global gross annual revenues by 2030."

Keeny breaks this opportunity down into four segments. She notes, "We expect four types of firms to get a cut of the estimated $0.35 in revenue per mile that autonomous taxis will charge ... as shown below. Some companies probably will benefit from more than one source of revenues."

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Hiya, sorry I wasn't very clear, I was using the information better set out by Tony Seba. Here are my thoughts in a bit more detail:
...
Current ICE vehicles are good for about 150,000 miles, whilst current EV's are expected to be good for about 500,000 miles (1,000,000 soon?).

So the fixed cost of ownership, mainly depreciation, will be one third....

Hi

I'd take that simplistic approach with a tongue in cheek ... anywhere approaching 150k-200k miles and both the the passenger compartment and bodywork really do start to become remarkably shabby through use ... it's pretty safe to assess that what happens to today's vehicle interiors due to passenger usage will certainly apply to autonomous vehicles! ...

500k miles probably represents around 4-5years of continuous running at typical average urban speeds (stop/start - 12mph?) where the majority of 'taxi' type journeys would occur and would likely result in a condition similar to an average current vehicle which had been used for going on 70years (500k/average7.5k) .... with that kind of wear&tear there'll either be serious aesthetic condition maintenance (seats/paintwork etc) or replacement long before it's mechanically necessary else customers will stop using the service providers ...

Now, around here there's no nearby taxi service so it probably takes 10-15 minutes for one to arrive if despatched immediately but it can typically be between 30minutes & 2hours at the more popular times we'd be looking to use a taxi, which makes sense because they come from an area where they're used more frequently to an area where less people live & the economics of running a service means that sometimes there'll be a volume related service backlog ... it's unrealistic to assume that simply providing the same service on an autonomous basis would change this, so there's a basic inconvenience issue, yet this isn't the main flaw to consider ...

If autonomous vehicles are provided as a service, chances are that the market will be dominated by massive global players, similar to where Uber's ambitions lie .... now, taking the scenario that the private vehicle market has disappeared and everyone uses a form of sharing service, what happens to the pre-owned market? .... do the larger operators sell-on to potential competitors when their fleet starts to fall short of customer expectations and allow them to undercut their revenue stream, move the vehicles to less popular areas and continue use, or return them to the manufacturer for recycling?. This is important to us as we live in an area where all of the 'private hire' cars have already lived a previous existence & therefore been heavily depreciated before taking on a new role - it's the only way that the local services can maintain custom with the distances/time involved in their average journeys ... effectively, for taxi services around here, there's a cost for the 'man' and not much for the 'machine' which would likely be replaced by a much higher cost for the 'machine' & little for the 'man' (remember, cleaning/assistance etc which current drivers provide! - not all of the 'man' element is eliminated through autonomy, something else is required).

Adding this together, it's unlikely that the depreciation effect can logically be as simple as saying that the vehicle's power-train & drive-train will last for 3x the mileage therefore the maintenance & depreciation cost per mile will be 1/3 of that currently applicable ...

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Now, around here there's no nearby taxi service so it probably takes 10-15 minutes for one to arrive if despatched immediately but it can typically be between 30minutes & 2hours at the more popular times we'd be looking to use a taxi, which makes sense because they come from an area where they're used more frequently to an area where less people live & the economics of running a service means that sometimes there'll be a volume related service backlog ... it's unrealistic to assume that simply providing the same service on an autonomous basis would change this, so there's a basic inconvenience issue, yet this isn't the main flaw to consider ...

HTH
Z

Yep, expect the service to spread out from the urban areas first, where car ownership may already be being questioned by some, then into the suburbs, knocking off 2nd cars (etc) first.

I think that folk like yourself will come last, unfortunately.

Things should certainly get interesting as EV's, storage and RE all start to change the world, and then (perhaps?) the rise of the robot taxi's.

I'm looking forward to it, whatever happens, and however fast (or slow) the change might be.

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Yep, expect the service to spread out from the urban areas first, where car ownership may already be being questioned by some, then into the suburbs, knocking off 2nd cars (etc) first.

I think that folk like yourself will come last, unfortunately.

Things should certainly get interesting as EV's, storage and RE all start to change the world, and then (perhaps?) the rise of the robot taxi's.

I'm looking forward to it, whatever happens, and however fast (or slow) the change might be.

Hi

Autonomy will certainly happen, whether it'll achieve 100% market penetration by 2030 and result in a high degree of service based personal transport highly questionable though.

So far we've been discussing the provision of a 'taxi' type service to replace taxis and private hire vehicles for short trips, totally ignoring the daily 'company car' business user ... 30-50k miles per year (or more) in an autonomous shared taxi service makes somewhere between no and an expletive level amount of sense, so there's ownership and a source of pre-owned lumps of metal looking for a home when it gets too dirty or too outdated to be considered as an acceptable 'perk' for the ambitious company salesman ....

Regarding car ownership being questioned in urban areas ... that's exactly the point, it's been a question for decades where public transport is convenient & frequent, yet people in capital cities still buy cars that do little other than depreciate just for the convenience of them being at hand when required, so even in congested capital cities where it's inconvenient & unnecessary to own a car and has been ever since they were invented, people still believe they provide convenience and buy them ... that's the reality, people have been, are, and will continue to be of the opinion that convenience is more a necessity than a luxury even though it may not be the case ... try and reduce car ownership & usage by limiting use by some means or other & affluent city dwellers simply buy more cars to circumnavigate the rules ... change that mindset and convince them to travel in an everyday taxi then you'd be making a start .... so when will that be ? .... 2021, 2031, 2041 or later ?

The problem is that too much 'thinking' is conducted with a major urban mindset, concentrating on major urban issues which are likely most apparent in capital cities where 'think-tanks', decision makers and vested interest lobbyists are concentrated ... this is where the visionaries concentrate their efforts because everyone will see their point because the issues are all around them & therefore agreement is highly likely .... yet, the majority of the population live in less urbanised areas and simply see the questions & answers and think "really? & why?" to themselves and have the odd chuckle ...

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Regarding car ownership being questioned in urban areas ... that's exactly the point, it's been a question for decades where public transport is convenient & frequent, yet people in capital cities still buy cars that do little other than depreciate just for the convenience of them being at hand when required, so even in congested capital cities where it's inconvenient & unnecessary to own a car and has been ever since they were invented, people still believe they provide convenience and buy them ... that's the reality, people have been, are, and will continue to be of the opinion that convenience is more a necessity than a luxury even though it may not be the case ... try and reduce car ownership & usage by limiting use by some means or other & affluent city dwellers simply buy more cars to circumnavigate the rules ... change that mindset and convince them to travel in an everyday taxi then you'd be making a start .... so when will that be ? .... 2021, 2031, 2041 or later ?

HTH
Z

But, the issue raised by Tony, and I've tried to point it out several times, is that the cost of the 'taxi service' will drop dramatically, perhaps by 90%. So the argument that the option already exists isn't true. If it did, I would have no time for Tony's predictions.

I find what you and Joe are saying interesting, but I have to be honest and say I don't find it as convincing v's the position set out by Tony.

I believe that if the hypothetical £10 journey I've mentioned, became £9, some more people would ditch car ownership, and more would at £8, and more at £7 etc etc.

Since we are not discussing a small saving, such as £10 down to £7, but possibly £10 down to £1, I feel the impact will be very significant. But of course you may be right, and it may be much smaller.

Obviously, this is just my view, and what will happen will happen, and what won't, won't, but regardless it'll get interesting, and certainly in urban areas I think we will see less cars parked on the side of the road, so journey times will hopefully improve.

As I say, I think it will be fun to watch and enjoy the transition.

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

But, the issue raised by Tony, and I've tried to point it out several times, is that the cost of the 'taxi service' will drop dramatically, perhaps by 90%. So the argument that the option already exists isn't true. If it did, I would have no time for Tony's predictions.

I find what you and Joe are saying interesting, but I have to be honest and say I don't find it as convincing v's the position set out by Tony.

I believe that if the hypothetical £10 journey I've mentioned, became £9, some more people would ditch car ownership, and more would at £8, and more at £7 etc etc.

Since we are not discussing a small saving, such as £10 down to £7, but possibly £10 down to £1, I feel the impact will be very significant. But of course you may be right, and it may be much smaller.

Obviously, this is just my view, and what will happen will happen, and what won't, won't, but regardless it'll get interesting, and certainly in urban areas I think we will see less cars parked on the side of the road, so journey times will hopefully improve.

As I say, I think it will be fun to watch and enjoy the transition.

Hi

There are questions then ...

Firstly, autonomy isn't exclusive to EVs - it's just as valid in ICE vehicles as long as the electrical system can cope with the power requirement of the processing equipment (possibly ~500W), but the issue I worry about is in linking autonomy to EVs the cost bar is raised significantly, therefore the price also rises. The result? - delay in the uptake of EVs until prices fall or delay in the uptake of EVs until the consumer mindset accepts a transport as a service model ... Q: EV today or EV delay ?

Next, the majority of UK vehicle sales aren't private sales, they're business or hire fleet. It's pretty logical to assume that if there's a business requirement to allocate a vehicle to a position this will not change - if someone needs to drive 50k miles/year on business they'll not be using a taxi, it'll be on a business lease finance arrangement as it currently is. My own opinion is that this will be the initial market segment to target for autonomy as it releases the occupant to perform business duties whilst travelling between appointments - remember 'let the train take the strain' ?, well that's exactly what a company will pay a premium for, in effect high initial prices for autonomy could provide a huge efficiency cost benefit which can be used to develop the economies of scale required to kick-start the necessary AI equipment processing cost reductions ... Q: Is this a more realistic approach to rolling out autonomy ?

Following on from that - The idea of a 90% cost reduction of taxi service provision is based on utilising the vehicle for an extended mechanical life without regard to the necessary additional 'cosmetic' requirements & fully ignoring the variability in usage demand patterns. I've seen this dismissed plenty of times simply by mentioning working pattern changes, working from home etc ... but apart from the urban based academic-types who raise this because it would work for them, what proportion of the general population/workforce would it also apply to? - in industry or retail far fewer than they're making allowance for, therefore the service based 'taxi' fleet would need to guaranty to cope with maximum peak demand, that being when most are travelling to/from work or on the school run etc. In attempting to reduce the depreciation of vehicles when sitting on drives, will the depreciation location simply be relocated to a large 'taxi rank' where the majority of vehicles (~80% ?) are used for a very small proportion of the day (~3-4Hrs ?) .... Q: If a large proportion of autonomous taxi service vehicles are used so infrequently, how is the depreciation whilst not earning financed whilst maintaining a fleet which is guaranteed by a penalty based SLA (Service Level Agreement) other than through charging for the unproductive time within the service pricing structure ?

These are just a few simple points, but the questions raised are fundamental because they impact on the EV uptake timeline by unnecessarily conflating two issues - electrification & full autonomy ... automation may suit the high mileage businessman, but would that need full autonomy, or simply the ability to engage a long distance 'motorway office' mode ? ... time will tell, but is it necessary to delay EV uptake through waiting for a fully developed & acceptable autonomy technology solution to be market ready, then further delay to mass-market acceptance whilst prices fall simply to suit the multinationals who would like us to 'buy' their service & destroy the concept of designated ownership? ... that's the relevant quandary!

HTH
Z

almillar

Current ICE vehicles are good for about 150,000 miles, whilst current EV's are expected to be good for about 500,000 miles (1,000,000 soon?).

What developments in technology are you expecting to make a chassis, suspension, interiors, last 1,000,000 miles?! Cars aren't just about the battery and motor. I'd say stick with 150,000 miles, same as ICE, just to be safe, as an average.

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

There are questions then ...

HTH
Z

You make good points Z, and it's all interesting reading, but I'm afraid it's still a 'no sale' for me, I'm still siding with Tony and a large shift, but as I say, it's all interesting and the changeover will be fun to watch, whether it's a small one, or a large one.

Martyn1981

almillar wrote: »

What developments in technology are you expecting to make a chassis, suspension, interiors, last 1,000,000 miles?! Cars aren't just about the battery and motor. I'd say stick with 150,000 miles, same as ICE, just to be safe, as an average.

I seem to recall that whilst cars of capable of many 100's of thousands of miles, their cost becomes too high due to the ever increasing cost of maintaining the powertrain and drivetrain.

But .... it might be best to get it from the horse's mouth as I'm likely to have forgotten more and more over time. Also the whole presentation is fascinating, looking at disruptive technologies as well as EV's and PV.

Tony Seba: Clean Disruption - Energy & Transportation

Herzlos

i

almillar wrote: »

What developments in technology are you expecting to make a chassis, suspension, interiors, last 1,000,000 miles?! Cars aren't just about the battery and motor. I'd say stick with 150,000 miles, same as ICE, just to be safe, as an average.

Why the limit? And no, components don't need to last 1,000,000 miles if they are easy enough to replace. Automated cars could easily sense when a suspension component is worn and book into a repair shop.
Whole interiors could be replaced.

The reason we stop doing that on ICE cars is because if the engine goes (and most have a relatively short life), it's worth more than the car to replace and thus just not worth it.
If the motor is still in good condition it's a lot harder to justify scrapping it over a trivial replacement.

We might see battery replacements killing off the cars, when they hit a point where they aren't worth replacing. But I think that's still more than the 150,000 we're assuming an ICE is capable of.