Brexit vote: The breakdown

CLAPTON

Moby wrote: »

People at the bottom of the pile were always going to suffer most from the politics of austerity......nothing new there Steve.....the idea that May, Johnston, Fox, Davis etc has anything to say to them is naive. These tories are using the new populism, energised by anger/fear over immigration to further their own political objectives:-

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/13/brexit-leave-voters-theresa-may-promise

the people at the bottom are the beneficiaries of the welfare state:
whilst it could be argued that they should receive higher handouts, their current situation is helped by the tory increase in minimum wage and the increase in tax thresholds but hindered by the constant increase in labour force that holds wages down.

It is certainly true that political parties tend to try further their own political objectives : it is particularly sad that labour has no political objectives that would have any positive effects on normal working people.

Moby

CLAPTON wrote: »

the people at the bottom are the beneficiaries of the welfare state:
whilst it could be argued that they should receive higher handouts, their current situation is helped by the tory increase in minimum wage and the increase in tax thresholds but hindered by the constant increase in labour force that holds wages down.

It is certainly true that political parties tend to try further their own political objectives : it is particularly sad that labour has no political objectives that would have any positive effects on normal working people.

The welfare state includes the NHS and state pensions. We are all beneficiaries of the welfare state. Labour brought in the minimum wage under Blair and it was originally fought all the way by the tories. Cheap labour from abroad may have held down wages in some sectors and this needs addressing....but much of the evidence for this is actually pretty thin. Addressing these issues, (working rights, conditions etc is Labours policy!

You're ignoring the substantive point re. who has been affected most by the politics of austerity!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/13/brexit-leave-voters-theresa-may-promise

ruggedtoast

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But what on earth do people expect?

Life is on the whole one giant meritocracy - the vast majority of successful people are successful simply because they work hard and invested time, effort and sacrifice in getting to the place they are today.

If they needed qualifications they got them.

If they needed to move for career opportunities they moved.

If they needed to invest extra time, energy and effort in the workplace to get promoted they did so.

Successful people by and large earned their success and paid for it with blood sweat and tears.

And the corollary of that is the vast majority of people who are relatively ordinary, or even distinctly unsuccessful, deserve exactly what they get out of life given that most things in this world are achieved on merit.

Nobody is owed a living - and even less is anyone owed a good living - these things have to be earned... and the harsh but true reality is that most people have only themseleves to thank or blame for their outcomes in life.



It will make things much, much worse for most of these people, but that isn't the truly dangerous part of all this.

The danger is that by humouring this entirely fallacious notion of victimisation, of blaming the other, and indulging the politics of envy... Society has only deferred the inevitable realisation that will have to come one day.

And that realisation is that it's not the fault of bankers, or politicians, or immigrants, or the establishment, or the elites, that they have nothing in life - it's only the fault of themselves.

If you think the "simmering resentment and frustration" is bad now - just wait until they realise they've been conned into voting for Brexit with false promises of a better life - when the reality is it will make their lives exponentially more miserable than they already are.

What do you think will happen then?

Once people have run out of scapegoats to blame for their own failures?

Do you think they'll finally wake up and realise it's not the EU, or Immigrants, or Elites, that are to blame for their position in life but only themselves?

I don't...

And unless politicians take that bull by the horn very rapidly indeed and start educating the public about the consequences of their actions and managing expectations a whole lot more effectively it almost certainly won't end well for anyone....

There are more graduates now than at any point in history, and the gig economy and lack of housing is forcing people to be flexible and mobile. So I don't think you can blame all people for not trying to help themselves.

Irrespective of all this, I agree that the "psychological contract" between people and government is failing and government is not responding.

As this Opinion Piece in the Guardian points out. Brexit voters wanted radical change. They aren't going to get it from Theresa May and her £1000 leggings.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/13/brexit-leave-voters-theresa-may-promise

More to the point, it’s not clear what May’s initial promises of a fresh start were worth. She steeled herself to call off the expensive disaster of Hinkley C – then meekly waved it through. She vowed to install workers on company boards – then the idea didn’t even make it on to a green paper. She promised to stick up for “just about managing” families, then allowed her chancellor instead to carry on slashing taxes for multinationals.

And then there’s foreign ownership of Britain’s infrastructure. Remember how May promised to scrutinise any proposed takeovers of such strategic assets as water, energy and transport? Well, last week, while the rightwing commentators were diligently huffing and puffing over Gina Miller at the supreme court, another kind of sovereignty was being covered on the City pages. The National Grid announced it would sell a majority of its gas pipelines to a consortium of largely overseas investors, including China and Qatar, and led by an Australian investment bank, Macquarie.

Clearly May doesn't understand any of the anger that led to Brexit.

CLAPTON

Moby wrote: »

The welfare state includes the NHS and state pensions. We are all beneficiaries of the welfare state. Labour brought in the minimum wage under Blair and it was originally fought all the way by the tories. Cheap labour from abroad may have held down wages in some sectors and this needs addressing....but much of the evidence for this is actually pretty thin. Addressing these issues, (working rights, conditions etc is Labours policy!

You're ignoring the substantive point re. who has been affected most by the politics of austerity!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/13/brexit-leave-voters-theresa-may-promise

The poorest in society are the largest net beneficiaries of the welfare state. Some people are net contributors.

The current level of the minimum wage and the tax free allowance is the result of tory policy. As usual you (and the labour party) are fighting yesterday battles.
The high levels of employment could reasonably be credited at least in part to the government policies.

Its pretty standard economic theory that increase in the supply of labour decreases the price. Interesting too that all the 'remain' economists and CBi etc always comment on increase in price of goods due to labour costs if we stop free movement although I note you always ignore that part of the remain analysis.

The article you reference just seems to be the usual Guardian rant about the evils of brexit and the Tories without anything of substance to say.

The government is still spending more that it taxes : austerity seems the wrong word to be using.

kabayiri

Don't underestimate the effect long term of the Brexit vote.

I have no doubt that it was seen in some parts of the UK as an anti-establishment vote.

If you are unhappy with your lot, at least this reminds you that your vote has an impact.

It's the same with the election of Trump. Nobody has a genuine clue if he will bring prosperity. But the votes from the rust belt have certainly disturbed the seasoned political analysts over there too.

Isn't this democracy? Ie, to still believe your vote counts?

The place this doesn't yet work is in Euroland. Ask the Greeks if voting in Syriza had any impact. They are effectively neutered by the EU troika.

If they don't come up with serious answers to youth unemployment in the EU, then I suspect we will see more surprising results over in mainland Europe.

mrginge

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But what on earth do people expect?

They expect to be treated fairly Hamish.

Everything you wrote after the above in your 'post of the month' is all about how much money people have got and if you haven't got it then you're clearly a failure in life.

It's the politics of the 80s I'm afraid and the fact that you're still living that dream is very telling.

mwpt

kabayiri wrote: »

The place this doesn't yet work is in Euroland. Ask the Greeks if voting in Syriza had any impact. They are effectively neutered by the EU troika.

Creditors always impose conditions on money being lent. Either in the simple case of a coupon on the bond or in the more complex cases where a country requires a bailout. The IMF does this in the form of austerity conditions. We all pay toward the IMF and we expect that when they get involved the money is not going down a black hole and that reforms are made by the country in question.

This is what is going on in Greece, except the organisation doing the bailout is the ECB rather than the IMF. But the same thing applies.

If the Greeks were not happy with the conditions, they should have rejected them and rolled the dice with a default. Why is it the EU's fault that the Greek government chose to accept their terms?

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

Creditors always impose conditions on money being lent. Either in the simple case of a coupon on the bond or in the more complex cases where a country requires a bailout. The IMF does this in the form of austerity conditions. We all pay toward the IMF and we expect that when they get involved the money is not going down a black hole and that reforms are made by the country in question.

This is what is going on in Greece, except the organisation doing the bailout is the ECB rather than the IMF. But the same thing applies.

If the Greeks were not happy with the conditions, they should have rejected them and rolled the dice with a default. Why is it the EU's fault that the Greek government chose to accept their terms?

very true : the Greeks should realise the dysfunctional nature of the EU and leave.

Moby

CLAPTON wrote: »

The poorest in society are the largest net beneficiaries of the welfare state. Some people are net contributors.

The price of living in a civilised country

The current level of the minimum wage and the tax free allowance is the result of tory policy. As usual you (and the labour party) are fighting yesterday battles.
The high levels of employment could reasonably be credited at least in part to the government policies.

So many insecure crap paying jobs though Clappers. The Tax Free allowance is good though........ but set against everything else?
Social Care is a boring subject but it is in total crisis....NHS is also deteriorating fast.

Its pretty standard economic theory that increase in the supply of labour decreases the price. Interesting too that all the 'remain' economists and CBi etc always comment on increase in price of goods due to labour costs if we stop free movement although I note you always ignore that part of the remain analysis.

Watch inflation rise from now on and observe who it hits most!

The article you reference just seems to be the usual Guardian rant about the evils of brexit and the Tories without anything of substance to say

Code for I'll disregard it because it does not fit with my world view.

The government is still spending more that it taxes : austerity seems the wrong word to be using.

So there haven't been any cutbacks in funding in local Govmt etc? I'm not a deficit denier....I'm saying austerity hasn't worked as a solution to it and the hardships being experienced by people up and down this country are often being laid at the door of immigrants taking their resources.

CLAPTON

Moby wrote: »

The price of living in a civilised country

the huge benefit of living in a civilised society to which you NEVER refer

So many insecure crap paying jobs though Clappers. The Tax Free allowance is good though........ but set against everything else?
Social Care is a boring subject but it is in total crisis....NHS is also deteriorating fast.

presumably you would prefer higher unemployment instead:
I've never understood why the left doesn't start its own high paying employment as it, allegedly, is so easy.
Anyway, don't you believe that immigration is forcing wages higher and allowing people ro reject poor jobs?

I agree the NHS needs reform along EU models, with the need to pay as the point of delivery. Social care and NHS do need to be more intergrated.

Watch inflation rise from now on and observe who it hits most!

depend upon whether their incomes are rising faster than inflation.

Code for I'll disregard it because it does not fit with my world view.

which specific part of the anti brexit rant are you referring to?

So there haven't been any cutbacks in funding in local Govmt etc? I'm not a deficit denier....I'm saying austerity hasn't worked as a solution to it and the hardships being experienced by people up and down this country are often being laid at the door of immigrants taking their resources.

the UK is doing well compared to much of europe who travelled an alternative path.

what is your solution ? massive new borrowing, a few million immigrants to produce the wealth we need?
Increase in population does mean our housing is more crowded, it does mean access to NHS is harder, it does mean the trains and roads are more crowded.