The thread for pointless arguments about Brexit

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

there are about 170 countries in the world that don't have free movement of people with the EU but do trade: why do you consider that impossible?

And how much trade to we currently do with them? How many of them would provide the sorts of opportunities we lose from the EU?
How much more will it cost than trade with the EU?

Take cars for example; China buys a lot of (high end) UK Cars (though all owned by German companies), but what about the rest of the world? The Americas don't, and won't. Africa doesn't and won't. India doesn't and won't, and so on.

enthusiasticsaver

One more positive - we have seen the last of Boris as his career disappears in a puff of smoke. Not sure who is going to put the leave vote into action though unless it will be that twit Gove.

JACKBLACK

Herzlos wrote: »

How do you come to that conclusion?

Because it would be political suicide to not do it now.

I also believe that it is entirely possible other EU countries are starting to want to stop free movement too (look at the noises coming out of France).

Free movement was great when we were a small block of roughly similar economies. It has been a dreadful failure since enlargement.

I honestly believe that if it's a choice between free movement and a trade deal - we will walk away from the table with no trade deal. I'm sure the US would rather we bought their cars rather than Germany's.

We will, however, get plenty of trade deals from other countries. They are probably negotiating them as I type.

JACKBLACK

Herzlos wrote: »

And how much trade to we currently do with them?

We do more trade with the rest of the world than we do with the EU. Now we have left, we will also be able to negotiate our own trade deals - so potentially that trade with the rest of the world can increase. The EU is holding us back. It's too large and inflexible. And it has a major problem managing its currency because of the lack of political union which is now crippling some countries who have terrible unemployment levels.

How many of them would provide the sorts of opportunities we lose from the EU?
How much more will it cost than trade with the EU?

Now we will find out. We have some great companies and hopefully a government that create the right environment in which they can do business.

Herzlos

And it's economic (and therefor political) suicide not to go for the trade deals, which will only come with the movement.

It's political suicide for whoever takes over, whatever happens.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

And how much trade to we currently do with them? How many of them would provide the sorts of opportunities we lose from the EU?
How much more will it cost than trade with the EU?

Take cars for example; China buys a lot of (high end) UK Cars (though all owned by German companies), but what about the rest of the world? The Americas don't, and won't. Africa doesn't and won't. India doesn't and won't, and so on.

under half of our trade is with the countries of the EU : most of this will continue; doubtless there will be change just as there has has been continuously overt he last 300 years.
I'm not sure what your point is about cars: as we are a net importer of cars, it would seem we have plenty of scope to build more cars in the UK for our own market.

why are you so obsessed about the merits of ever higher population; there is no evidence that large is richer or better per capita

JACKBLACK

Herzlos wrote: »

And it's economic (and therefor political) suicide not to go for the trade deals, which will only come with the movement.

It's political suicide for whoever takes over, whatever happens.

That's where we differ. I don't think we need a trade deal with the EU that badly. I think we have a great future outside the EU. Honestly, I think companies will find us a more attractive prospect now we are not attached to the crisis ridden EU.

By the way, I wish the EU well too.

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

under half of our trade is with the countries of the EU : most of this will continue; doubtless there will be change just as there has has been continuously overt he last 300 years.
I'm not sure what your point is about cars: as we are a net importer of cars, it would seem we have plenty of scope to build more cars in the UK for our own market.

Yes, we could build more cars locally and reduce the requirement to import them. But are there any mass volume British manufacturers left?

It's also somewhat practical to trade with our neighbors; it's more profitable than shipping stuff round the world. Yes we'll still trade with the EU, but if we don't get a good trade deal, then it'll cost us a lot more in both directions. We just don't have enough sway to make the EU give in.

why are you so obsessed about the merits of ever higher population; there is no evidence that large is richer or better per capita

Because it seems that the only actual benefit being touted by this nightmare of a decision is the new "control" we'll get over immigration, as if reducing immigration is actually a good thing.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Yes, we could build more cars locally and reduce the requirement to import them. But are there any mass volume British manufacturers left?

It's also somewhat practical to trade with our neighbors; it's more profitable than shipping stuff round the world. Yes we'll still trade with the EU, but if we don't get a good trade deal, then it'll cost us a lot more in both directions. We just don't have enough sway to make the EU give in.



Because it seems that the only actual benefit being touted by this nightmare of a decision is the new "control" we'll get over immigration, as if reducing immigration is actually a good thing.

I doubt our competence to discuss the economics and feasibility of car manufacturing but it does seem that many cars are shipped all round the world presumbaly making a profit.

The mass car manufacturers in the UK are called Honda, Nissan, Vauxhall, BMW
If it was profitable I would guess they would build more here.

Trade doesn't require a deal deal, it just requires mutually beneficial trade.

Herzlos

Another thing to consider with this rest of world trade - how much more new trade would we need to establish to make up for any losses from the EU (and contracts/tenders are already being cancelled)? How long will that take? Will we survive the economical hit whilst that goes on?

Why not try and take full advantage of both markets? Is keeping foreigners out really that important?