Deutsche Bank toxic derivative losses

Thrugelmir

theEnd wrote: »

There's no industry wide problems, so they'll easily be able to sell assets if/when they struggle to raise capital.

Ridding themselves of the non profitable parts of the empire such as Postbank in Germany is where the real challenge lies.

AG47

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Going to cut over 10,000 jobs. Trouble is in Germany takes 24-30 months to effect such changes.

Is that another 10,000 on top of the thousands already cut?

I guarantee DB will not last another 12 months no matter 24-30. No matter how many jobs they cut.

Thrugelmir

AG47 wrote: »

Is that another 10,000 on top of the thousands already cut?

I guarantee DB will not last another 12 months no matter 24-30. No matter how many jobs they cut.

RBS as a trading operation has survived from a far worse financial position.

cogito

Thrugelmir wrote: »

RBS as a trading operation has survived from a far worse financial position.

RBS was bailed out by the UK government. Under EU law, the Germans cannot bail out DB. On the other hand, EU law as it applied to Greece, Cyprus and Portugal probably won't be applied to Germany.

Just because.

Thrugelmir

cogito wrote: »

RBS was bailed out by the UK government. Under EU law, the Germans cannot bail out DB.

What's to stop the German Government buying new shares in DB ?

cogito

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What's to stop the German Government buying new shares in DB ?

Probably not much although there would have to be an 8% bail in of the banks depositors and they would have to buy them under market conditions i.e. with the participation of private investors.


Also, this from the WSJ:


Berlin could use a loophole in the bank-rescue legislation that allows a precautionary state recapitalization of a bank that has failed a stress test. The finance ministry could try to persuade the bank’s supervisor to test Deutsche’s capital cushion, allowing the government to step in with a capital injection should the bank fail the test.
While some economists see this as bending the rules, most say it would leave them intact.


They could only do this if the bank was distressed as distinct from insolvent.

AG47

cogito wrote: »

Probably not much although there would have to be an 8% bail in of the banks depositors and they would have to buy them under market conditions i.e. with the participation of private investors.


Also, this from the WSJ:


Berlin could use a loophole in the bank-rescue legislation that allows a precautionary state recapitalization of a bank that has failed a stress test. The finance ministry could try to persuade the bank’s supervisor to test Deutsche’s capital cushion, allowing the government to step in with a capital injection should the bank fail the test.
While some economists see this as bending the rules, most say it would leave them intact.


They could only do this if the bank was distressed as distinct from insolvent.

Even just an 8% bail in would send shock waves around the world, many more people would see that keeping your money in the bank at zero interest rates is return free risk.

wotsthat

AG47 wrote: »

I guarantee DB will not last another 12 months no matter 24-30. No matter how many jobs they cut.

How will their customers cope with not being able to withdraw from cashpoints for another 12 months?

AG47

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What's to stop the German Government buying new shares in DB ?

The value of the shares will fall through the floor even more.

AG47

DB are now getting criminal fine for the silver manipulation, it's not going to be $14 Bilion like the other criminal fines.

But the most amazing thing is they said they will grass on some other criminals to get smaller fines, shows how spdesperate they are, also shows the criminal silver manipulation should be coming to an rend soon.