Deutsche Bank toxic derivative losses

MobileSaver

pop_gun wrote: »

Crashing the global economy helps everyone (including the U.S.).

AG47 wrote: »

Now we wait for S&P to downgrade DB and put the final nail in the coffin.

Let's say you and pop_gun are right and Deutsche Bank goes pop... will UK house prices crash by 50%?

pop_gun

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Yeah it's called shale.............:cool:

Three of the largest U.S. shale oil wells (Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian) have seen an annual production decline rate of 47%, 55%, 22% respectively. Even though these rates of decline aren't constant, it does show that shale isn't sustainable for a prolonged period.
Certainly not for the 1992 production rates you cite.

Even so, the energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) makes recovery a worthless endeavour, regardless of oil price.

masterwilde

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/08/29/deutsche-banks-10-billion-scandal

a good write up, worth a read

pop_gun

AG47 wrote: »

10/10/2016 Update: DB = No Deal and Problems Intensify

Deutsche Bank's stock price was "saved" at the end of the 3rd quarter by rumors that they have secured a settlement with the US Department of Justice for around $5B. After bottoming at around 9.90 Euro the stock zoomed back above 10.00 euro and is currently trading around 12.30 Euro...all on a rumor.

During this time Deutsche Bank was able to raise $3B in a bond offering announced on Friday after the close. This time the "spin line" of the fund raising was not that they desperately needed the money but rather it was the INVESTORS that had begged Deutsche Bank for the higher yielding bonds!!

Deutsche Bank sells $3 billion bond as investors seek spread
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-bond-bonds-idUSKCN1280MN

NEW YORK (IFR) - Deutsche Bank issued its first US dollar-denominated bond in five months on Friday when its raised $3 billion through a five-year issue following reverse enquiry from investors, a person close to the deal told IFR.

The senior unsecured bond priced just below par with a coupon of 4.25% and at a spread of 300bp over Treasuries.

The bond is the first sold by Deutsche Bank in the US dollar market since May when it raised $3.6 billion from three and five-year debt, and follows a sharp widening in its spreads.

END

You really can't make this stuff up!

Now that the purpose of the "deal rumor" is complete it's time to get back to reality...

Deutsche Bank fails to score Justice Dept. deal, shares fall
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-deutsche-bank-stocks-idUSKCN12A0LS

Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) shares fell more than 3 percent on Monday after Chief Executive John Cryan failed to secure a speedy deal with the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) over the weekend over the misselling of mortgage-backed securities.

Cryan was attending the International Monetary Fund and World Bank's autumn meetings in Washington, raising hopes that he might personally negotiate down the $14 billion fine the DoJ has demanded.

"One had hoped that a quick agreement was possible," a German trader said.

By 0818 GMT, Deutsche Bank shares had pared losses but were still at the bottom of a flat German blue-chip index .GDAXI, down 3 percent at 11.74 euros.

"They had a bit of a bounce up last week, but I would still steer clear of Deutsche Bank," said Terry Torrison, managing director at Monaco-based McLaren Securities.

"They were never going to sort out the U.S. issues that quickly, and whatever happens, I still think they will need to have a rights issue."

Deutsche Bank is expected to issue new shares, sell assets, or both, once it knows the scale of the fine, to ensure that its capital ratio remains within regulatory limits.

END

Right back to where we should have been at the end of the 3rd quarter.

But that's not all. Word that Deutsche Bank was given "special treatment" during the ECB Stress Test is now being reported by the Financial Times...

Deutsche Bank was given special treatment in EU stress tests
https://www.ft.com/content/44768ea8-8c71-11e6-8aa5-f79f5696c731

German lender's result was boosted by a special concession agreed by the European Central Bank.

Germany's biggest lender, which has seen its share price fall as much as 22 per cent in recent weeks on fears that it could face a US fine of up to $14bn, has been using the results of the July stress tests as evidence of its healthy finances.

But the Financial Times has learnt that Deutsche's result was boosted by a special concession agreed by its supervisor, the European Central Bank.

Deutsche's results included the $4bn proceeds from selling its stake in Chinese lender Hua Xia even though the deal had not been done by the end of 2015, the official cut-off point for transactions to be included.

The Hua Xia sale was agreed in December 2015. It has still not been completed and now faces a delay after missing a regulatory deadline last month, though the bank is still confident of completion this year.

END

So the take down of the world's largest derivative holder continues as we await "the day" that they announce that Deutsche Bank is insolvent and it's 2008 all over again.

But this time THERE WILL BE NO BAILOUT OF THE BANKSTERS!!

10/6/2016 Update: New Deutsche Bank Problems

After a few days of rest and recuperation for Deutsche Bank with MSM press-tatutes saying their tailspin is recoverable, there is more and more news of additional fraud being exposed. This is a very fertile area for the Good Guys to take down this criminal bank and they can bring more and more of this kind of criminality whenever they want...

The Latest Deutsche Bank Scandal Reeks On Enron: 103 "Enhanced Repo" Deals To Make Loans "Disappear"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-06/latest-deutsche-bank-scandal-reeks-enron-103-enhanced-repo-deals-make-loans-disappea

I am shocked, shocked, absolutely shocked, to read on Bloomberg this morning that Deutsche Bank has been indicted for colluding with Monte di Busti for concealing losses, mismarking books and the rest. And guess what? Germany's premier bank has been doing much the same for a raft of other clients -- arranging over 100 deals for 30 clients that allowed them to pass off loans as derivatives. In view of the questions around DB's own derivatives book.. nope I won't go there.

Are we surprised? Frankly we are not.

END

I believe the stock price has already bottomed for the time being as it dipped below the 10 Euro price on the last day of the quarter on Friday which I think may have triggers some of the COCO bond conversions they needed to"paint the tape" on Q3. No news in the press about that yet though.

You must see by now that this is a planned and orchestrated Take Down by the Good Guys and there will be no White Knight coming to aid DB in the end. The US controllers are making sure of that and THEY were the one's that started the ball rolling with the $14B fine levied against the world's most systemically weak bank!!

Now we wait for S&P to downgrade DB and put the final nail in the coffin.

AG47, you're aware of the financial warfare between the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. has seen the growing influence of Russia in Europe and wants to curb it. Russia and China want an end to the dollar reserve as it's no longer fit for purpose.
China has a $3trn reserve that it can't spend on the things it wants. America won't allow China to buy up U.S. businesses or it's subsidiaries (anti trust law\national security) or acquire more than it's allotted share of OPEC oil. Among other things. This on top of the U.S. running huge trade and fiscal deficits. America is trashing it's currency and China is left holding the trash!
Russia is the biggest oil producer in the world. The current status doesn't favour them.
I interpret the events (in your post) regarding DB, in the following manner. Russia\China or both wanted DB to stop trading U.S. treasury bonds. DB obliges. High level talks behind the scenes we aren't privy to lead to DB being charged with wrongdoing and fined.
DB seeks to sell a Chinese company it owns, in order to raise capital. DB must have known the U.S. charges were in the works.
China, which is heavily liquid in dollars doesn't finalise the sale.

Chinese leverage on DB and subsequently Germany?

DB do a deal with the U.S. justice department\U.S. treasury which sees $9bn wiped off the fine. Oh and DB starts selling U.S. bonds again. The first time in 5 month!

The DB scandal is in place to make sure DB keeps to it's end of the bargain. Nothing will come of it unless DB stops selling those treasury notes.

cogito

The biggest oil producer is the USA followed by Saudi Arabia. Russia comes third.

Thrugelmir

pop_gun wrote: »

America won't allow China to buy up U.S. businesses or it's subsidiaries (anti trust law\national security) or acquire more than it's allotted share of OPEC oil.

The floatation of Saudi Aramco gives China just the opening it needs. The fact that Saudi needs the money. Is a clear illustration of the end of an era.

AG47

MobileSaver wrote: »

Let's say you and pop_gun are right and Deutsche Bank goes pop... will UK house prices crash by 50%?

If DB goes pop (looking very likely) then the entire banking system collapses. No more electronic transactions anywhere period.

That's what too big to fail means, they can't fail or the entire global financial system goes down, but they have already failed they are just kicking the can.

Every tenant will default, simply because the banking system is temporarily down. There will be confusion and things will go crazy until the free market finds correct values in whatever system replaces the old one the world is still using now.

I think precious metals will be safer than property.

But more than likely there will be a bail in to buy a bit more time for the walking dead DB.

TrickyTree83

Can't agree about precious metals, that's counter intuitive to a post apocalyptic financial meltdown. Shelter will remain a prized asset, metals that go in a smart phone or fancy jewellery, not so much. Food, water, electricity and shelter will be key products. Gold, silver and platinum can jog on.

Thrugelmir

Good old boring utilities.

AG47

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Can't agree about precious metals, that's counter intuitive to a post apocalyptic financial meltdown. Shelter will remain a prized asset, metals that go in a smart phone or fancy jewellery, not so much. Food, water, electricity and shelter will be key products. Gold, silver and platinum can jog on.

How are people going to pay for said shelter? If the financial/banking system goes down, when DB collapse can't be postponed any longer, or if currency collapses.

Property will correct to true value from its manipulated bubble high.