Brexit - Economic impact?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

wymondham wrote: »

Who knows? nobody does... it could be so much better...

And it could be so much worse.

The highest probability and the consensus amongst most economic forecasters, and 90% of economists polled on the matter, is that it would be materially worse.

Now I'll accept that there is uncertainty around exactly how much worse, that's the bit that 'nobody knows', but that it would in fact be significantly worse for most people is really beyond doubt.

Where the Brexit camp have been very successful is in lying to the public and offering them false hope.

Because just like with the Scottish indyref they have no hope of winning if they admit the facts.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And it could be so much worse.

The highest probability and the consensus amongst most economic forecasters, and 90% of economists polled on the matter, is that it would be materially worse.

Now I'll accept that there is uncertainty around exactly how much worse, that's the bit that 'nobody knows', but that it would in fact be significantly worse for most people is really beyond doubt.

Where the Brexit camp have been very successful is in lying to the public and offering them false hope.

Because just like with the Scottish indyref they have no hope of winning if they admit the facts.

on the subject of lying to the public

how many of your own posts which say the government is remiss on not providing more public facilities for the relentless increase in population , actually mention that this costs money and you think that income tax should rise to pay for it: lets say start at 5p in the pound extra migration infrastructure tax.

wymondham

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And it could be so much worse.

The highest probability and the consensus amongst most economic forecasters, and 90% of economists polled on the matter, is that it would be materially worse.

Now I'll accept that there is uncertainty around exactly how much worse, that's the bit that 'nobody knows', but that it would in fact be significantly worse for most people is really beyond doubt.

Where the Brexit camp have been very successful is in lying to the public and offering them false hope.

Because just like with the Scottish indyref they have no hope of winning if they admit the facts.

indeed it could.... but it might not be half as bad as people predict - you can't say that people will be significantly worse off without doubt as nobody knows (its pretty much all guess work) ... both sides are very passionate about their views which is nice for a change... both sides push their views and believe them to be absolutely right... I feel as passionately as you obviously do!

You mention the Brexit camp lie, but the Remain camp are not without fault, peddling fear about how much you'll loose, how much it will cost you, how poor you'll be - always about the finance. They never touch on pretty much any other aspect, when there is so much more that people find important.

I personally have difficulty voting to stay in a system where I can't vote out those in charge - this is anti-democratic. Without our democratic right we have very little else... I know we discussed this before, but the reality is that it can't be done.

I find DC to be very unpatriotic by talking Britain down and happy to keep handing power he should have and be using for the benefit of his own country to Brussels.

BobQ

Cameron on Marr

Voting means leaving the single market and a smaller economy.

We could negotiate on retaining access to single market but this means not being able to afford to deliver the promises of Leave to spend billions on the NHS etc.

I will remain whatever the result and will implement the views of the public.

Voting out heralds a "lost decade" while the mess and trade deals are sorted out.

A "lost decade" in which we focus on leaving the EU and the consequences just about sums it up for me. A Conservative inspired crisis where the uniformed vote on a gut feeling as to which politicians tell the fewest lies or whatever prejudices they believe in.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

wymondham wrote: »

I personally have difficulty voting to stay in a system where I can't vote out those in charge - this is anti-democratic.

So you can vote out the house of lords then?

I find DC to be very unpatriotic by talking Britain down

It's not "talking Britain down" to acknowledge that we are better off having the best of both worlds as we do today - membership in the Worlds biggest single market as well as the ability to successfully trade with other countries.

and happy to keep handing power he should have and be using for the benefit of his own country to Brussels.

This is just complete nonsense.

All parties have agreed that any further treaty which transfers power to Brussels will be subject to a UK referendum.

And we've negotiated exemption to 'ever closer union' anyway.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

wymondham wrote: »

the Remain camp are not without fault, peddling fear about how much you'll loose, how much it will cost you, how poor you'll be - always about the finance..

Without the finance to pay for it nothing else matters.

The finance really matters to people's lives, if you're on benefits and Brexit results in even deeper cuts to UK spending then you're going to get hurt, if you lose your job to a Brexit DIY recession then you're going to get hurt, if growth slows and we have to cut pension spending or raise taxes then you're going to get hurt, and if your business closes thanks to trade with Europe decreasing then you're going to get hurt.

These risks are very real, they're very serious, they will affect millions of people, and most experts think they're the probable outcome.

The only thing the experts disagree on is the scale of the effect.

But it's no bl00dy comfort for most people in society if the job losses to a DIY recession are only half a million instead of a million for example.

It will still be completely devastating for masses of people who lose jobs, homes or businesses.

That's why there is real anger at some of the lies the Brexiteers are peddling - people like Boris and Gove know full well this is the probable outcome and don't care.

Their vision of a right wing state with spending slashed and them in power trumps the impact on ordinary people so they lie and mislead to get the votes they need.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Without the finance to pay for it nothing else matters.

The finance really matters to people's lives, if you're on benefits and Brexit results in even deeper cuts to UK spending then you're going to get hurt, if you lose your job to a Brexit DIY recession then you're going to get hurt, if growth slows and we have to cut pension spending or raise taxes then you're going to get hurt, and if your business closes thanks to trade with Europe decreasing then you're going to get hurt.

These risks are very real, they're very serious, they will affect millions of people, and most experts think they're the probable outcome.

The only thing the experts disagree on is the scale of the effect.

But it's no bl00dy comfort for most people in society if the job losses to a DIY recession are only half a million instead of a million for example.

It will still be completely devastating for masses of people who lose jobs, homes or businesses.

That's why there is real anger at some of the lies the Brexiteers are peddling - people like Boris and Gove know full well this is the probable outcome and don't care.

Their vision of a right wing state with spending slashed and them in power trumps the impact on ordinary people so they lie and mislead to get the votes they need.

We will be stronger and richer in the future and we will have greater democratic control of our country.

It is possible (but not certain) that there will be temporary unemployment just as there has been throughout the period when we have been blessed by being in the EU).
We will then be free to trade with the rest of the world without EU tariffs and without the huge delays in making trade agreements.

Investing for the future is not a new concept and yes as always it means delayed consumption now for better returns in the future.

Moby

wymondham wrote: »

Become patriotic again, believe in our self rather than assume we can't survive etc etc...

I already believe in myself and I like being part of a bigger union. It's the way to go......leave the 'patriotism' to the thugs in Marseilles!

LHW99

Hamish - An elected House of Lords is fine - as long as you don't mind similar fights to those in the US when the upper house prevents the lower house legislation bsing passed effectively.
The Lords should be reduced in size, and possibly members (or a proportion) appointed from a wide range of party backgrounds rotationally. But fully elected - probably not

Thrugelmir

mwpt wrote: »

The entire point is that a vote to remain is a vote to continue with a system which has seen the UK grow wealthier over the last several generations.

The UK is burdened with a high level of personal debt amongst other issues. But don't let that fog your view. Wealth transfer to the few has increased in Europe as a whole to the detriment of the majority.