Brexit - Economic impact?

mwpt

wymondham wrote: »

I think in a nutshell if we Brexit we'll take a hit in the short term, but in the long term I think Britain could be reborn. With the right leaders we could be a proud nation again

Weird. So Britain is not a proud nation at the moment? What are you looking for in real practical terms which will make Britain a proud nation again? If you say "democracy" please state exactly what changes you think the new new democracy will bring that will be visible to everyone that will transform us from a not proud nation to a proud nation.

Which exact period from our history are you hoping to emulate by the "again" part?

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

That seems entirely untrue to me. The entire point is that a vote to remain is a vote to continue with a system which has seen the UK grow wealthier over the last several generations. The point of stating possibilities after brexit is because the leave camp have absolutely no idea what our country will look like if we leave. I do not understand what you people are voting for if you vote leave. Everyone seems to want something different. Are you going to blame lack of democracy when the next government continues letting in exactly the same amount of immigration as previous governments?

if people vote for MPs who vote to let in 600,000 per annum then so beit: that will be democracy
otherwise they will be vote for people who will let in less

Rinoa

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The shift in polling data after the onslaught of false media scare stories about Turkey joining the EU would seem to disprove your claim.

Not sure they were false. Just watch what Dave has to say about Turkey and others joining the EU.


https://youtu.be/4e6JC5AcCZM?t=40

westernpromise

The likeliest adverse impact of Brexit would be a collapse in the pound and jump in inflation due to the rising cost of imports; this is the only scenario I can see in which interest rates would go up, i.e. to curtail that inflation, which although painful for many would be beneficial for many others.

Generali

Rinoa wrote: »

£/euro rate same as one month ago, and £ actually higher than 2 months ago.

Next.



People have to buy food, they don't have to buy £65Bn of UK assets unless they believe they're damn good value.

The most likely trade to hedge a Brexit is to buy US Treasuries.

The consensus among asset managers is that Brexit would be highly negative for Sterling-denominated assets so it's reasonable to assume that a Brexit vote would cause Sterling-denominated assets to drop in price substantially in the first instance.
Dave is.

wymondham

Mistermeaner wrote: »

Proud nation? !!!!!! is that?

Become patriotic again, believe in our self rather than assume we can't survive etc etc...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

wymondham wrote: »

Become patriotic again, believe in our self rather than assume we can't survive etc etc...

Eh?

Nobody assumes we can't survive outside the EU. Of course we could. But there's a big difference between surviving and thriving.

The patriotic thing to do is to Remain in the EU and continue our position as a world leading economy and highly influential nation, prospering from all the benefits of EU membership, while also being a leader in global diplomacy and trade.

Exactly as we do today.

wymondham

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Everyone in favour of Brexit seems to have this great belief in what Britain could do after we exit - as if exiting would be some form of panacea for all that ails us

Who knows? nobody does... it could be so much better...

I think this is new found optimism and a chance to effect real change... sure its different and lots are unknown, but I'd rather have change than more or what we currently have.. The EU has proven that it can't reform and probably never will - if we stay in we will be listen to even less that's for sure so things will get a lot more frustrating...

I think its worth the risk and for one am looking forward to the vote, it will be interesting if the voting public is thinking about finance only (as all politicians are), or if they will be thinking about stuff that's much more important such as quality of life/identity in the long term..?

Its really interesting how peoples view on this are different, very refreshing! The beauty on this debate is nobody is right or wrong because nobody can predict what occurs after the vote. We won't even know if we made the right choice as we'll have nothing to compare it to!

My hunch is hard times are coming either way, and if we vote out that will be the 'cause', if we vote in then that will be reasons out of our control again...

I'm very interested that both DC and GO always say a 'reformed' EU when discussing the EU now. Giving themselves a way out if the vote does not go their way?

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

That seems entirely untrue to me. The entire point is that a vote to remain is a vote to continue with a system which has seen the UK grow wealthier over the last several generations. The point of stating possibilities after brexit is because the leave camp have absolutely no idea what our country will look like if we leave. I do not understand what you people are voting for if you vote leave. Everyone seems to want something different. Are you going to blame lack of democracy when the next government continues letting in exactly the same amount of immigration as previous governments?

if you genuinely don't know what people are voting for then I'm amazed you are critical of it.

but let me tell you
- people want a more direct and accountable democratic control over their lives
- people what to vote to kick out unpopular policies without being told it is 'impossible' because it needs the agreement of 27 other head of state plus votes in their local parliaments and the EU parliament : give a good wind lets say 5 years for a decision)
-one of those things is to regain control of the numbers of immigrants that can come into the country.
-many dislike other specific policies too but there would anyway be disagreement upon those anyway

Going4TheDream

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Most likely.

But that doesn't change the fact that the DIY Brexit Recession is avoidable by simply not Brexiting.

This is a bit like the QI question, where in reality 'Nobody knows' .