Brexit - Economic impact?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Looming Sterling Crisis?

"Demand for protection against sharp Sterling drop at record levels in options markets"

https://twitter.com/faisalislam

Money being withdrawn from the UK already....

Capital Flight

In the six months to the end of April, some £77bn left the sterling system. That compares to a fall of just £2bn in the six months to the end of October 2015.

http://news.sky.com/story/1708390/eu-osborne-warning-over-capital-flight-cost

Exchange rate chaos likely...

What happens to the Sterling if the UK votes for “Brexit”? The short answer seems obvious—the GBP will fall. By how much? This question is substantially more complicated, but current FX Options prices suggest anywhere between 4-7 percent in one fell swoop.

The ensuing uncertainty would almost certainly produce shockwaves beyond Britain’s shores and onto broader global financial markets, and modeling every possibility seems nearly impossible.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/gbp/2016/06/11/British-Pound-Braces-for-Massive-Volatility-in-Two-Weeks-Ahead-tofDR.html

Insurance companies warn of massive job losses....

Brexit poses a grave threat to London’s insurance jobs and businesses. Job losses are highly likely among the 34,000 people employed directly in the city’s commercial insurance sector. Further job losses are likely among the tens of thousands indirectly employed. Underwriting companies are already making contingency plans to move elsewhere if Britain votes to leave the EU. Foreign capital is likely to leave for more trade friendly jurisdictions.

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2016/06/03/410789.htm

Interesting times....

wymondham

I keep seeing various reports of crisis if we leave/small ripples etc... I don't think anyone really knows, but things never tend to be as bad as predictions I find..... the remain camp are afraid of change and the leave camp are afraid of no change....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

wymondham wrote: »

things never tend to be as bad as predictions I find.....

True.

Sometimes, as with 2008, they're actually much worse.:money:

Rinoa

Why not post in existing thread?

Either way, if £65Bn of currency or assets has been offloaded, then clearly the buyers believe they've got themselves a great deal.

The headline could have read "Buyers buy record amounts of UK currency and assets."

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Market fears over the UK’s potential exit from Europe are driving up food and drink costs, warns buying specialist Lynx Purchasing.

http://www.foodnavigator.com/Market-Trends/Fears-over-Brexit-driving-up-food-and-drink-prices

And....

the food market is violently reacting to a possible British exit and food and drink prices are escalating,

The possibility of Brexit becoming a reality is having a multifarious destabilizing effect. The value of British pound has dropped against both the euro and the US dollar, which has caused the price of fresh produce to rise and unsettle the markets

https://munchies.vice.com/en/articles/brexit-woes-are-causing-uk-food-prices-to-surge

Of course Rinoa would have you believe it's all good because someone bought the food at inflated prices, therefore the "buyers believe they got a great deal".

Graham_Devon

There's one thing I do know.

The desperation index is certainly showing a huge spike.

Rinoa

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://www.foodnavigator.com/Market-Trends/Fears-over-Brexit-driving-up-food-and-drink-prices

And....


https://munchies.vice.com/en/articles/brexit-woes-are-causing-uk-food-prices-to-surge

Of course Rinoa would have you believe it's all good because someone bought the food at inflated prices, therefore the "buyers believe they got a great deal".

£/euro rate same as one month ago, and £ actually higher than 2 months ago.

Next.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Of course Rinoa would have you believe it's all good because someone bought the food at inflated prices, therefore the "buyers believe they got a great deal".

People have to buy food, they don't have to buy £65Bn of UK assets unless they believe they're damn good value.

bravotango

As people have said no one really knows what will actually happen if BREXIT is voted in. It's all "hypothetical", but the remain compaign won't admit to this.

I have to admit that I'm still stuck in two minds as to which to vote for, as all the TV debates tend to go into launching personal attacks, or saying one political party is better than the other. To be honest they aren't actually helping the general public, just an excuse to have a go at each other

Also, getting Tony Blair shown to be supporting the remain campaign may actually be a bad PR exercise, as it could back fire quite badly.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Looming Sterling Crisis?


https://twitter.com/faisalislam

Money being withdrawn from the UK already....


http://news.sky.com/story/1708390/eu-osborne-warning-over-capital-flight-cost

Exchange rate chaos likely...

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/gbp/2016/06/11/British-Pound-Braces-for-Massive-Volatility-in-Two-Weeks-Ahead-tofDR.html

Insurance companies warn of massive job losses....

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2016/06/03/410789.htm

Interesting times....

just love the way you quote faisal islam given your long term admiration of his economic forecasting

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

No rational person would ever enter a lottery where the maximum prize on offer is a few pence an hour on the wages of a fifth of entrants, but 1 in every 20 will lose their job, and 1 in every 50 will lose their house in the DIY Recession that will follow the lottery.

Yet that's exactly what the leave camp are offering.

If the latest polls are accurate I can only conclude around half of Britain are either deeply irrational or closet masochists.

mrginge

Incredible how such a small, insignificant country with no ability to exist independently of the EU can cause such chaos around the worlds financial markets.

Someone should have warned the EU that they were risking such a disaster by not being more accommodating to their member's requests.