Shouldnt the "Remain" vote be winning by a landslide??

Johnsmith2016

Nevermind then

angrypirate

BobQ wrote: »

If the case for leaving is so compelling, why is it that the Leave campaign is not winning the argument.

We are a divided nation. The leave side are largely voting against the evidence. They do not care about the short term damage to the economy or whether in the long term we will be poorer to a small degree. They want out whatever the cost. The remain side are driven by the economic case for remaining, they do not want the uncertainty of leaving, they recognise that a larger market has more clout. Issues of sovereignty and out world leadership role are seen as unimportant. I cannot see this changing much.

It is impossible to look back on what life was like pre-EU without looking at what has changed in the world since. I can look back to those days. But I see the modern world as more inter dependent. The US could be isolationist but chooses to build trading alliances in North America, Trans Pacific and with the EU. I think young people generally get this. The older generation hanker after a past to which we will never return.

I recall the pre-EU days, when we were proud that we could not speak another language, when we had to get visas to go to many countries on holiday, when a significant proportion of Britain had racist tendencies or were openly racist, when before EU competition rules a weekend in Lisbon was an expensive undertaking, passport control in France was about the same as visiting Turkey or Israel, strict customs lists (1lt spirts etc), sending a letter to Germany required a customs declaration and extra postage, etc.

When I go to most EU nations now I think of it as much like home.

Evidence? Im yet to see any real evidence from either side.

TrickyTree83

Concerned75 wrote: »

Depends where you are in life also. If you have a home, no dependants and no big money worries, you're likely to vote remain. Struggling for permanent work, getting your foot on the property ladder or have health issues and trying to get your children into a school, you might be voting leave.
I think the majority of the British voting population has at least one issue of the latter points to leave.
Big business not being able to take advantage of tax breaks and other financial "perks" are probably at the bottom of their list of priorities.
Most people care about what is effecting their immediate day to day lives around them.
I fear as June draws closer, the leave campaign may just widen that gap of 50/50.

I fit that exact criteria and I'm voting to leave.

My wife is a Ukrainian national and so had to go through many visa applications burning through a lot of money (£thousands) to achieve indefinite leave to remain. She's qualified for citizenship but that's another £1000+. Why should she have to go through that as my wife yet criminals from the EU can roam around as they please?

So whilst my wife is a migrant and the people she works with are also migrants, both from EU and non-EU, they all believe we should vote to leave. They believe the situation on the continent has descended into farce. Some of the Latvian contingent say the EU has decimated their manufacturing and that many factories have closed. They would very much like to leave but are not given the opportunity.

Some of my reasons for voting to leave:

1. I agree with the migration crisis being a cause for great concern.
2. I believe the increase in the minimum wage will be a greater pull on migration to the UK resulting in an increasing population to service and falling (in real terms at least) public funding to these services.
3. The way the EU works for us regarding manufacturing, energy, fishing is detrimental to our economy not beneficial.
4. The ISDS clause in the TTIP agreement the EU is attempting to sign up to is probably the issue that tipped me over the edge from recognising that the EU does have some good points to absolutely voting to leave. If we were to join TTIP and be subjected to ISDS then we're going to be exposed to the claim culture of US industry and it will further undermine our democracy.

BobQ

angrypirate wrote: »

Evidence? Im yet to see any real evidence from either side.

Evidence takes many forms but it is more useful than blind faith.

I was referring to the economic modelling by various academic studies and by HM Treasury itself. I accept no modelling is necessarily correct but they are useful in explaining the likely impact of leaving. Leave of course does not provide any similar evidence to contradict this modelling.

My point, however, is that Remain is largely driven by the perceived economic impact (they believe this evidence if you like). Leave wants to exit due to various more emotional reasons as far as I can see.

Conrad

Far right on the rise across the EU;

• The Danish People’s party’s success in the election continues a trend of rising support for rightwing parties across Finland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway
  
  http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2015/jun/19/rightwing-anti-immigration-parties-nordic-countries-denmark-sweden-finland-norway
  
  
  

• A far-right, anti-refugee party has won a landslide in Poland
  
  http://www.thejournal.ie/poland-elections-2409911-Oct2015/
• 9 Scariest Far-Right Parties Now In The European Parliament
  
  http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/26/far-right-europe-election_n_5391873.html
• Austrian far-right party wins first round of presidential vote
  
  http://www.france24.com/en/20160424-far-right-candidate-comes-first-austria-presidential-vote-norbert-hofer
• Slovakia far right party election success shock
  
  http://www.reuters.com/article/us-slovakia-election-rightwing-idUSKCN0W80UB
• Hungary – far right gains ground
  
  http://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/orban-wins-elections-far-right-gains-ground/
• Front National wins in France
  
  http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/12/marine-le-pen-front-national-france/420348/

Conrad

BobQ wrote: »

My point, however, is that Remain is largely driven by the perceived economic impact (they believe this evidence if you like). Leave wants to exit due to various more emotional reasons as far as I can see.

1. We want to build tailor made trade deals with the world, something for which one needs a little courage and vision, however the evidence is all around us too, for example little Iceland, NZ and Switzerland have trade deals with China, something the EU made of 28 nations with disparate needs has failed on
2. Risks of staying in - great Banking and economic risk from Greece, Italy, Portugal and others - could drag us down and cost us dear
3. No chance of reducing immigration, every chance it will go up and up if we remain

That'll do for now.
Bob you have a mind filter on so you keep dismissing remain arguments.


I love your 168 month modelling, I mean what could go wrong, lol, utterly infantile logic.
The IMF makes one bad prediction after another and yet people like you just keep on bending over for more of the same. THIS ISN'T EVIENCE, IT'S BLIND FAITH

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

but how come 8 of the other EU nations are higher than us.

The UK plays with property rather than generating real wealth by investing in productive assets.

BobQ

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

My wife is a Ukrainian national and so had to go through many visa applications burning through a lot of money (£thousands) to achieve indefinite leave to remain. She's qualified for citizenship but that's another £1000+. Why should she have to go through that as my wife yet criminals from the EU can roam around as they please?

Do you believe that those who wish to leave would favour granting your wife UK citizenship. I suspect many would want her shipped back to the Ukraine.

4. The ISDS clause in the TTIP agreement the EU is attempting to sign up to is probably the issue that tipped me over the edge from recognising that the EU does have some good points to absolutely voting to leave. If we were to join TTIP and be subjected to ISDS then we're going to be exposed to the claim culture of US industry and it will further undermine our democracy

.

Less than two years ago Boris Johnson said that people who opposed TTIP were Numskulls. Opposing TTIP is cause we can agree on and EU is still negotiating on. But be in no doubt that if we leave it is the sort of agreement that the Conservatives will seek with the US. Of course now it is a convenient thing to promote the Leave campaign. You seem to be falling for it!

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/10/20/boris-johnson-ttip_n_6012958.html

Horseygirl123

BobQ wrote: »

Why do you think that the NHS has been decimated? How do immigrants who pay in cause the problem?

A Polish colleague brought his mother over for her second knee replacement on the NHS. Now she's had all her physio she's gone back home. He thinks the NHS is wonderful, we were gobsmacked.

jimibaboza

[*]We want to build tailor made trade deals with the world, something for which one needs a little courage and vision, however the evidence is all around us too, for example little Iceland, NZ and Switzerland have trade deals with China, something the EU made of 28 nations with disparate needs has failed on

The EU is China's largest trading partner, A separate Britain would be out of the top 10. How would becoming a more junior partner help it? China certainly are not going to risk annoying it's top buyers by giving better terms to the UK.

[*]Risks of staying in - great Banking and economic risk from Greece, Italy, Portugal and others - could drag us down and cost us dear

In what way? Most of the risk is borne by the banks, and this risk will not go away should Britain leave.

[*]No chance of reducing immigration, every chance it will go up and up if we remain

How does anyone propose immigration be stopped after leaving? The massive camp in Calais should be an indication that people won't stop coming here just because because it isn't allowed (it already isn't). In fact Britain leaving will just mean that the French will have no incentive to keep them in France and just send them on their way to the UK. And all it would take is a child getting hurt trying to get here for the media to scream at the government to let them all in.