EU Brexit impact - Treasury Analysis

cells

michaels wrote: »

16% came from the article surrounding the graph. Re the rest of your post, you agree with me that given 'everything else' that might happen in the period to different sectors of the economy, a six percent difference in GDP (total not per head) by 2030 would be noticeable but not world changing.

i think you should separate the two. There is no need to link it to an out vote

Would a one time 6% crash in GDP for whatever reason be a negative? yes it would be a very bad negative. Would the world end no but its not nice having a 6% income cut

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So what's the concrete plan for the UK if we vote leave?

Errm, a prospering autonomous nation that trades globally and enjoys her own seat at all the global rule setting bodies, as is the case with other independent prosperous nations. The EU absolutely relies on our world leading intelligence gathering, our 5 Eyes intelligent, our nuclear umbrella, let alone flogs us a huge amount more than we do it. Of course the EU will rapidly cut a good deal, don't be so damned small minded man. Even if it didn't (which it will) cut us a deal, the trade tarrif benefits are fairly marginal anyway, in this ever more globalised world.


But one small example - our deep links and shared vision within The Commonwealth, which we currently cannot enjoy the full fruits of thanks to EU intervention. Commonwealth nations would love to cut a deal with Britannia, great for them and us


Can you point to medium sized prospering independent nations that feel impotent in terms of trade and influence, desperate to join a federal pact?

wymondham

mwpt wrote: »

What are the real problems around them, that are actually caused by Europe? Stop and think about this a little carefully. Remember to factor in that EU immigrants are net contributors to our tax purse, not net takers. Remember that their are EU laws which don't make headlines that silently protect your workers rights, your way of life, allow cheaper food, cheaper travel, etc.

The main issue is too many people and too few resources. Schools/NHS/Doctors/Housing etc.. when you have a problem it does not make sense to make the problem worse (ie have more people). The Government are not going to give the issue more resources, so the numbers need to stop going up.

I don't know anyone (real people) who honestly thinks more EU immigration is a good thing, no matter how many times they are told in the news/radio or however many graphs people are shown

mwpt

Conrad wrote: »

Describe your vision of the SE in 2100. I know you wont be around, but that would be a non-argument of course.

I hope I am around because of longevity improvements. My vision would be for London to maintain it's green spaces and build upward in more elegant ways. By 2100 I don't expect we'll be arguing over road congestion much since AI will be driving or flying us around. I expect people will have much better options to live further out of the capital and very quickly commute in, if this is their preference. I also expect that way before that stage there would have been a significant change in economies such that most of the world is better off and not so many people are looking to move to the South East of England.

cells

the UK from say ~1500 onwards has been a big net exporter of immigrants and their children.

some 50 million Americans and Australians think they are the descendants of Brits plus lots in other countries

With no migration the UK may today have been over 100 million souls.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

I hope I am around because of longevity improvements. My vision would be for London to maintain it's green spaces and build upward in more elegant ways. By 2100 I don't expect we'll be arguing over road congestion much since AI will be driving or flying us around. I expect people will have much better options to live further out of the capital and very quickly commute in, if this is their preference. I also expect that way before that stage there would have been a significant change in economies such that most of the world is better off and not so many people are looking to move to the South East of England.

with a vision like that we should leave the EU immediately without any concern for the future prosperity.

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

with a vision like that we should leave the EU immediately without any concern for the future prosperity.

Your post is short on details.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

Errm,

I know, it must be tough to answer such a simple series of questions, given that none of the vote leave leaders even agree on the answers....

But lets try again anyway...

What's the concrete plan for the UK if we vote leave?

How many immigrants per year?

What will our trading terms be?

How many jobs will we gain or lose?

Which other countries have said they'd prefer us to leave the EU and are willing to enter into better trading arrangements with us if we do?

And where can I read all about the details that have been agreed amongst the various leave factions?

Conrad

November 9th 2015;


“I am not saying for one moment that Britain couldn’t survive outside the European Union. Of course we could. We are a great country".

“The fifth largest economy in the world. The fastest growing economy in the G7 last year. The biggest destination for Foreign Direct Investment in the EU. Our capital city a global icon. The world, literally, speaks our language".






D Cameron.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So what's the concrete plan for the UK if we vote leave?

How many immigrants per year?

zero plus or minus sufficient to meet any 'essential ; needs

What will our trading terms be?

they will be determined by a country by country basis depending upon the circumstance ; so simple solutions for simple issues

How many jobs will we gain or lose?

we will maintain full employment

Which other countries have said they'd prefer us to leave the EU and are willing to enter into better trading arrangements with us if we do?

countries have 'interested' and will respond to changing situations as appropriate, just like they have been doing for a thousand years

And where can I read all about the details that have been agreed amongst the various leave factions?

You of course, live in a 'country' with a Putin like single party state; in the rest of the UK, a reasonable although incomplete sort of democracy prevails: the future path of brexit depends upon the voters of the UK and who they choose to elect.