EU Brexit impact - Treasury Analysis

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

British voters will be forced to pay 8p more in income tax on every pound earned if the country leaves the European Union, the Treasury has warned.

The county would be left with a £36 billion financial black hole by 2030 because of the economic hit from pulling out of the EU, a new analysis has claimed.
.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/18/brexit-would-cost-every-family-4300-a-year-treasury-forecasts/

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

because the price of food on the international market is cheaper than that produced by the EU

You can already buy food on the international market.

Nothing stopping you from doing so...

Rinoa

Vote Leave:

• The £4,300 figure is based on the Government breaking its promise to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands.
• If there were 6% fewer households than are currently predicted for 2030 due to lower net migration, there would be no reduction in household income at all (even assuming the Treasury are right that GDP would be 6.2% smaller in 2030 than it otherwise might have been).
• The report fails to take account of savings from cutting the cost of EU regulation if we Vote Leave, which the Treasury has previously admitted are as high as 7% of GDP, or £4,638 per household.
• The Government calculates its £4,300 figure by dividing a putative 6.2% lesser increase in GDP by 2030 by the current number of households – this is just another example of the Government using dodgy numbers.
• The report downplays or ignores other benefits of leaving the EU, including striking free trade agreements with major emerging economies and cutting the UK’s budget contributions.
• At no point does the report state that the UK economy will contract if we Vote Leave. The Treasury report admits that the UK will grow if it strikes a free trade deal with the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/18/brexit-would-cost-every-family-4300-a-year-treasury-forecasts/

BobQ

wymondham wrote: »

The remain camp seems to focus too much on the financial side of things - relying on big institutions to follow rank and speak out. The finance side, although important to Ministers, isn't as important to the public who see the real problems around them.... this will be an interesting lead up indeed as the remain camp will become increasingly disconnected if they don't change tactic.

There has been a lot of credible evidence that leaving will have adverse consequences on the UK economy. International experts, business experts and now the Treasury experts.

Instead of moaning about these experts being wrong, why do the leave campaigners not publish their evidence?

BobQ

westernpromise wrote: »

1/ the people saying this stuff and supporting Remain are, by and large, the same people who said we needed to join the Euro and before that the ERM.

.

I suspect many of those credible experts will have retired by now.

Rinoa

BobQ wrote: »

There has been a lot of credible evidence that leaving will have adverse consequences on the UK economy. International experts, business experts and now the Treasury experts.

Instead of moaning about these experts being wrong, why do the leave campaigners not publish their evidence?

That's very easy. Just look around the world at any number of independent countries who positively thrive without EU membership.

Japan exports £55Bn to the EU. They don't have any free trade agreement, do not pass EU regulations through their parliament, do not accept free movement of EU citizens and pay zero contributions for access to our markets.

Miss_Samantha

CLAPTON wrote: »

because the price of food on the international market is cheaper than that produced by the EU

That's what I already implied in my previous comment. However this is not my question.

Why do you think that if British farmers are undercut food prices will be cheaper for consumers?

You seem to think that it is fine to sacrifice all our industries as long as we can buy cheaper abroad.
Well, I believe that thinking that we can all work in finance as gone out of fashion...

BobQ

]Now the National Farmers Union is supporting Remain. Based on EVIDENCE
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/18/british-farmers-uk-eu-nfu-brexit-farming

The National Farmers’ Union, which represents farmers across England and Wales, said it would not be actively campaigning in the EU referendum and would not tell its 55,000 members how to vote.

But a resolution passed by the NFU council said: “On the balance of existing evidence available to us at present, the interests of farmers are best served by our continuing membership of the European Union.”

The decision comes after the NFU commissioned a report on the impacts of Brexit on far

The report by Wageningen University in the Netherlands found that in two of three scenarios farm-gate prices could increase, bolstering farming incomes but reducing consumption of products as they become more expensive.

In the third, a more liberalised trade approach would see farm-gate prices fall, benefiting consumers through lower prices but hitting farmers’ incomes in many sectors.

CLAPTON

Miss_Samantha wrote: »

That's what I already implied in my previous comment. However this is not my question.

Why do you think that if British farmers are undercut food prices will be cheaper for consumers?

You seem to think that it is fine to sacrifice all our industries as long as we can buy cheaper abroad.
Well, I believe that thinking that we can all work in finance as gone out of fashion...

the purpose of trade is to take advantage for mutual benefit of each traders relative skills/geography/economies of scale etc

we have to export goods and services where we have advantage and import where others are cheaper
that way we are all better off.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You can already buy food on the international market.

Nothing stopping you from doing so...

so there is no import restrictions/tariffs on farmer products entering the EU?