EU Brexit impact - Treasury Analysis

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I know, it must be tough to answer such a simple series of questions, given that none of the vote leave leaders even agree on the answers....

But lets try again anyway...

What's the concrete plan for the UK if we vote leave?

How many immigrants per year?


What will our trading terms be?

How many jobs will we gain or lose?

Which other countries have said they'd prefer us to leave the EU and are willing to enter into better trading arrangements with us if we do?

And where can I read all about the details that have been agreed amongst the various leave factions?

How many houses will we need to build for the next 10 yrs EU migrants, and the next 20 yrs?


How many schools will we need?



What happens if Southern Europe goes into the mire?


How many immigrants will come from Turkey and possibly Ukraine? Will those nations join the club?


How many jobs will be gain or loose?


How many EU migrants will come in the next 10 years?


How many houses will they need?


How many migrants that have gone to Germany and France will later come here?


How much business will we lose by not being free to trade as we see fit, using tailor made trade deals with the rest of the world?


Which countries have said they will officially refuse a future trading deal with Britain?


Which EU corridor migrants are terrorists?


When did you loose your bottle?

antrobus

Conrad wrote: »

Does it indeed...... just imagine a UK trade deal with the EU, ......

It would still not be the same as having access to the single market.

Conrad wrote: »

...given far less important Canada got a very good deal and NO free movement obligation; ....

There are free movement obligations in CETA. There are in most trade deals these days.

antrobus

Conrad wrote: »

In what way was ignoring the will of the Greek people NOT a dilution of democracy?

The only people who ignored the will of the Greek people were the Greek government. They held a referendum, then ignored the result, and did the exact opposite.

Alan_Brown

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So what's the concrete plan for the UK if we vote leave?

How many immigrants per year?

What will our trading terms be?

How many jobs will we gain or lose?

Which other countries have said they'd prefer us to leave the EU and are willing to enter into better trading arrangements with us if we do?

And where can I read all about the details that have been agreed amongst the various leave factions?

You could ask some of those questions whether we stay or leave.

What helped to make my mind up about voting to leave the EU was an analysis of football.

If we leave the EU then a lot of EU players will have to leave the Premier and Football leagues because they do not meet the criteria applied for players extant to the EU. The vast majority of EU players have not played sufficient games at national level and are therefore not classed as exceptional/world class football players, and would not qualify to work here. Instead of employing second rate, cheaper EU footballers, the clubs would have to either employ real world class foreign players or invest more in their homegrown academy players (probably they would have to do both). This investment in home-grown players would reduce youth unemployment and help the development of the British National teams.

Looking at the wider UK economy, the same would be true of all industries. Instead of cheaper construction staff from Eastern Europe, firms would be forced to employ UK staff. Youth unemployment would fall as the building companies start investing in apprenticeships again.

Employers will no longer have the choice of employing late 20's/early 30 year old cheap time-served staff who have worked through apprentice schemes in Poland rather than spending their own money putting staff through their own training schemes. We have such high youth unemployment in the UK because much older and experienced people from Eastern Europe are willing to work for the wages we would normally pay to inexperienced teens.

Alan_Brown

antrobus wrote: »

The only people who ignored the will of the Greek people were the Greek government. They held a referendum, then ignored the result, and did the exact opposite.

They had no choice, they were bullied into it with the thread of the EU/IMF destroying (what remained of) the Greek economy.

Conrad

UK Farmers always say Brits wont pick cabbages, oh but they will, if the pay is fair and not kept hideously low by cheap Romanians. It's amazing this country ever fed itself prior to mass migration!


Alan Brown is right on apprenticeships - UK employers used to invest in on-the-job training and will do once more if their limitless cheap labour supply is cut-off. We have 1.5 million unemployed that should be working and with a little imagination many of them can be

mwpt

Alan_Brown wrote: »

They had no choice, they were bullied into it with the thread of the EU/IMF destroying (what remained of) the Greek economy.

This is rubbish, for anyone who is reading. Since AB didn't provide more than a nonsense assertion, I don't need to really explain again why it is rubbish.

mwpt

Conrad wrote: »

UK Farmers always say Brits wont pick cabbages, oh but they will, if the pay is fair and not kept hideously low by cheap Romanians. It's amazing this country ever fed itself prior to mass migration!

So you're in favour of unions for collective labour bargaining power? I never saw you as the sort actually.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

So you're in favour of unions for collective labour bargaining power? I never saw you as the sort actually.

the alternative to unlimited immigration is not trade unions.

Conrad

mwpt wrote: »

So you're in favour of unions for collective labour bargaining power?


.

No sweetie, I'm in favour of farmers having to pay a fair days pay in the absence of resorting to a tidal wave of cheap imported labour, you know, like they used to


And yes food prices could rise, but given most of eat far too much, it will be a blessing in disguise