EU Brexit impact - Treasury Analysis

mayonnaise

Alan_Brown wrote: »

There are 50 countries that that have free trade with the EU and pay no membership fees.

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/november/tradoc_150129.pdf

There are indeed many countries outside the EU that have free trade or preferential trade agreements with the EU.
All the more reason to stay in the EU and reap the rewards of these agreements.

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

There are indeed many countries outside the EU that have free trade or preferential trade agreements with the EU.
All the more reason to stay in the EU and reap the rewards of these agreements.

why would that be then?
what aspect of their relationship makes it better for us to to stay in

Alan_Brown

mayonnaise wrote: »

There are indeed many countries outside the EU that have free trade or preferential trade agreements with the EU.
All the more reason to stay in the EU and reap the rewards of these agreements.

All the better to save £9bn and arrange our own agreements that are more suited to the UK rather than a catch-all treaty.

A bespoke tailored suit is much better fitting than one off the peg.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Alan_Brown wrote: »

There are 50 countries that that have free trade with the EU and pay no membership fees.

None of which have full and unrestricted access to the Single Market.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Alan_Brown wrote: »

All the better to save £9bn and arrange our own agreements that are more suited to the UK rather than a catch-all treaty.

It is risible to suggest that the UK - an economy of 65m consumers, would get as good a deal as the EU - an economy of 500m consumers, when negotiating with other major economies around the World.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It is risible to suggest that the UK - an economy of 65m consumers, would get as good a deal as the EU - an economy of 500m consumers, when negotiating with other major economies around the World.

an opinion and not an objective fact

presumably you have dozens of examples where the EU has massively better deals than the other 160 odd countries round the world : should be really easy to prove.

Alan_Brown

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It is risible to suggest that the UK - an economy of 65m consumers, would get as good a deal as the EU - an economy of 500m consumers, when negotiating with other major economies around the World.

I rather suspect that many of the deals are aimed at the core economies of the UK, France, Germany than the southern and European countries. I'd also suggest that the deals give preference to trade that is more aligned to the engineering of Germany and the agriculture of France than to the finances and services of the UK.

Just as I feel local government best serves local people, national government best serves a nation, I believe that trade agreements between two distinct nations better serve both of those nations rather than a 'scattergun' treaty that tries to cover several nations with very different industries and economies.

mwpt

Alan_Brown wrote: »

That's about the size of it, except with the freedom of trade and the reduction of unregulated immigration, perhaps the ordinary man in the street will have better job prospects and higher wages.

I think that government is much better at a local level. I think devolution in Scotland, NI, Wales and now in regions of the UK is the best approach for those individual regions. The statement "Who better to decide what's best for Scotland, than the Scottish?" holds true for all of the devolved regions.

The same holds true at a National Level. "Who better to decide what's best for the UK, than the British?". Do the Austrians, Slovenians, Portuguese know what's best for the UK. Do they have the UK national interests at heart. Will the trade agreements negotiated by a conglomeration of these countries be the best trade agreement for the UK and UK businesses?

I believe that the more local the government, the greater the impact (both good and bad) and, importantly, the more you feel involved. An EU superstate with unelected leaders, based overseas does not make me feel involved.

Your analogy doesn't work though. Or rather, it doesn't seem to me to conclude what you think it concludes. The UK is devolved from the EU in more ways than Scotland is devolved from the UK, and so on. I could use the exact same argument to say, the UK is part of a European Union but certain powers are devolved to the UK while the EU retains other powers. This works for you on certain scales, but it seems you think it stops at the supra-national level.

I've answered a lot of your questions in this thread. Can you answer some of mine? What are the benefits to you personally of being in the EU?

I had to think really hard to come up with a potential downside of being in the EU and even then my link was tenuous at best. Much like you I think the Euro is a failed concept and has resulted in lower growth for the EU as a whole and because we are closely tied to the EU, has resulted in potential loss of investment in the UK. Who knows if this is actual fact, it was the closest I could get to a negative from remaining in the EU.

The direct negative impacts to me from a LEAVE vote: potential loss of workers rights as EU laws start to unwind and UK can impose whatever it likes. Potential loss of customers to tech firms resulting in many small tech businesses failing. I work in tech, I want my industry to grow so my job prospects are better. Potential move of tech startups out of London to locations in Europe (Berlin is competing hard). Potential problems with the finance industry due to being out of Europe resulting in loss of jobs. Potential loss of many more jobs as our economy contracts because a lot of firms invested here due to us being in the EU and potential influence. Lots of small import businesses failing due to lack of ease of import/export with the EU resulting in many items I buy being unavailable or more expensive. Potential loss of skills in certain areas resulting in contraction or bust of certain firms. Potential problems skilling up or getting people to work in certain jobs. Child care may become more expensive on top of the already absurd costs. I could go on and on. Inability to travel easily to all these fantastic countries on my doorstep. Inability to buy property in cheaper countries as a holiday destination. Inability to retire to a European country.

All of these are possibilities not certainties (so please don't start debating each point) and subject to huge speculation. But they are actual possibilities and I fail to see why I should vote to take a chance with all these negative possibilities in order to gain ... completely nothing, in your own words.

Alan_Brown

mwpt wrote: »

I had to think really hard to come up with a potential downside of being in the EU and even then my link was tenuous at best. Much like you I think the Euro is a failed concept and has resulted in lower growth for the EU as a whole and because we are closely tied to the EU, has resulted in potential loss of investment in the UK. Who knows if this is actual fact, it was the closest I could get to a negative from remaining in the EU.

Can you answer my question please?

What are the benefits to you personally of being in the EU?

Rinoa

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It is risible to suggest that the UK - an economy of 65m consumers, would get as good a deal as the EU - an economy of 500m consumers, when negotiating with other major economies around the World.

Well, the EU in it's various forms has been in existence for 60 years. Where's the free trade deal with the US, China, India?

In reality every EU country with an industry threatened by a specific trade deal veto's it. It will be far easier to conclude deals on our own.