EU Brexit impact - Treasury Analysis

cells

BobQ wrote: »

Why then did we import £40bn worth in 2014 and exported £19bn?

Most the food on a calorific basis that we eat is produced in the uk.

the reason why both the export and import figures are high is because there are exports/imports of foods that are expensive relative to their nutritional value. For example the UK imports nearly £1 billion of bottled water but I bet thats not what people think of when the talk about growing our own food or food security. Also the biggest export is whisky and the biggest import by far is wine (£4 billion of the stuff). Again those are not really a big nutritional part of the diet

you would need to forget food exports and imports in terms of £pounds and look at it in terms of calories imported and exported and when you do that its not far off 80% of calories consumed are produced in the uk.

BobQ

cells wrote: »

because that is the proceeded stuff. exporting or importing a hundred euro bottle of wine which isn't even a days calories isn't really what people mean by growing our own food

base foods are the cereals sugar oils etc which pretty much make up all the foods.

Most the food on a calorific basis that we eat is produced in the uk.
I think last time i read up about it it was in the region of 70% and keep in mind it can never reach 100% because we want to eat out of season produce and also stuff that is difficult to grow here.

We still imported £7.4bn of unprocessed food. In 2013, 53% of the food we consumed came from the UK but 28% came from the EU.

By food type we imported more of all types of food than we exported apart from beverages (largely due to Scottish Whisky). In particular we import more meat, fruit and vegetables and cereals than we export.

It seems logical to me that as a net importer of food we will pay more in the short term for this (until we can negotiate a tariff free deal with the nations we deal with - by no means certain). Either way I still cannot reconcile this with your statement that we produce most of the food we consume.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/423616/foodpocketbook-2014report-23apr15.pdf

cells

BobQ wrote: »

We still imported £7.4bn of unprocessed food. In 2013, 53% of the food we consumed came from the UK but 28% came from the EU.

By food type we imported more of all types of food than we exported apart from beverages (largely due to Scottish Whisky). In particular we import more meat, fruit and vegetables and cereals than we export.

It seems logical to me that as a net importer of food we will pay more in the short term for this (until we can negotiate a tariff free deal with the nations we deal with - by no means certain). Either way I still cannot reconcile this with your statement that we produce most of the food we consume.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/423616/foodpocketbook-2014report-23apr15.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/316223/trade-selfsuff-02jun14.xls

self sufficiency ratio has hoovered between 72%-82% over the last 20 years

Even that I think is an underestimate because it doesn't matter much if we are self sufficient in say tomatoes because they form a tiny fraction of the calories we eat but they are expensive so will skew things on a £££ basis.


yes in the very short term if the EU puts tarriffs on the UK and vice versa food prices would go up. But very quickly (within weeks) we would find that instead of exporting £383.5 million of lamb and importing £382.9 million of lamb as was the case in 2013 both would fall towards £0

Likewise we might find that tesco will decide to import fewer biscuits from the EU and just place orders with uk biscuit manufacturers.

We might find that instead of being a big milk exporter and a big cheese importer (tarriffs both ways) the uk turns more of its milk into cheese. etc

Generali

If anyone's interested this is the actual HMT document:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf

TL;DR version:

In conclusion, the Treasury’s analysis shows that none of the alternatives come close to matching the net economic benefits to the UK of EU membership. Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, the UK economy is 6.2% larger in the EU, British families are £4,300 better off in the EU, and the UK’s receipts are £36 billion healthier in the EU. The overall economic benefits of EU membership are significantly higher than in any potential alternative.

michaels

Generali wrote: »

If anyone's interested this is the actual HMT document:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf

TL;DR version:

Is that families or households as with unrestricted eu immigration and restricted house building we are mathematically certain to see bigger households within the eu than outside. i.e. for most of us it is gdp per head (and its distribution) that matters rather than overall gdp (and as an aside in crowded parts of the country the same gdp per head with current population rather than a 10% increase would give a better quality of life)

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

If anyone's interested this is the actual HMT document:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf

TL;DR version:

you voted against this rubbish

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

you voted against this rubbish

Did I? When?

I haven't voted in the referendum yet. Plenty of time yet of course.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Is that families or households as with unrestricted eu immigration and restricted house building we are mathematically certain to see bigger households within the eu than outside. i.e. for most of us it is gdp per head (and its distribution) that matters rather than overall gdp (and as an aside in crowded parts of the country the same gdp per head with current population rather than a 10% increase would give a better quality of life)

No idea. I've not got as far as page 20 yet.

Still I'm sure that's at least 19 pages further than most people that have an opinion on it.

Alan_Brown

Generali wrote: »

Did I? When?

I haven't voted in the referendum yet. Plenty of time yet of course.

Didn't I read that you emigrated to Australia? (I may be confusing you with someone else, so apologies).

If you have, then why do you care about the UK and why would you vote in a referendum that won't affect you (unless you are coming back at some point)

Generali

Alan_Brown wrote: »

Didn't I read that you emigrated to Australia? (I may be confusing you with someone else, so apologies).

If you have, then why do you care about the UK and why would you vote in a referendum that won't affect you (unless you are coming back at some point)

I have emigrated to Australia however I am invited to vote in this referendum and have decided that I will take the British Government up on that invitation.

The outcome of the referendum will affect me in a number of ways. For a start I am a holder of an EU passport and Drivers Licence at present so a Brexit will impact on my freedom of movement and ability to drive.