EU Brexit impact - Treasury Analysis

missbiggles1

Alan_Brown wrote: »

Didn't I read that you emigrated to Australia? (I may be confusing you with someone else, so apologies).

If you have, then why do you care about the UK and why would you vote in a referendum that won't affect you (unless you are coming back at some point)

I can't speak for the other poster but very many Brits living abroad will remain UK taxpayers for the rest of their lives. Also, those who live in other EU countries and get the SRP and/or disability benefits will rely on the UK for their incomes as do any British pensioners who live off government pensions or those from UK companies.

In fact, many people in the latter group will be far more affected by the results of the referendum vote than those who live in the UK.

mayonnaise

Alan_Brown wrote: »

Didn't I read that you emigrated to Australia? (I may be confusing you with someone else, so apologies).

If you have, then why do you care about the UK and why would you vote in a referendum that won't affect you (unless you are coming back at some point)

I really don't get this little england attitude that someone who emigrates is assumed not to care about the UK.

N1AK

cells wrote: »

Even that I think is an underestimate because it doesn't matter much if we are self sufficient in say tomatoes because they form a tiny fraction of the calories we eat but they are expensive so will skew things on a £££ basis.

yes in the very short term if the EU puts tarriffs on the UK and vice versa food prices would go up. But very quickly (within weeks) we would find that instead of exporting £383.5 million of lamb and importing £382.9 million of lamb as was the case in 2013 both would fall towards £0

One of the reasons for the import and export of Lamb is that it is a seasonal product. Trade allows British farmers to produce more than is required for the domestic market during our season, and for us to purchase lamb from other countries outside our season. As usual it's clear that ignoring, or being ignorant of, economic realities is a keystone of brexiter campaigning.

Alan_Brown

mayonnaise wrote: »

I really don't get this little england attitude that someone who emigrates is assumed not to care about the UK.

Actually, I feel the 'Little Englander' attitude is when you go and live overseas and refuse to intergrate with your new country, preferring to hark back to your original country rather than to look forward with the new one.

If I had emigrated, and to a distant land especially, I doubt I would give a fig about the UK and it's political affiliations.

N1AK

Alan_Brown wrote: »

Actually, I feel the 'Little Englander' attitude is when you go and live overseas and refuse to intergrate with your new country, preferring to hark back to your original country rather than to look forward with the new one.

Your free to define terms as you please, however when your definition differs massively from the one accepted by the wider population it doesn't make you seem credible when you do so.

CLAPTON

N1AK wrote: »

Your free to define terms as you please, however when your definition differs massively from the one accepted by the wider population it doesn't make you seem credible when you do so.

yes the real definition is a racist, ageist stereotype

N1AK

CLAPTON wrote: »

yes the real definition is a racist, ageist stereotype

As is invariably the case with anything you claim the truth differs considerably. I've completely lost interest in whether you are universally wrong as a form of trolling, due to a staggering level of ignorance, or being so obsessive about your beliefs that reality is a mere inconvenience to be avoided; whichever it is it's clear that any attempt to discuss things rationally with you is futile.

CLAPTON

N1AK wrote: »

As is invariably the case with anything you claim the truth differs considerably. I've completely lost interest in whether you are universally wrong as a form of trolling, due to a staggering level of ignorance, or being so obsessive about your beliefs that reality is a mere inconvenience to be avoided; whichever it is it's clear that any attempt to discuss things rationally with you is futile.

maybe learning to write in English would help you express your ideas more clearly.

BobQ

Generali wrote: »

If anyone's interested this is the actual HMT document:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf

TL;DR version:

I clicked on this three times and got page not found messages.

This link seems identical but works.


https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf

BobQ

Generali wrote: »

If anyone's interested this is the actual HMT document:


TL;DR version:

Seems like a very comprehensive study which clearly explains its methodology and assumptions. Has there been any contradictory studies from the Leave campaign which define their methodology and assumptions?

Maybe those who favour Brexit can explain why the methodology or assumptions are flawed?

I can understand those supporting Leave not liking the report but it does seem like a very credible report on its modelling. It is certainly not a trivial piece of propaganda.

I note also that it states:

A subsequent UK government document will examine in detail the short-term economic implications associated with leaving the EU

So more to come.