EU Brexit impact - Treasury Analysis

Alan_Brown

mayonnaise wrote: »

I can only think of three. Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.
But these 'models' have been explicitly dismissed by the leave campaign.
Instead, Gove yesterday put his weight behind the Albanian option.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0e88d1a-0624-11e6-9b51-0fb5e65703ce.html#axzz46HOCK8NT
Shall we look up unemployment rates in Bosnia, Serbia, Albania and Ukraine?

If we arrange a free trade agreement with the US along the lines of the one they have with Mexico, do we all have to wear sombreros?

mwpt

Alan_Brown wrote: »

I already did, it's in the bit you cut out:

"The politicians talk of increased power and prestige. Do you see any of that power and prestige? Do you even want it? All it seems is that we get dragged into illegal foreign wars that we have no business with and which we cannot afford.

The ordinary man on the street just wants to get on with their quiet lives, and this will happen regardless of whether we are part of the EU or not."

Unless you're a politician or part of the top 1%, you won't see much of a difference whether we're in the EU or not.

So we will leave the EU, renegotiate a bunch of stuff, probably have a small (or large) dip in growth or even a contraction, to end up in a position where nothing is different from before for you or I?

My neighbours who plan to buy a retirement house in Spain can still do so in a few years time after Brexit (guaranteed), Andrei will still be around to fix the radiators, Martyna will still look after their children.

Sounds like an odd thing to be fighting so fiercely for.

Generali

Alan_Brown wrote: »

Unless you're a politician or part of the top 1%, you won't see much of a difference whether we're in the EU or not.

So you want out of the EU despite there being little difference either way.

Why bother? Seems a lot of fuss about nothing quite frankly.

Leaving is probably quite expensive what with all that faff with trade treaties and all but it's worth quitting because there isn't much difference.....


......ermmmm.


I enjoy logic and we could very well say that one of the wonderful things about the EU is that we join Aristotle with Cockney slang.

You really are talking out of you Aris though me ol' china.

Sheesh.

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

Why bother? Seems a lot of fuss about nothing quite frankly.

When Yugoslavia broke up into independent nations, all was resolved remarkably smoothly in fact, despite having to completely overhaul currencies, banking, the lot. Once independent a nation never yearns to give it up.


I'd say self determination and grasping ones own autonomy are noble causes, worth the hassle.


If we leave, the doomers will one day look back and laugh at how silly it was to be afraid of change.

Alan_Brown

Generali wrote: »

So you want out of the EU despite there being little difference either way.

Why bother? Seems a lot of fuss about nothing quite frankly.

Leaving is probably quite expensive what with all that faff with trade treaties and all but it's worth quitting because there isn't much difference.....


......ermmmm.


I enjoy logic and we could very well say that one of the wonderful things about the EU is that we join Aristotle with Cockney slang.

You really are talking out of you Aris though me ol' china.

Sheesh.

Why the insults? Can you not debate without descending to that level?

We pay an awful lot of money each year to be a member of a club in which we don't really participate. Its like being the member of a gym that you never go to. That money could be better spent elsewhere.

In the end it all comes down to whether or not you believe in devolution, whether you feel that local issues are better dealt with on a local, national or international level.

I'm excited by the devolution I'm seeing in Greater Manchester, I think our health service (for example) will be better served at a local level by people who understand the needs of the locality.

By the same token, I think that the national interests of the UK are better served by a national UK government, not an international conglomeration of countries who all have their own aims and agendas.

I have no interest in the international interests of the EU. I'm not a politician craving power, nor am I part of the top 1% who actually benefit at an international level.

Alan_Brown

Conrad wrote: »

If we leave, the doomers will one day look back and laugh at how silly it was to be afraid of change.

Just as they now look back at the decision not to join the Euro and schengen area and realise how disastrous to the UK that would have been.

mayonnaise

Alan_Brown wrote: »

We pay an awful lot of money each year to be a member of a club in which we don't really participate. Its like being the member of a gym that you never go to.

We pay (not an awful lot) of money to have unfettered, tariff free access to the common market. The sums we save thanks to tariff-free trade vastly outweighs what we spend on membership fees.

But I like your gym analogy. The brexiteers would have us believe we can stop paying gym membership fees, but still have access to the gym. On top of that we'll be given a free personal trainer and unlimited fitness classes.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

So you want out of the EU despite there being little difference either way.

Why bother? Seems a lot of fuss about nothing quite frankly.

Leaving is probably quite expensive what with all that faff with trade treaties and all but it's worth quitting because there isn't much difference.....


......ermmmm.


I enjoy logic and we could very well say that one of the wonderful things about the EU is that we join Aristotle with Cockney slang.

You really are talking out of you Aris though me ol' china.

Sheesh.

However, you chose to quit the security and guaranteed prosperity of the EU even though you knew that one day Turkey and other middle Eastern and N African countries would be a part.
I could understand if you were a single man but to submit your family to such a high risk venture is truly most curious. There must be some hidden reasons unless you are talking out of your Aris.

Alan_Brown

mwpt wrote: »

So we will leave the EU, renegotiate a bunch of stuff, probably have a small (or large) dip in growth or even a contraction, to end up in a position where nothing is different from before for you or I?

That's about the size of it, except with the freedom of trade and the reduction of unregulated immigration, perhaps the ordinary man in the street will have better job prospects and higher wages.

I think that government is much better at a local level. I think devolution in Scotland, NI, Wales and now in regions of the UK is the best approach for those individual regions. The statement "Who better to decide what's best for Scotland, than the Scottish?" holds true for all of the devolved regions.

The same holds true at a National Level. "Who better to decide what's best for the UK, than the British?". Do the Austrians, Slovenians, Portuguese know what's best for the UK. Do they have the UK national interests at heart. Will the trade agreements negotiated by a conglomeration of these countries be the best trade agreement for the UK and UK businesses?

I believe that the more local the government, the greater the impact (both good and bad) and, importantly, the more you feel involved. An EU superstate with unelected leaders, based overseas does not make me feel involved.

I've answered a lot of your questions in this thread. Can you answer some of mine? What are the benefits to you personally of being in the EU?

Alan_Brown

mayonnaise wrote: »

We pay (not an awful lot) of money to have unfettered, tariff free access to the common market. The sums we save thanks to tariff-free trade vastly outweighs what we spend on membership fees.

But I like your gym analogy. The brexiteers would have us believe we can stop paying gym membership fees, but still have access to the gym. On top of that we'll be given a free personal trainer and unlimited fitness classes.

It's no longer the common market. Last year we paid £18bn into the EU and got back 5bn in rebate and 4bn in spending on the UK. That's a net payment of £9bn fee for tariff free access to EU markets.

There are 50 countries that that have free trade with the EU and pay no membership fees.

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/november/tradoc_150129.pdf