EU Brexit impact - Treasury Analysis

mwpt

Alan_Brown wrote: »

Or the UK one, where a country of 64 million consumers (not 5m like Norway or 8M like Switzerland) and a GDP per Capita of $2.678 trillion (not the Norwegian $512.6 billion, or the Swiss $685.4 billion) can negotiate it's own individual deal.

This is before we consider the markets that the UK opens up do to our historical ties and existing trade deals, such as the US, China, India, Aus, NZ, Canada).

It's disingenuous to represent the UK as being the same as much smaller and much more isolated countries as Norway and Switzerland. They got the best deal they could, corresponding to their possible contribution to the EU. The UK is a much different beast, and it'd be nice if the Remainers stopped talking this country down and instead talked up the EU (if that is indeed possible).

Perhaps if the UK leaves, the other EU affiliated countries may renegotiate their own deals, this time from a position of power now that the EU needs them as much as they need the EU.

Speaking in terms of positivity, what specific problems are you hoping to address by leaving? I have consumed all the debates about making our own laws and immigration, but I'm looking for specifics. What will be the first actions and new laws which you would implement on leaving and what specific problems would they solve? In what way will our lives be better a few years after leaving the EU?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I think the problem is that the Tory's took votes off UKIP in the General Election by promising this referendum.

Actually that's the opposite of what happened.

The Tories took centrist voters (and seats) off the Lib Dems as they had successfully detoxified their brand during the coalition years and Labour had swung too far left for these middle ground voters.

Remain really need to get a handle on the immigrant question. Start pushing some positives, and stop trying to repeat Scotland 2014. It's a very different referendum.

Nope.

The 'immigrant question' cannot be won by Remain. Racists are racists and no workable concession will be enough for them. If they focus on it they'll only lose support.

Remain's best bet is to keep focusing on the economy and reminding people of the facts - which are 100% true - that leaving will cost ordinary people a big hit to their standards of living, with reduced business investment causing job losses, worse trade deals causing increased prices, and a smaller economy leading to higher taxes, cuts to services, etc.

michaels

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Actually that's the opposite of what happened.

The Tories took centrist voters (and seats) off the Lib Dems as they had successfully detoxified their brand during the coalition years and Labour had swung too far left for these middle ground voters.



Nope.

The 'immigrant question' cannot be won by Remain. Racists are racists and no workable concession will be enough for them. If they focus on it they'll only lose support.

Remain's best bet is to keep focusing on the economy and reminding people of the facts - which are 100% true - that leaving will cost ordinary people a big hit to their standards of living, with reduced business investment causing job losses, worse trade deals causing increased prices, and a smaller economy leading to higher taxes, cuts to services, etc.

How does a worse trade deal lead to high prices - I haven't seen many countries applying export tariffs recently.

When we are outside the CAP will we be able to benefit from the below cost of production agricultural produce the EU currently dumps on Africa undermining the African nations domestic farming industries?

Rinoa

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Remind me again, how well has that worked for another country that has spent a couple of decades engaging with the EU looking for better deals - Turkey - with it's 75m consumers?

Do they have a better deal than Norway or Switzerland currently?

They still manage to export 80Bn to the EU each year.

Turkey's problem is that their exports to the EU are 50% higher than imports, not so an attractive proposition to the EU, whereas the reverse is true for the UK.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

....When we are outside the CAP will we be able to benefit from the below cost of production agricultural produce the EU currently dumps on Africa undermining the African nations domestic farming industries?

Doesn't that mean that African consumers currently benefit from below cost of production agricultural produce from the EU, and that if we are outside the CAP it will mean that our domestic farming industry will be undermined by EU dumping?

cells

michaels wrote: »

How does a worse trade deal lead to high prices - I haven't seen many countries applying export tariffs recently.

When we are outside the CAP will we be able to benefit from the below cost of production agricultural produce the EU currently dumps on Africa undermining the African nations domestic farming industries?

The UK actually produces most the foods it consumes.

Base foods are extremely cheap and most foods are just a mix of base ingredients

For instance the price of corn (maize) and wheat is about 10p a kilo. Rice/sugar 20p a kilo.

Turn that into calories and you get in the region of 10p a day for a persons food needs.


My best guess is outside the EU prices will fall marginally, UK farmers will not be happy but they will produce more or less the same amount of foods. Farmland prices to buy and to rent will likely fall helping offset some of the lower prices.

Conrad

mwpt wrote: »

Speaking in terms of positivity, what specific problems are you hoping to address by leaving? I have consumed all the debates about making our own laws and immigration, but I'm looking for specifics. What will be the first actions and new laws which you would implement on leaving and what specific problems would they solve? In what way will our lives be better a few years after leaving the EU?

Tailor made trade deals across the globe, unhampered by the EU. Canada for example has crafted 5 more since 2009 alone and has nothing like our deep global links and influence.


Small nations find doing trade deals easier than an amalgam of 28 nations with disparate and multitudinous needs and local rules.


The EU has 53 trade deals from Iceland to Turkey, we will be the 54th

Conrad

How has New Zealand’s trade deal with China turned out;

http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/feeding-the-dragon-lessons-of-the-new-zealand-china-fta/



'From an economic perspective, the free trade agreement has been a remarkable success for New Zealand, increasing exports to China from NZD2.2 billion ($1.8 billion) in 2008 to NZD8.6 billion in 2012 (the most recent statistics). As tariffs on 95 per cent of the products New Zealand exports to China are incrementally phased out (the FTA comes fully into force in 2019), trade is only set to increase'.

mwpt

Conrad wrote: »

Tailor made trade deals across the globe, unhampered by the EU. Canada for example has crafted 5 more since 2009 alone and has nothing like our deep global links and influence.

Small nations find doing trade deals easier than an amalgam of 28 nations with disparate and multitudinous needs and local rules.

The EU has 53 trade deals from Iceland to Turkey, we will be the 54th

But what are you expecting the result of that to be? In what way will our lives be better?

Alan_Brown

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Remind me again, how well has that worked for another country that has spent a couple of decades engaging with the EU looking for better deals - Turkey - with it's 75m consumers?

Do they have a better deal than Norway or Switzerland currently?

Well Turkey has a total GDP of $822.1 billion which compares favourably with both Norway and Switzerland, but is dwarfed by the UK, but the main reason that they are not welcome to the EU club is because they have an outstanding territory dispute with Greece over Cyprus. There are also Human right violations and the necessary economic reforms have stalled or are moving at a snails pace.

Also, Turkish opinion on EU entry is changing. A poll is 2003 showed that only 29% of Turks supported an EU constitution and only 43% viewed EU accession favourably.

I'm sure Turkey (and possibly some EU members and affiliates) are looking closely to see if we leave and the sort of deal we receive.