EU Brexit impact - Treasury Analysis

Alan_Brown

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And that will be worst hit by leaving the EU.

I can understand how their income would be hit by inward immigration, especially by low skilled immigrants who would drive down the already low pay by undercutting their wages and also by possible reductions to in-work benefits due to the transfer of CTC payments overseas.

I don't understand why you'd believe that they would be the worst hit by leaving the EU?

Generali

Alan_Brown wrote: »

I can understand how their income would be hit by inward immigration, especially by low skilled immigrants who would drive down the already low pay by undercutting their wages and also by possible reductions to in-work benefits due to the transfer of CTC payments overseas.

I don't understand why you'd believe that they would be the worst hit by leaving the EU?

I leave it for HAMISH to explain his views but it doesn't take much of a squizz around the world to see that the poorest in poor countries get little if any welfare yet the rich still seem to get along well enough.

mwpt

Alan_Brown wrote: »

I can understand how their income would be hit by inward immigration, especially by low skilled immigrants who would drive down the already low pay by undercutting their wages and also by possible reductions to in-work benefits due to the transfer of CTC payments overseas.

I don't understand why you'd believe that they would be the worst hit by leaving the EU?

In a downturn or recession, who are the ones usually most affected? Those sitting in the top 50% or those in the bottom half? What do you imagine would happen to roles which companies can offshore for lower cost than British workers? And when our farmers can't compete with imported food? And will the next government even agree to limit the import of these workers if we can't offshore the roles? Try telling the NHS they can no longer import workers from Asia and Africa. Also explain to everyone why their tax bill has gone up to pay for the higher wage NHS workers. Explain why the poor are hardest hit in percentage terms when the cost of goods and services they consume rises.

michaels

Exactly - try to explain to the middle classes why they should pay more for their Cappuccinos, plumbers, child minders and the home help for their parents just so that those with fewer skills can earn a wage that pays for their accommodation rather than having to compete with an East-European for whom the minimum wage is above the median age of their home country and is wiling to live in someones garage because they are young and it is a bit of an adventure for a few years.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

In a downturn or recession, who are the ones usually most affected? Those sitting in the top 50% or those in the bottom half? What do you imagine would happen to roles which companies can offshore for lower cost than British workers? And when our farmers can't compete with imported food? And will the next government even agree to limit the import of these workers if we can't offshore the roles? Try telling the NHS they can no longer import workers from Asia and Africa. Also explain to everyone why their tax bill has gone up to pay for the higher wage NHS workers. Explain why the poor are hardest hit in percentage terms when the cost of goods and services they consume rises.

In a recession or downturn immigration level of 300,000 per annum clearly hurt the people at the bottom half of the income scales.
Your argument about offshoring jobs is bizarre as this has happen to a massive amount whilst we have been members of the EU so presumably is a strong argument for exit.
Only a some-one mad or bad could possibly fail to understand the difference between unlimited EU immigration and selective immigration of people with specific essential skills.
In a recession, prices typically fall.

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

In a recession or downturn immigration level of 300,000 per annum clearly hurt the people at the bottom half of the income scales.
Your argument about offshoring jobs is bizarre as this has happen to a massive amount whilst we have been members of the EU so presumably is a strong argument for exit.
Only a some-one mad or bad could possibly fail to understand the difference between unlimited EU immigration and selective immigration of people with specific essential skills.
In a recession, prices typically fall.

Disagree with [strike]most[/strike] all of those points.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

Disagree with [strike]most[/strike] all of those points.

very well argued points

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

very well argued points

Same for you.

mwpt

michaels wrote: »

Exactly - try to explain to the middle classes why they should pay more for their Cappuccinos, plumbers, child minders and the home help for their parents just so that those with fewer skills can earn a wage that pays for their accommodation rather than having to compete with an East-European for whom the minimum wage is above the median age of their home country and is wiling to live in someones garage because they are young and it is a bit of an adventure for a few years.

There is no free lunch for poor or middle class people (rich will always do ok). You think you can mandate poor people richer? We can do that already by raising minimum wage or bringing back stronger unions. Immigrants don't just take jobs, they demand job creation for services and goods they consume.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

Immigrants don't just take jobs, they demand job creation for services and goods they consume.

One wonders why that market magic doesn't work in their own countries.