Cameron spending £9 Million on Brexit Propaganda.

HornetSaver

Ok, my last post went down like a piece of dried-up tumbleweed.

Ironically, at about the same time that I wrote it, a Brexit MP was telling the BBC that several of them were considering exactly that:

Meanwhile one Conservative backbencher, speaking on condition of anonymity told BBC Radio 4's World at One that the main focus for a group of pro-Brexit MPs was now whether to attempt to stop all government business, because of the leaflet.
'Act of arrogance'

MPs will debate the Finance Bill, which enacts the Budget, on Monday, and some MPs are considering organising a mass abstention.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35995594

SnooksNJ

Generali wrote: »

11% of Brits have never used the internet:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/itandinternetindustry/bulletins/internetusers/2015

It seems a shame to deny them such important information.

Or they could just be like me and hang up when someone calls to do a survey.
I think a great majority of those who actually don't have the internet either read a newspaper, watch TV, or have friends to discuss these issues.

Generali

HornetSaver wrote: »

Ok, my last post went down like a piece of dried-up tumbleweed.

Ironically, at about the same time that I wrote it, a Brexit MP was telling the BBC that several of them were considering exactly that:



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35995594

It sounds like a lot of bluster to me. If you really planned to bring the Government to a halt why not say so openly? After all, the Government is going to notice pretty quickly.

It's worth noting that 'abstaining on the budget en masse' is exactly the same thing as 'bringing the Government down' as if the Government can't get the budget through the Queen will call on someone else to form a Government and if nobody steps she will call fresh elections.

HornetSaver

Before the threat my reckoning was that there were 330 MPs who could be expected to vote for the budget, 303 who could be expected to vote against, 4 that would not under any circumstances turn up, 11 that are hard to predict (NI Unionist Parties and Carswell), and the speaker. EDIT: Not sure why this only adds up to 649, and don't care enough to try and find the missing one, but the numbers essentially hold).

So there could be a hardcore of 10-15 usual suspects who could go that far, knowing that the budget will still pass. If the government expels them it loses its overall majority, and if it doesn't expel them the "next tier" of Euroskeptics (prepared to consider defying a two or three line whip in the interests of helping Brexit, but not on a matter that would trigger the fall of the government) will be much more emboldened over the following couple of months.

Generali

HornetSaver wrote: »

Before the threat my reckoning was that there were 330 MPs who could be expected to vote for the budget, 303 who could be expected to vote against, 4 that would not under any circumstances turn up, 11 that are hard to predict (NI Unionist Parties and Carswell), and the speaker. EDIT: Not sure why this only adds up to 649, and don't care enough to try and find the missing one, but the numbers essentially hold).

So there could be a hardcore of 10-15 usual suspects who could go that far, knowing that the budget will still pass. If the government expels them it loses its overall majority, and if it doesn't expel them the "next tier" of Euroskeptics (prepared to consider defying a two or three line whip in the interests of helping Brexit, but not on a matter that would trigger the fall of the government) will be much more emboldened over the following couple of months.

You're missing the Speaker, that makes 650.

I just don't see how it would be helpful to the Brexit cause to bring down the Government. Realistically, at best it would make the Brexitiers look like a bunch of swivel-eyed lunatics and push voters away.

HornetSaver

Generali wrote: »

You're missing the Speaker, that makes 650.

I just don't see how it would be helpful to the Brexit cause to bring down the Government. Realistically, at best it would make the Brexitiers look like a bunch of swivel-eyed lunatics and push voters away.

It goes back to my earlier comment about how important you perceive this vote to be.

If the government sees it as vital that we vote to remain, it should fully utilizing the strongest weapon it has - taxpayer's money - regardless of political consequences. Whereas if remain is simply a preference, or the slightly better of two options, why destabilize the governing party for the sake of one leaflet?

By the same token, there are over 100 Conservative MPs who actively want the UK to leave the EU. A small minority of them genuinely believe that it is the most important issue they have ever gotten involved in, and therefore are considering whether they should utilize the strongest weapon they have - the threat of bringing down the Government - in order to improve the chances of Brexit. Among that small group I think the threat is genuine, the only question they will be mulling over is whether abstaining on the budget will improve the chances of Brexit or not.

fatbeetle

The government are giving people one side of the argument on how they should vote, rather than giving a balanced in or out perspective and letting the population make their own minds up.

“Propaganda is to a democracy what the bludgeon is to a totalitarian state.”
Noam Chomsky,

Generali

HornetSaver wrote: »

It goes back to my earlier comment about how important you perceive this vote to be.

If the government sees it as vital that we vote to remain, it should fully utilizing the strongest weapon it has - taxpayer's money - regardless of political consequences. Whereas if remain is simply a preference, or the slightly better of two options, why destabilize the governing party for the sake of one leaflet?

By the same token, there are over 100 Conservative MPs who actively want the UK to leave the EU. A small minority of them genuinely believe that it is the most important issue they have ever gotten involved in, and therefore are considering whether they should utilize the strongest weapon they have - the threat of bringing down the Government - in order to improve the chances of Brexit. Among that small group I think the threat is genuine, the only question they will be mulling over is whether abstaining on the budget will improve the chances of Brexit or not.

And if they bring the Government down what next? Either Labour get in standing on a platform of remaining in the European Union or the Tories get in on a platform of offering a referendum on the EU. Either the Euroskeptics are in a worse position than now or in exactly the same position as now.

Generali

fatbeetle wrote: »

The government are giving people one side of the argument on how they should vote, rather than giving a balanced in or out perspective and letting the population make their own minds up.

“Propaganda is to a democracy what the bludgeon is to a totalitarian state.”
Noam Chomsky,

Why would they give a balanced perspective? They believe that the EU is a good thing. Do you expect the Leave campaign to give a balanced perspective also?

HornetSaver

Generali wrote: »

And if they bring the Government down what next? Either Labour get in standing on a platform of remaining in the European Union or the Tories get in on a platform of offering a referendum on the EU. Either the Euroskeptics are in a worse position than now or in exactly the same position as now.

I agree - and I suspect that after a lot of deliberation so will the most radical Brexit Tory MPs.

But without a doubt they are looking for the most extreme action they can take to hurt the government without actually bringing it down, and that could well mean a handful of them abstaining, knowing that there aren't enough of them to swing the result. Also worthy of consideration is that a secondary aim of these MPs is to try and lower Gideon's standing ahead of a future leadership election, which a budget struggling to get through would undoubtedly do.