The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

On the backdrop of low oil prices which Scotland had a surplus for years.

That said, I'm all for and have said many times, I'm for standing on our own two feet and live without subsidies.

I don't hate the union, your being far too strong and I would prefer if you did not infer my views.

I simply think we will be better placed long term for the people in Scotland to be self determined.

At what cost?

Less jobs, higher debt, higher taxes, a combination of all 3?

IveSeenTheLight

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

In bold is the crux of your problem.

I've tried to explain it many times, I guess it's not being read or I'm posting in mandarin.

A good deal between the UK and the EU = Scottish independence might be viable economically.

A bad deal between the UK and the EU = Scottish independence is not viable economically.

If you're not involved in the EU side of discussions to influence a good deal for the UK then you're stuck with whatever the outcome of negotiations will be. Nicola is doing her best to sabotage them by threatening independence. What a clanger.

The gullible don't see the statistics on jobs, if the EU offers the UK a deal on the proviso we pay a £100bn exit bill, the UK says no and we walk away from talks and use WTO terms, Scotland will also be bound by these WTO tariffs whether Scotland is in the UK or the EU.

That would mean risk to either 500,000 jobs or risk to 120,000 jobs.

Under the umbrella of a good deal - not much will change so this "material change in circumstances" is on very dodgy ground and could be yet another reason to say No to another independence referendum on the basis that the deal we have suits Scotland just fine.

It's really a very simple concept.

I don't see it being a crux of the problem nor do I see the Scottish Government is threatening the Brexit Negotiations.

Scotland tried to get an agreement with TM, despite her assurances an agreement would be made.

Now the Scottish Government have discussed and agreed that the Independence referendum should be carried out once the results of Brexit is known.

Your muddying the waters trying to claim that we are hindering those negotiations.

The premise is now that Scotland wants to have a referendum on whether they want

• to remain in the UK with the Brexit details known
  or
• to be an independent country within the EU

there is much clamour for the rUK to have a referendum once the Bexit deal is finalised as well, its not just an Independence issue.

IveSeenTheLight

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

At what cost?

Less jobs, higher debt, higher taxes, a combination of all 3?

Short term maybe, long terms we would have the opportunity to move in a different direction than currently.

Just to turn your point round though, within the Union, Is Scotland fairing well?
Do we have a strong economy, devoid of deficit and a growing GDP.

If we are not fairing relatively well in the union, why should it not be conceivable to try and improve the situation

IveSeenTheLight

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

If England spent the same amount of money on the NHS as Scotland does - would the performance be worse?

If Scotland spent the same amount of money on the NHS as England does - would the performance be the same?

Hypothetical and not relevant to the facts

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I
In terms of value for money, efficiency England is clearly delivering a better service.

Tell that to the additional waiting time, 3 times as much over 4 hours since 2010/11.
They might think differently

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

but has benefited from the growth in overall GDP in terms of the money you're able to spend, whilst Scottish GDP is falling.

The facts shows that NHS spend has been cut in Scotland, not grown.
So we have had a population increase and cuts in spending, whilst England has increased the spend as the attendances increased

kabayiri

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Short term maybe, long terms we would have the opportunity to move in a different direction than currently.
...

Nobody sells this long term gain/short term pain vision though.

Not the SNP; not the Brexit team.

I suspect they fear that voters are obsessed with the short term. It's the same with tax policy, and it's why an iScotland would have a heap of expectations from Public Sector workers and the Unions to meet.

TrickyTree83

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I don't see it being a crux of the problem nor do I see the Scottish Government is threatening the Brexit Negotiations.

Scotland tried to get an agreement with TM, despite her assurances an agreement would be made.

Now the Scottish Government have discussed and agreed that the Independence referendum should be carried out once the results of Brexit is known.

Your muddying the waters trying to claim that we are hindering those negotiations.

The premise is now that Scotland wants to have a referendum on whether they want

• to remain in the UK with the Brexit details known
  or
• to be an independent country within the EU

there is much clamour for the rUK to have a referendum once the Bexit deal is finalised as well, its not just an Independence issue.

The economic argument is the one that ruins any argument for independence. Time and time again.

The EU knowing that Nicola and the devout are angling for an independence referendum to rejoin the EU will undoubtedly have an impact on negotiations, to the detriment of the rest of the UK.

But none of this changes the fact that on a spectrum of how good the UK - EU deal can be, the worst case scenario, as Nicola would say "car crash Brexit", is the worst possible situation for Scotland to become independent in. She has probably without knowing, since she seems preoccupied with independence at all costs, scuppered her own chances at being the FM to deliver Scottish independence.

After a bad deal you, Shakey, Nicola, et al, will be asking people whose jobs depend on the rUK to vote for independence, putting their employment, homes and families at risk.

Then there's the fishing industry who will turn against independence with its wagon hitched to the EU and the pro-unionist vote. If it's a bad deal it's a foregone conclusion for any future referendum. And after that the home nations will be reliant on each other even more than before so that puts a lid on the independence argument for a very long time.

.string.

Survey: Scottish independence threat causing more economic damage than Brexit

I'm sure an Indy Scotland would see a change in population with Scots flocking to the South for work and security - they would be welcomed of course. The inevitable years waiting for the SNP to negotiate a way into the EU as an insolvent nation would make things worse for Scotland and its economy. Investment - possibly this might happen when foreign investors buy up businesses cheap or more likely Real Estate for theme parks.

As for friendly relations with a really pizzed-off UK the best that could be expected would be indifference as the mood shifted from affectionate loyalty to concentrate on what was best for the rUK without regard for Scotland's interests.

Not a future I would wish but this is what awaits a Natland.

IveSeenTheLight

kabayiri wrote: »

Nobody sells this long term gain/short term pain vision though.

Not the SNP; not the Brexit team.

I suspect they fear that voters are obsessed with the short term. It's the same with tax policy, and it's why an iScotland would have a heap of expectations from Public Sector workers and the Unions to meet.

Unfortunately fear of change is a human nature and politics feed off and historically successful negative fear campaigning.

IveSeenTheLight

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The economic argument is the one that ruins any argument for independence. Time and time again.

i understand, the fear of change is a very difficult hurdle to overcome.
Human nature seems to show the majority would prefer to stagnate or go backwards rather than the risks and rewards to make great progressions.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

If it's a bad deal it's a foregone conclusion for any future referendum.

If its a forgone conclusion, then why the fear of allowing the democratic will of the people and MSP's of Scotland?

IveSeenTheLight

.string. wrote: »

As for friendly relations with a really pizzed-off UK the best that could be expected would be indifference as the mood shifted from affectionate loyalty to concentrate on what was best for the rUK without regard for Scotland's interests.
.

How do you envisage relations will be between the UK and EU.

Surely the same mantra could be extrapolated between the EU and the UK, or are they reliant on the UK too much to let that happen