The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

sss555s

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Six seats out of the 21 new seats is just 28%, not even a third.
Also the increased combined Tory and Labour numbers in local councils amount to increased opposition to SNP policies, do they not?


:T

You're arguing about 1.24% of the seats (new seats) divided among the other parties that SNP didn't get. I guess you're clutching at straws :rotfl:

sss555s

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I was going to respond but I have been beaten to it - and Tromking's post above explains admirably.

Basically we Scots ourselves are saying we don't want another bally referendum.
You'd better get used to hearing that.
SNP, pro indy ref = 35%
Labour against iny ref = 21%
Tory against indy ref = 22%

Just those two combined = 43% against indyref - and we'll see how it pans out in the GE.
Not good for the SNP potentially is the general consensus.
Especially given that these are actual figures and not polls (or guesses).

That's a non argument as not all SNP will vote yes nor will all con-labs vote no. And who ever combined labour and the torys together?! :rotfl:

SNP had 35.15% of the seats in 2012 and has 35.12% of the seats in 2017. The big news that you are failing to acknowledge is that the gap has widened from 30 seats to 155 seats.

A vote for the torys is a vote for a more dominate SNP and future referendum. :beer:

Shakethedisease

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

This GE is all about independence in Scotland.

Do you honestly think you can still argue for indyref2 if you (and possibly the greens combined) if you don't get pretty damn close to 50% share of the vote.

If as I suspect the SNP+Greens get less than 40% it is all over you can huff and you can puff all you like but that will be your reality.

Explain how that happens ? You say things like this a lot, but never get past just saying it. Who is going to put this arbitary 'line' for the SNP/Greens to cross in place and how exactly will it stop a referendum/vote happening in two years time since the Scottish Parliament has already voted for it to happen.

A second indy ref is already an Holyrood/Westminster issue. This GE won't change anything in that regard. Are you saying that the Tories will use vote share to justify blocking one ? Because we already know that's they way they're going to try playing it and this isn't news.

Holyrood however, won't accept that under any circumstances. Not when this GE is an election on the make up of the UK Govt and nothing to do with independence nor the wishes of the Scottish Parliament.

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

Desperate.
It wouldn't do any harm Shakey to admit that you were wrong on the rebirth of Scottish Toryism.

This isn't the rebirth of Scottish Toryism. They are a policy free zone up here. This is unionism rallying round one banner. Destroying Scottish Labour in the process.

To ignore it and then dream up another unlikely scenario that ends up with Scottish independence does not aid with your fast dissapearing credibility in my view.

If you can name me one recent Scottish Tory policy apart from the Union, then feel free to inform us all. I have no interest in your views on my own credibility.

The simple truth is that the majority of Scots are now voting to stop another referendum, all this talk of Holyrood has a right to call one is just guff to cover up a rather basic error in strategy by Sturgeon,

No, they were voting in local council elections. Councillors have no power over referendums and cannot stop them happening.

Unfortunately for you she is no Salmond.
You only hope is that Brexit is a complete disaster and all the political ducks are all lined up in a row, in order for the SNP to call for your much longed for indyref2.
Even in that unlikely scenario, a vote for independence would still involve the biggest leap of faith in referenda history.
Scotland is changing.

Brexit being a disaster isn't an unlikely scenario. Should it prove to be for many ( other than about 45% of Scots voters ) it will be a choice between what the voter perceives as the greater or lesser of two very bad options.

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I was going to respond but I have been beaten to it - and Tromking's post above explains admirably.

Basically we Scots ourselves are saying we don't want another bally referendum.
You'd better get used to hearing that.
SNP, pro indy ref = 35%
Labour against iny ref = 21%
Tory against indy ref = 22%

Just those two combined = 43% against indyref - and we'll see how it pans out in the GE.
Not good for the SNP potentially is the general consensus.
Especially given that these are actual figures and not polls (or guesses).

We'll have to see where those figures are in about two years time Jock. After Brexit happens, there's no point pre-empting them now. There's a large swathe of Labour voters who are going to be on the fence over the next year or so regarding independence.

Yesterday in simple graph form this is what happened.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

sss555s wrote: »

You're arguing about 1.24% of the seats (new seats) divided among the other parties that SNP didn't get. I guess you're clutching at straws :rotfl:

No, you are very obviously the straw-clutcher in claiming that the SNP provided a "crushing defeat".
Laughably inaccurate - as expected.

Here goes then:
2015 election, SNP vote share 50%
2016 election, SNP vote share 46.5%
2017 election, SNP vote share 36%

Do you see a trend yet?
:T

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

No, you are very obviously the straw-clutcher in claiming that the SNP provided a "crushing defeat".
Laughably inaccurate - as expected.

Here goes then:
2015 election, SNP vote share 50%
2016 election, SNP vote share 46.5%
2017 election, SNP vote share 36%

Do you see a trend yet?
:T

3 different elections, 3 different turnouts, 3 different voting systems. Clutching at vote share straws Jock.

Nothing now can stop a Scottish Parliament/Westminster confrontation over a second indy ref. The Tories just need to manufacture a reason for May to block one. Am not sure the vote share in a UK election on the make up of a UK parliament is going to suffice in justifying it to be honest.



https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-to-back-independence-referendum-if-snp-leads-poll-gz8tl5t2f

TrickyTree83

sss555s wrote: »

That's a non argument as not all SNP will vote yes nor will all con-labs vote no. And who ever combined labour and the torys together?! :rotfl:

SNP had 35.15% of the seats in 2012 and has 35.12% of the seats in 2017. The big news that you are failing to acknowledge is that the gap has widened from 30 seats to 155 seats.

A vote for the torys is a vote for a more dominate SNP and future referendum. :beer:

When everyone clearly understands you're purposely misleading people with those numbers why do you persist?

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

This isn't the rebirth of Scottish Toryism. They are a policy free zone up here. This is unionism rallying round one banner. Destroying Scottish Labour in the process.

If you can name me one recent Scottish Tory policy apart from the Union, then feel free to inform us all. I have no interest in your views on my own credibility.

No, they were voting in local council elections. Councillors have no power over referendums and cannot stop them happening.

Brexit being a disaster isn't an unlikely scenario. Should it prove to be for many ( other than about 45% of Scots voters ) it will be a choice between what the voter perceives as the greater or lesser of two very bad options.

Brexit being "bad" is an opinion even under WTO terms. However in that scenario Scottish independence is dead for the foreseeable future. Remember the trade? Remember the jobs? Fraser of Allander can't be correct about jobs at risk from Brexit and not about jobs at risk from independence just because you don't like the numbers.

Even the arguments about having a referendum are now on dodgy ground. The actual arguments for independence are complete rubbish now. You NEED a great deal between the UK and the EU or the dream is dead. You will not find enough stupid people to vote for redundancy. You just won't, everyone knows this. Then there's the fishermen and the union support. Your own pro Indy support base is being alienated by hitching your wagon to the EU before you even achieve independence.

It's a massive own goal for pro indy supporters, massive.

sss555s

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

When everyone clearly understands you're purposely misleading people with those numbers why do you persist?

There is nothing misleading about facts Tricky. Show me where my figures are wrong?

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Brexit being "bad" is an opinion even under WTO terms. However in that scenario Scottish independence is dead for the foreseeable future. Remember the trade? Remember the jobs? Fraser of Allander can't be correct about jobs at risk from Brexit and not about jobs at risk from independence just because you don't like the numbers.

Even the arguments about having a referendum are now on dodgy ground. The actual arguments for independence are complete rubbish now. You NEED a great deal between the UK and the EU or the dream is dead. You will not find enough stupid people to vote for redundancy. You just won't, everyone knows this. Then there's the fishermen and the union support. Your own pro Indy support base is being alienated by hitching your wagon to the EU before you even achieve independence.

It's a massive own goal for pro indy supporters, massive.

There is not much facts in the above quote but a load of unknown half truths and negative predictions which none of will have any if much bearing on the long term success of an independent Scotland.

The real horror story is if we stay under a future Westminster control.