The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

islandannie

Well Well welcome to the SNP remaining in the EU single market providing sunshine and haggis pies free for everyone.

OH OH!! what is this prepostrous piece of nonsense.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-39657013

IveSeenTheLight

islandannie wrote: »

Well Well welcome to the SNP remaining in the EU single market providing sunshine and haggis pies free for everyone.

OH OH!! what is this prepostrous piece of nonsense.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-39657013

Sorry, I must be missing you point.

Diageo has been threatening closures and job threats for years and have raised this again because of Brexit.

Are you supporting the independence of Scotland and remaining in the EU to mitigate the concerns Diageo have?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/diageo-brexit-cut-jobs-scotland-gmb-trade-union-alcoholic-drinks-company-scottish-employees-a7693511.html

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Well, that's nice. But if independence is dead in the water, how come May is trying to stop another referendum then ? How come Davidson, Rennie and Dugdale have got 'Stop the referendum' in every council leaflet they've sent out ? And these are council elections remember, nothing there will stop a referendum. How come Davidson's only policy is 'stop the referendum' ? How come May has waded into Scottish council elections asking people to 'send the SNP a message that there will be no referendum ?'. In fact why is that all the other parties ever talk about ? And is only going to get MUCH worse in the next few weeks now leading up to a General Election.

Your post just doesn't stack up. If independence is dead in the water, how come it's all anyone ever talks about when as far as Scottish politics are concerned ? May can barely even get through a weekly PMQ's without mentioning 2014 these days.

You misunderstood. It doesn't matter if you have another referendum or not. The argument can only be won for independence if the Scottish government work with the UK government for the best possible deal between the EU and the UK. Otherwise you're asking people to vote themselves out of a job. You've already lost fisherman by tying up independence with EU membership/CFP compliance.

Everyone should no longer be talking about independence or another referendum until the details of the deal are known, Scotland's future depends on those details both inside and outside of the UK.

Edit: basically you're arguing that it's still going because you're fighting for a referendum. But even if you had that referendum clearly you've already lost the argument unless all the jobs at risk from independence can be protected. That requires access as good as you have now and you'll not have a say on the EU side of things. The Scottish government by trying to ruin Brexit and be a thorn in the side during negotiations should be derided not celebrated by pro independence supporters. Do you not see?

.string.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

May's going to have to rule it out altogether string. She's got no way of keeping up the 'now is not the time' line. Sturgeon agrees with her, it IS too early it's two years from now that's the time.

I expect May will put something in the Conservative manifesto saying No and Sturgeon will put something in hers saying Yes. The EU will want to know too if there is a referendum happening or not for obvious reasons. But they're likely to be more concerned if May keeps up the 'now is not the time' narrative, simply because they'll see little point in negotiations over UK trade, only to have to unpick it all again after the deal is done.

May's only real option is to rule it out for as long as she's PM. But she's opening up a huge untested legal and political constitutional can of worms surrounding what the Union actually means between Scotland / England as nations ( plus devolution etc ) once she does so. The UK is very rare indeed in it's constitutional make up. Sturgeon's also a solicitor/lawyer by profession, I'm sure she and many other experts have looked into this 'once or twice' themselves over the years... oh and there is no written UK constitution. Things just get added, taken away and tacked on over the years.

This referendum isn't demanded by the SNP. The Scots electorate voted for it in 2016 just before the Brexit vote.

Duck face :- Just google selfie/duckface.

There are two "Referendums" here, one is a legal Referendum done according to the UK Constitution and the other is the "Referendum" on which the SNP is putting it's hopes. May does not have to reject the first, as I have said, and as for the second all she has to do is declare it illegal and not recognised by the UK Government.

I know you think there are legal arguments regarding a new definition of the meaning of legal, but the effect of any vote, masquerading as.a Referendum, being unrecognised by the UK Government would be to discredit it before it was even started.

So Duck Face is a prejorative, who would have thought that.

Edit: I noted that you did not react to the 6 reasons I gave for not agreeing a Referendum at this time.

IveSeenTheLight

.string. wrote: »

There are two "Referendums" here

You could summarise the situation as : -

March 28th: Scottish Parliament vote for an Independence referendum - Westminster say not now, the time is not right

April 19th: Westminster vote for a snap General Election - Date determined as 08th June 2018

What a difference a month makes

We can clearly see where the control is.

I often wonder what is the point in having a devolved government without full autonomy.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

You misunderstood. It doesn't matter if you have another referendum or not. The argument can only be won for independence if the Scottish government work with the UK government for the best possible deal between the EU and the UK. Otherwise you're asking people to vote themselves out of a job. You've already lost fisherman by tying up independence with EU membership/CFP compliance.

Everyone should no longer be talking about independence or another referendum until the details of the deal are known, Scotland's future depends on those details both inside and outside of the UK.

Edit: basically you're arguing that it's still going because you're fighting for a referendum. But even if you had that referendum clearly you've already lost the argument unless all the jobs at risk from independence can be protected. That requires access as good as you have now and you'll not have a say on the EU side of things. The Scottish government by trying to ruin Brexit and be a thorn in the side during negotiations should be derided not celebrated by pro independence supporters. Do you not see?

Again, it's a nice thought. But all of the devolved govt's weren't even informed when May was going to be triggering Article 50. So working with the UK Govt is not on the cards. The UK Govt has no intention of letting any of the devolved govts work with them.

What you're really saying is that they should all shut up and sit down because they're causing problems stating where they believe their own interests lie, simply because they conflict with whatever ( still unknown ) plans May has for Brexit going forward. NI, Scotland and Wales cannot afford to do that.

Jobs 'depending' on Brexit or Scottish independence according to that report depend on trade. Trade isn't going to stop overnight. Two years negotiating plus a three year transitional plan for Brexit. Should Scotland vote for independence during that time both Scotland and rUK will be into the transitional phase of Brexit anyway. Unless May is planning to crash out of the EU with no plan, in which case everyone has more immediate trade problems.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Again, it's a nice thought. But all of the devolved govt's weren't even informed when May was going to be triggering Article 50. So working with the UK Govt is not on the cards. The UK Govt has no intention of letting any of the devolved govts work with them.

What you're really saying is that they should all shut up and sit down because they're causing problems stating where they believe their own interests lie, simply because they conflict with whatever ( still unknown ) plans May has for Brexit going forward. NI, Scotland and Wales cannot afford to do that.

Jobs 'depending' on Brexit or Scottish independence according to that report depend on trade. Trade isn't going to stop overnight. Two years negotiating plus a three year transitional plan for Brexit. Should Scotland vote for independence during that time both Scotland and rUK will be into the transitional phase of Brexit anyway. Unless May is planning to crash out of the EU with no plan, in which case everyone has more immediate trade problems.

In essence the devolved administrations should reasonably act as devolved administrations and not equals to Westminster - as they're not. So telling those in Westminster what they'd prefer to happen and then having Westminster collate the results and formulate a reasonable approach for the entire country. That doesn't seem unreasonable. But instead the Scottish government dug their heels in and laid down red lines and demands when they really are in no position to do so. That may be tough to hear but it's the truth, everything that is going on with Brexit is under Westminster (i.e. reserved) control.

The jobs dependent on the UK market in Scotland are exactly what it says on the tin. Trade will not stop overnight, very true, completely agree, unreasonable to suggest otherwise.

But lets not ignore what those jobs figures mean.

~500,000 jobs in Scotland rely on the rUK market.
~120,000 jobs in Scotland rely on the EU market.

If the UK gets a deal with the EU that lessens the impact on the UK economy then a smaller proportion of the 120,000 will be hit.

If the UK gets a bad deal with the EU then possibly all of the 120,000 could be hit.

At the same time it's also true that if the UK gets a good deal with the EU that Scotland could be independent, join the EU and suffer a proportionally smaller hit to the 500,000 jobs that depend on the rUK market.

But also true that if the UK gets a bad deal with the EU that were Scotland to be independent and in the EU and therefore subject to the deal that possibly all of the 500,000 jobs could be hit.

Therefore I would have thought the Scottish government would be doing everything in its power to lessen the hit to Scottish jobs. Saying they'd like to keep Single Market access as we have now is fine, but threatening independence if you don't get it is not.

Because by saying they want to keep Single Market access as we have now they demonstrate that they want to protect the jobs that depend on the EU. But by threatening independence to rejoin the EU they are threatening 500,000 jobs in the process. The Scottish government doesn't appear to going about its business in a logical way, in fact its rather fanatical in its pursuit of independence and has forgotten completely about the rUK market.

Threatening 500,000 jobs to protect 120,000 jobs is not sensible, I'm sure everyone will agree with that.

Hopefully this time (I've forgotten how many times I've been over this argument) I've made it clearer to understand. Not only does the independence argument depend on a good Brexit deal, but the Scottish government are working against that right now and also therefore against independence being a workable solution for you. It seems that only the Westminster government in that situation is working towards an achievable independent Scotland. It's bizarre is it not?

Edit: To give this more context, the SNP and in particular Nicola Sturgeon are constantly referring to Brexit as a cliff edge. If that cliff edge deal comes to pass, 120,000 is less painful than 500,000. Are they not being disingenuous?

mayonnaise

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Sorry, I must be missing you point.

I suspect annie scored a bit of an own-goal there.

.string.

mayonnaise wrote: »

I suspect annie scored a bit of an own-goal there.

Not really, Annie's post exposed that being within the EU is not a panacea for job security since,, as ISTL pointed out, jobs have been at risk for years i.e. pre Brexit. I think ISTL did indeed miss the point. Brexit is an oscillation on top of what was planned apparently. Mind you if Natland did come about, a pre-shrunk Natland currency would improve Natland's cost competitiveness, so low-paid jobs might recover.

.string.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You could summarise the situation as : -

March 28th: Scottish Parliament vote for an Independence referendum - Westminster say not now, the time is not right

April 19th: Westminster vote for a snap General Election - Date determined as 08th June 2018

What a difference a month makes

We can clearly see where the control is.

I often wonder what is the point in having a devolved government without full autonomy.

The two situations are quite different but I too wonder about the point of the current Scottish SNP Goverrnment, they're a totally unconstructive waste of space at Westminster and neglect the Day job of their devolved responsibilities.

They're a good whinge machine though.