The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

@TT - I think you pointed the same thing out a few pages ago.

Having been away for a bit, I've been trying to catch up with the posts ( about 20 pages + of them). I think I've become a Masochist.

I was surprised that May called for a GE, but on reflection, I buy the rational; a hiatus in the pace of negotiations with the EU, the growing certainty that spoiling tactics from the Lib Dems, the currently myopic Labour leadership, and the whinge machine of the SNP, coupled with the death throes of the Corbin leadership, made the timing good. As has been said the Government needs to have a better mandate to be able to negotiate successfully. The choice of 8th June was a brilliant masterstroke since that is the day I shall return to the UK so I'll be able to do my duty.

I don't see a direct interaction with the Scottish Independence issue, excepting a potential downturn in the SNP fortunes, debated some pages back. I noted that Sturgeon did not like it (which I found encouraging), maintaining that the decision put party interests first and not in the interests of the country as a whole. The party interest barb was a new landmark in hypocracy, but it was so nice to hear Sturgeon's concern for the country of the UK. I never knew she cared!

But there will be an interaction with the Indy thing. The SNP now have to write their manifesto with policies they would follow if:
A). There is a Referendum and they win
. There is a Referendum and they don't win
C). There is no Referendum

Tricky choices to be made, and if only one is given which one will it be and tricky justifications for why it was the only context and why the others were missed out

I wonder what they will do. My bet would be on them ducking every issue in sight.

I wouldn't bet on that at all. If voting in 56 MPs out of 59 isn't enough, a pro indy majority at the Scottish Govt isn't enough, nor a bill passed by the Scottish Govt enough, a 62% vote to remain in the EU enough, nor yet another likely SNP majority at Westminster. None of that is enough to justify a referendum what's it to be then ?

Perhaps the SNP will just go for the 'every vote is a vote for indy' in the General Election ( copyright T.May every Conservative vote makes me stronger).. May plainly isn't going to listen to Scottish voters no matter what they do or how they vote that much is now is perfectly clear.

However, I am trying to upgrade the political messaging – to Defcon One, if you like. At the moment, by endlessly pleading with a tin ear government in London for the right to consult our own people, we play their game. We make it sound as if our objective is indyref2 itself when it is of course independence.

http://derekbateman.scot/2017/04/19/defcon-one-please/

Now the SNP did say a vote for them in 2015 wasn’t a vote for a second referendum, it’s true. But I begin to wonder if, based on those relentless electoral successes – the very definition of democratic mandates – the demand should go beyond a referendum and instead be a call for full independence.

http://derekbateman.scot/2017/04/18/up-the-ante/

And Bateman is normally very softly softly too. But his general premise is right, and I've seen this sort of narrative repeated over the last two days a lot. It's becoming obvious Scotland's wishes are just going to be completely dismissed. Time to perhaps up the ante right enough. Salmond would definitely just go for it in this situation, but am not sure Sturgeon would do something so risky. However, when one has nothing to lose...

Perhaps Sturgeon should just put outright independence in her manifesto coming, given it's obvious the democratic request for a referendum is going to be ignored. That really would be interesting.

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Perhaps Sturgeon should just put outright independence in her manifesto coming, given it's obvious the democratic request for a referendum is going to be ignored. That really would be interesting.

Oh yes, please please please make it happen shakey.

davomcdave

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I wouldn't bet on that at all. If voting in 56 MPs out of 59 isn't enough, a pro indy majority at the Scottish Govt isn't enough, nor a bill passed by the Scottish Govt enough, a 62% vote to remain in the EU enough, nor yet another likely SNP majority at Westminster. None of that is enough to justify a referendum what's it to be then ?

We've gone over this many times. You don't get a Neverendum. You don't get to go back to the electorate at huge cost, while Scottish schools are expensively failing their pupils we could add, until you get the answer that you want.

The SNP's approach is as transparent as it is ridiculous. You lost a once in a generation or lifetime chance. You blew it because you had no answer to how you were going to replace the massive subsidy from London and you blew it because you had no answer to what currency you were going to use. Too bad. Maybe the next generation won't choose a bunch of muck ups to run their independence campaign. Choose leaders that sort out the basics before the campaign starts rather than halfway through.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

Oh yes, please please please make it happen shakey.

Mrs May doesn't want it to happen mrginge.

Am not 100% convinced myself. But given there's little point in Scottish MP's being at Westminster these days and a definite feeling that nothing is ever going to be enough. The prospect of a Tory super majority at Westminster for the foreseeable future is also bound to concentrate more than a few Scots minds. Sturgeon however likes to play things straight and by the book. Which I suspect in the end she'll do. Preferring folks to face the reality ( or the full horror for half a million still Scottish Labour voters ? ) of that Tory super majority for a wee while first.

Is obvious May's never going to "sanction" another section 30 until it's too late. Sturgeon is going to have to bypass her one way or another in order to allow Scots even to vote on their own future. Which in itself is an absolute and total nonsense within a union.

The bill has already been voted through by the Scottish Govt for a second referendum, there's no need for another one. This GE changes absolutely nothing there in that regard no matter what the media try and spin. Scottish MP's aren't part of it ( no matter how many are returned ). The die has already been cast there.

It must be tempting though just to put independence explicitly on the manifesto given a request for a section 30 will be ignored anyway...one does wonder... and there has been 'talk'. :cool:

Shakethedisease

davomcdave wrote: »

We've gone over this many times. You don't get a Neverendum. You don't get to go back to the electorate at huge cost, while Scottish schools are expensively failing their pupils we could add, until you get the answer that you want.

The SNP's approach is as transparent as it is ridiculous. You lost a once in a generation or lifetime chance. You blew it because you had no answer to how you were going to replace the massive subsidy from London and you blew it because you had no answer to what currency you were going to use. Too bad. Maybe the next generation won't choose a bunch of muck ups to run their independence campaign. Choose leaders that sort out the basics before the campaign starts rather than halfway through.

What on earth are you wittering on about ? If it's in the manifesto and people vote for it what are you going to do ?

You're in a Union with Scotland ( after all if England isn't in a Union what's the UK then ?) not a dictatorship. You don't get to tell people in Scotland what they can and cannot vote for in free and fair elections. If Scots vote for the SNP be it with a referendum or independence in their manifesto then you're just going to have to lump it AND the consequences am afraid. Like Scots have had to do when other nations in this Union vote for Conservatives with Brexit referendums in their manifestos. We have to suck it up. You will too. Sorry.

Either that or find some means of stopping voters putting an X in the box next to the SNP or the Greens ? Scots get a referendum or a vote one way or the other if that's what they vote for. The Scottish Govt will make sure of it one way or another. The SNP and other pro indy parties have been planning for this all their lives. Brexit and this Tory Govt with a huge majority saying No to referendums Scots have actually voted for via political parties offering it, is actually a dream come true scenario for them.

Perhaps it really is time to put it in a manifesto. No section 30 required and no arguments about timing or legalities either. Job done with 35 or so MP's though the figure is likely to be nearer 50. Makes perfect sense !

I hope I haven't wound you up too much but you really need to stop trying to put the Scottish electorate back in it's wee tartan box and told to shut up as a mere inconvenience. We don't like it.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

What on earth are you wittering on about ? If it's in the manifesto and people vote for it what are you going to do ?

You're in a Union with Scotland ( after all if England isn't in a Union what's the UK then ?) not a dictatorship. You don't get to tell people in Scotland what they can and cannot vote for in free and fair elections. If Scots vote for the SNP be it with a referendum or independence in their manifesto then you're just going to have to lump it AND the consequences am afraid. Like Scots have had to do when other nations in this Union vote for Conservatives with Brexit referendums in their manifestos. We have to suck it up. You will too. Sorry.

Either that or find some means of stopping voters putting an X in the box next to the SNP or the Greens ? Scots get a referendum or a vote one way or the other if that's what they vote for. The Scottish Govt will make sure of it one way or another. The SNP and other pro indy parties have been planning for this all their lives. Brexit and this Tory Govt with a huge majority saying No to referendums Scots have actually voted for via political parties offering it, is actually a dream come true scenario for them.

Perhaps it really is time to put it in a manifesto. No section 30 required and no arguments about timing or legalities either. Job done with 35 or so MP's though the figure is likely to be nearer 50. Makes perfect sense !

I hope I haven't wound you up too much but you really need to stop trying to put the Scottish electorate back in it's wee tartan box and told to shut up as a mere inconvenience. We don't like it.

The usual SNP 'We speak for all Scots' and 'stop repressing me England' whilst in receipt of billions in subsidies narrative from you again.
The majority of Scots are becoming weary with this Shakey.

Shaka_Zulu

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Job done with 35 or so MP's

If you only keep 35 or so MPs might I suggest your call for independence is dead in the water.

Even I don't think it will be that bad for the SNP unless there is some tactical withdrawals from a number of constituencies.

If you really want to keep the dream alive you are going to need to get more than 50% of the vote. If you do that even I will concede that a referendum should be called.

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Mrs May doesn't want it to happen mrginge.

When have you been interested in doing what Mrs May wants?

Am not 100% convinced myself. But given there's little point in Scottish MP's being at Westminster these days and a definite feeling that nothing is ever going to be enough. The prospect of a Tory super majority at Westminster for the foreseeable future is also bound to concentrate more than a few Scots minds. Sturgeon however likes to play things straight and by the book. Which I suspect in the end she'll do. Preferring folks to face the reality ( or the full horror for half a million still Scottish Labour voters ? ) of that Tory super majority for a wee while first.

Is obvious May's never going to "sanction" another section 30 until it's too late. Sturgeon is going to have to bypass her one way or another in order to allow Scots even to vote on their own future. Which in itself is an absolute and total nonsense within a union.

The bill has already been voted through by the Scottish Govt for a second referendum, there's no need for another one. This GE changes absolutely nothing there in that regard no matter what the media try and spin. Scottish MP's aren't part of it ( no matter how many are returned ). The die has already been cast there.

It must be tempting though just to put independence explicitly on the manifesto given a request for a section 30 will be ignored anyway...one does wonder... and there has been 'talk'. :cool:

Yes it simply has to go in. Your reasoning is perfectly sound and really there's no alternative if the snp believe that there will be no chance of an agreed ref within two years.
In the game of sturgeon vs may it's the decisive play. No comeback, all or nothing.

Please report back that I say it's a winner.

mollycat

Tromking wrote: »

The usual SNP 'We speak for all Scots' and 'stop repressing me England' whilst in receipt of billions in subsidies narrative from you
again.
The majority of Scots are becoming weary with this Shakey.

Wish there was a "Super Thanks" button!

Well said

.string.

mrginge wrote: »

When have you been interested in doing what Mrs May wants?


Quote from Shakey:
"Am not 100% convinced myself. But given there's little point in Scottish MP's being at Westminster these days and a definite feeling that nothing is ever going to be enough. The prospect of a Tory super majority at Westminster for the foreseeable future is also bound to concentrate more than a few Scots minds. Sturgeon however likes to play things straight and by the book. Which I suspect in the end she'll do. Preferring folks to face the reality ( or the full horror for half a million still Scottish Labour voters ? ) of that Tory super majority for a wee while first.

Is obvious May's never going to "sanction" another section 30 until it's too late. Sturgeon is going to have to bypass her one way or another in order to allow Scots even to vote on their own future. Which in itself is an absolute and total nonsense within a union.

The bill has already been voted through by the Scottish Govt for a second referendum, there's no need for another one. This GE changes absolutely nothing there in that regard no matter what the media try and spin. Scottish MP's aren't part of it ( no matter how many are returned ). The die has already been cast there.

It must be tempting though just to put independence explicitly on the manifesto given a request for a section 30 will be ignored anyway...one does wonder... and there has been 'talk'."

Yes it simply has to go in. Your reasoning is perfectly sound and really there's no alternative if the snp believe that there will be no chance of an agreed ref within two years.
In the game of sturgeon vs may it's the decisive play. No comeback, all or nothing.

Please report back that I say it's a winner.

Yes a winner one way or the other.

Regarding the issue of there being no point in Scottish MPs being at Westminster I would not agree, not all are SNP. With such a large contingent of SNP MPs hell bent on being unpleasant, average value for money is reduced, but one or was it 6 PM Questions ago one of them made a valid point, and they have ably demonstrated the character of the SNP to those that listened for more than 10 seconds. Having a more representative set of Scottish MPs would be a great benefit.

Well Sturgeon has a few days to cobble together a manifesto and we all wait to see what will be in it. Will they have the courage to write down what they really want, rather than hide it in the small print?

The key issue will be their share of the popular vote. Its importance will be directly related to the openess of the SNP regarding their aims and their master plan for Scotland's separated economy.