The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Thrugelmir

Leanne1812 wrote: »

What's really frustrated me about this debate is the focus on immigration & the implications with terrorists being shipped in by the thousands. Really pathetic small minded thinking in my opinion.

I'd strongly recommend that you visit the Middle East. As will open your eyes to the very different views that are held. Likewise Russia. History has left it's mark on culture and perceptions.

Leanne1812

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I'd strongly recommend that you visit the Middle East. As will open your eyes to the very different views that are held. Likewise Russia. History has left it's mark on culture and perceptions.

I'm not sure what you mean. Can you elaborate for me please?

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

If the UK does vote for Brexit then the British and Scottish economies will be absolutely shafted anyway, the pain is coming no matter what you do, and whilst I still maintain an iScotland would be dramatically worse off outside a UK that was still in the EU..... It would only be somewhat worse off than a UK that had voted to leave.

If Scotland immediately voted to separate there may be a slim legal case it could inherit, ie retain, the UK's membership of the EU and remain in rather than leaving and having to rejoin as would have been the case at the last referendum.

And if that legal case can be made, and if the UK also chose to leave the Single Market as well as the EU, then Scotland would be better served long term as an EU/Single Market member than as part of the UK outside of the EU and Single Market.

Under those very specific circumstances, an iScotland remaining in the single market while the rUK leaves the single market, I genuinely believe iScotland would see a surge of inward investment and employment as multinational companies located in the UK for the purposes of serving the single market moved their EU facilities and HQ's across the border to Scotland.

And that an iScotland would inherit much of the UK's pole position as favoured launching pad for EU/Single Market headquartering of businesses given that locating in the rUK to access the single market would no longer be possible.

It's Sturgeons best chance - go for it immediately after if the UK voted to leave.

Even I would vote to leave the UK under those circumstances.

There's a real air of 'unreality' about a Brexit at the moment. The same kind of unreality when polls where showing the SNP would win 40+ seats in 2015, a Conservative majority, or Corbyn having loads of support, or when Trump announced his candidacy.

Most just don't think a Brexit will happen. It's too unthinkable, just like all of the above were. So people don't think very hard about afterwards till reality hits. I still can't really bring myself to believe that it will happen either. But then...

Anyway, talk of a 'snap indy referendum' immediately afterwards if there is a Brexit is rightly imo being swatted aside by the SNP. People will need a bit of time in Scotland to fully take in the consequences of both a Brexit, and the new power base at Westminster ( and the new PM ). Time, but not years. We're probably talking a few months if a groundswell of real independence support in light of a Brexit becomes apparent. It won't take long to catch fire once the result is clear. Westminster and the UK union at any cost may well suddenly become a price too high for every single political party in Scotland excepting the Tories, and every single Scottish media outlet barring the BBC. Gamechanger.

The EU themselves will also have a huge play a part in how they deal with the leaving of rUK, but at the same time a possible newly independent Scotland who's citizen's wish to remain EU citizens without interruption ( if that's the way Scotland votes ).

As Others See Us: the world wakes up to the "spectre" of post-Brexit Scottish independence

...France TV this week headlined on the prospect of Brexit leading to Scotland leaving the UK. "Nicola Sturgeon has announced that it would be unacceptable for Scotland to be thrown out of the EU against its will by the English," it reported. "As a consequence, she has threatened the British Government over and over again that she will organise a new referendum on independence."

Cue a repeat of those old debates about how easy it would be for Scotland to stay in the EU after Brexit and independence. And cue - again - the assumption that a way would be found. "In practice, it seems that if Scotland asked for accession to the EU, it would benefit from an accelerated procedure for entry," concluded France TV.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14550324.As_Others_See_Us__the_world_wakes_up_to_the__spectre__of_post_Brexit_Scottish_independence/


( full article at link ).

But hey, what does France TV know. It's all terribly chaotic. I can't wait for this ref to be over. The Scottish one seemed so different from my perspective. This one is just too full of negatives from both sides.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Most just don't think a Brexit will happen.

Yes, to be clear, I still think it's most probable the UK will vote to stay in the EU.

And even if the improbable comes to pass and we do leave the EU, that the politicians will panic once reality sets in and do whatever needs to be done to keep us in the Single Market.

Anyway, talk of a 'snap indy referendum' immediately afterwards if there is a Brexit is rightly imo being swatted aside by the SNP. People will need a bit of time in Scotland to fully take in the consequences of both a Brexit, and the new power base at Westminster ( and the new PM ). Time, but not years. We're probably talking a few months if a groundswell of real independence support in light of a Brexit becomes apparent. .

The timing is critical - as is what happens after a potential Brexit vote - because the only way any of it would work is if the UK then also decides to leave the single market and I don't think that would be settled for a year or so.

Again, to be clear, the only circumstances it makes absolute sense for Scotland to vote for indy are if the UK decides to leave the EU and decides to leave the single market and if Scotland could then vote to leave the UK and also be 100% sure of inheriting the UK's current EU membership, with all the various exemptions, etc, intact, as the remaining state.

That is a highly improbable set of circumstances and the timeline to try and pull it off would be unrealistically tight.

But if those were the exact circumstances we were asked to vote on I think we'd be mad to vote No.

skintmacflint

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Ineos are pulling out and moving their headquarters south. I posted a link to the newspaper article a few pages back.

Haven't caught up with what I've missed, nor found the link you mentioned. But can recall reading an article in Energy Voice in March where Jim Ratcliffe was confident on future fracking in Scotland. He could have pushed the SG into an awkward position over a planning application if he wished , but hasn't. .

It's too one sided. None of the other Scottish parties ever get the same treatment. No matter how deserved.

Because they aren't in government. Neither have the other parties marketed themselves as morally superior, more honest, transparent than the world and his wife, not to mention they will always put Scotland's interests first. Now it's increasingly obvious they are no different , and when it comes to it, will always put SNP party interest and Independence before Scotland's. .

It's ALL about the SNP. Even the other parties concentrate on them to the extent that they actively base party policy on trying to 'get one over'. It's bizzare.

Not really , it's what SNP did for years , and continue to do. All parties tend to compare and try to outdo each other on policies they think will win votes. Especially in comparison to those in governemnt.

For all their hype I can't think of any real change or radical policy SNP have implemented during their administration. Agree Labour are giving the appearance of being somewhat bewildered up here just now. But that still doesn't necessarily equate to votes for SNP or Independence either as you often suggest. ,

ps. So glad to hear you're on the road to recovery.

Thank you.

Shakethedisease

skintmacflint wrote: »

Thank you.

Here you go. 28th May.

The petrochemical giant Ineos has moved its fracking operation from Scotland to England amid frustration at the Scottish Government’s failure to back the controversial gas extraction technique.


Scotland on Sunday has learned that the multinational has informed Scottish ministers of its decision which has been made to take advantage of fracking opportunities south of the Border.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-fracking-policy-prompts-ineos-to-send-experts-to-england-1-4140648

The media, and the other political parties constant 100% focus on what the SNP do, or don't do. Is only serving to keep reinforcing and justifying how dominant the SNP is...to the voting public.

It's the old cliche that the only thing worse than being talked about even badly, is not being talked about at all. The other parties themselves constantly reference themselves in comparison to the SNP. The media is full of SNP this and SNP that. Nothing much else really. Even the Tories recent punt up the Scottish voting ladder seems generally to be voters doing an 'anyone but the SNP' tactical vote, rather than really endorsing what the Tories stand for.

I would like to hear a bit more about the other parties please. I have no idea what Scottish Labour stand for anymore, and the Scottish Tories seem to be rebranding themselves as the Ruth Davidson Party in order to hide their association with Cameron and co. But I never read anything about them in the papers unless they have something to say about the SNP !

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes, to be clear, I still think it's most probable the UK will vote to stay in the EU.

And even if the improbable comes to pass and we do leave the EU, that the politicians will panic once reality sets in and do whatever needs to be done to keep us in the Single Market.

The timing is critical - as is what happens after a potential Brexit vote - because the only way any of it would work is if the UK then also decides to leave the single market and I don't think that would be settled for a year or so.

Again, to be clear, the only circumstances it makes absolute sense for Scotland to vote for indy are if the UK decides to leave the EU and decides to leave the single market and if Scotland could then vote to leave the UK and also be 100% sure of inheriting the UK's current EU membership, with all the various exemptions, etc, intact, as the remaining state.

That is a highly improbable set of circumstances and the timeline to try and pull it off would be unrealistically tight.

But if those were the exact circumstances we were asked to vote on I think we'd be mad to vote No.

I guess if a Brexit does happen the biggest difference would be that the Scottish Govt would be perfectly justified in going to the EU and asking for answers up front. What could they could expect regarding timelines, exemptions, any accelerated procedures should an independence vote be in the offing. Guarantee's from the EU straight off the bat would be a huge advantage to any future vote.

But at the moment I think we're all pretty all referendum and electioned out up here. Roll on the 24th June !

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I guess if a Brexit does happen the biggest difference would be that the Scottish Govt would be perfectly justified in going to the EU and asking for answers up front. What could they could expect regarding timelines, exemptions, any accelerated procedures should an independence vote be in the offing. Guarantee's from the EU straight off the bat would be a huge advantage to any future vote.

The EU is renowned for bending it's own rules. One of the reasons that reform is necessary and why the existing structure is not working.

ruggedtoast

Seriously. Has ANYONE seen Graham Devon?

Shakethedisease

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Seriously. Has ANYONE seen Graham Devon?

I think he's in DT.