The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

cogito

If Sturgeon is so convinced that she has sufficient support amongst the Scottish electorate to win an independence referendum, all she needs to do is call another election and ask the Scottish people to back her. If she got that backing, the UK government would have little choice but to grant another referendum.

Bet she won't though.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The request for a Section 30 has gone in now. It's too late to stop the sequence of events that will follow from it. Arguing about mandates is over.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39449459?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_scotland_news&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=scotland

Your points re trade might well be valid as things stand right now. But trade for the entirety of the UK are about to change and are now question marks. Just like with the EU though trade won't cease and to paint it as some sort of either/or choice is laughable.

Politically ? Scots do not like what the rest of the UK vote for. And they also do not like the fact that the Labour party has to either turn into a pale imitation of the Conservative party in order to woo voters there, or else becomes irrelevant when it turns leftwards back towards it's more traditional voters. Scots voters have stuck with center left-ish parties for decades. It's the parties themselves that have changed. Scottish Labour is a dam waiting to burst imo especially given the below.

There's another row brewing with this Repeal Bill today, with ALL of the devolved parliaments. And it's clear now why there is such desperation to delay a second vote in Scotland until Brexit is over with. Scottish Labour have just spent months and especially the last few days trying to belittle independence on the basis that Holyrood with Brexit will have powers enhanced greatly, not powers taken from it.

Soon there is only going to be the Scottish Conservatives, and a couple of hopeful Lib Dems left in Holyrood arguing 100% for the union. Most of those made up of list MSP's who have never won an election in their lives.

Anyway. Sturgeon has penned her official section 30 letter now, let's see what happens next.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe I said one word about mandates?

Thrugelmir

cogito wrote: »

If Sturgeon is so convinced that she has sufficient support amongst the Scottish electorate to win an independence referendum, all she needs to do is call another election and ask the Scottish people to back her. If she got that backing, the UK government would have little choice but to grant another referendum.

Bet she won't though.

Doesn't strike me as an individual who'll take the same chance as Cameron and put their political career on the line.

davomcdave

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Yes, because at least Twitter provides a fuller picture than the Telegraph.



Just think, 1 more % and we could've called that last sentence 'overwhelming'.

So 51% of Scots don't understand the difference between a country (sovereign) and a nation (a group of people with one or more shared aspect e.g. gay nation or Zulu nation).

If Scottish people wanted to be sovereign and decide things like whether to remain in the EU they should have voted for it when they had the chance. Life doesn't give many second opportunities.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Your points re trade might well be valid as things stand right now. But trade for the entirety of the UK are about to change and are now question marks. Just like with the EU though trade won't cease and to paint it as some sort of either/or choice is laughable.

The points regarding trade reflect the current state of affairs, they will remain in this ball park for the next 2 years and may even increase further as trade with rUK has been increasing in Scotland at a much faster rate than with any other destination.

Trade for the entire UK may change dramatically, it also may not. I outlined the possibilities before, we do not know the nuances of a deal but we know what the two polar extremes of a deal are. Extrapolating from the two polar extremes we can find out which option and in which situation harms iScotland the most.

The way I've laid the argument out means that the point about "trade will not stop overnight" no longer works I'm afraid. There are the two polar options and everything between. Trade will be affected by varying degrees along that scale, at one end it makes sense for an independent Scotland but that outcome is not what the SNP are arguing about and if that outcome came to pass there's little point in independence anyway.

The alternative polar opposite is what the SNP are saying will happen, in which case iScotland will suffer the most under this outcome.

No one has said trade will stop over night, but in one of the polar extreme examples where WTO tariffs are in place, trade will suffer. Not overnight, but more like exsanguination over time, under a WTO tariff scenario either Brexit or iScotland will strike the wound, if a referendum occurs it will be up to you and your fellow Scottish citizens to decide how deep that wound goes and whether it's potentially fatal to your way of life or not.

Shakethedisease

cogito wrote: »

If Sturgeon is so convinced that she has sufficient support amongst the Scottish electorate to win an independence referendum, all she needs to do is call another election and ask the Scottish people to back her. If she got that backing, the UK government would have little choice but to grant another referendum.

Bet she won't though.

We've heard that line for months over her calling a referendum. Bluffing, bluffing, bluf..... oh.

The Scottish electorate have already backed another referendum. If Scottish elections were based on FPTP like Westminster elections the SNP would have 59 seats, Labour 3, the Conservatives 7 and the Lib Dems 4.

The UK Tories will ignore, deflect, move goalposts and try and delay another referendum whatever the Scottish Govt do in the next wee while. So things imo are going to have to go to court in order to bypass the politics and the Tories completely.. and stick purely to the legalities.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe I said one word about mandates?

Yes, you posted clips of speeches from Blair McDougall's timeline questioning the right of the SNP and the Scottish Greens to call a referendum based on those speeches.

foxtrotoscar_2

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Yes, you posted clips of speeches from Blair McDougall's timeline questioning the right of the SNP and the Scottish Greens to call a referendum based on those speeches.

Five years on...and no word on what the 'Independent' currency will be?
Sorry will/might be as it's probably a life time opportunity/a once in a lifetime opportunity according to the previous FM failure and his mythical memory? He clearly lied!

Shakethedisease

davomcdave wrote: »

So 51% of Scots don't understand the difference between a country (sovereign) and a nation (a group of people with one or more shared aspect e.g. gay nation or Zulu nation).

If Scottish people wanted to be sovereign and decide things like whether to remain in the EU they should have voted for it when they had the chance. Life doesn't give many second opportunities.

In politics. There is always another vote coming down the line at some point. With no government being able to bind the next one to it's predecessors policies.

New Government in Scotland in 2016. Whatever Salmond said, and however the electorate voted in 2014 is in the past and of it's time.

Shakethedisease

foxtrotoscar wrote: »

Five years on...and no word on what the 'Independent' currency will be?
Sorry will/might be as it's probably a life time opportunity/a once in a lifetime opportunity according to the previous FM failure and his mythical memory? He clearly lied!

You are talking about politicians here aren't you ? They all lie. And I'm not even sure Salmond was given that everyone at the time thought it would be a once in a lifetime opportunity. I certainly did think it would be a one off. He was trying to get the vote out. And in those particular circumstances, he managed to do just that admirably.

Who could've known just 2 years later what would happen and everything was back on the table ?

The Growth Commission will report soon enough on currency and other matters relating to independence. But there's no point as yet until we know when the next referendum or vote will be held.