The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

posh*spice

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

EEA can be done much quicker - and that gives us almost all of the benefits of the EU as an interim position.



We'll find out shortly.

Without the billions from RUK - or do you expect us to keep paying?

I suspect you'll find it very hard to borrow money for soverign debt too.....so yes austerity will be very harsh.

kabayiri

vivatifosi wrote: »

...
I get the reasoning, just not the timing, which smacks of posturing by a single issue party.

It's political opportunism I reckon.

Nicola knows full well that when A50 is well underway the political discussion in the media will switch to all matters European.

That's where the big wins or losses lie for UK.

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

...

So was England just a few years ago with an 11% budget deficit in 2009.

These things are painful to overcome but far from impossible to overcome.

The Scottish government could take steps to shrink the size of the state right now, if they wanted.

Charging for higher education, just like the rest of UK. There's one area of cost reduction.

But you know as well as I do that the political campaign narrative from a Socialist party like the SNP is not centred around state efficiency. It's all about promising jam tomorrow.

posh*spice

kabayiri wrote: »

The Scottish government could take steps to shrink the size of the state right now, if they wanted.

Charging for higher education, just like the rest of UK. There's one area of cost reduction.

But you know as well as I do that the political campaign narrative from a Socialist party like the SNP is not centred around state efficiency. It's all about promising jam tomorrow.

There is just no way Scotland will get into the EU running their economy as they do at the moment.

And the EU? Why would they want Scotland - they don't need another Greece.

TrickyTree83

Moby wrote: »

Excellent article by George Monbiot:-
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/15/theresa-may-dragging-uk-under-scotland-must-cut-rope


Despite all the brexiteer 'whistling in the wind' about our wonderful future as a free trade Singapore like economy.... ....the hard reality is summed up above and why would the Scottish people not hope for something better?


Mayhem is twisting around like a worm on a hook looking for a way to square the circle. Her dilemma is that the very arguments she is using to defend the Union are completely contradicted by her arguments for Brexit. She probably doesn't even believe in a hard Brexit herself....but she is held in thrall by her own loons. How long can she hold things together....the storm clouds are gathering...Will she be the Prime Minister that loses the union and begins the management of the ruk towards a long economic decline?

Hilariously wrong, an opinion hit piece by Monbiot. I expect nothing less from The Guardian these days, the liberals 'Sun' newspaper.

kabayiri

posh*spice wrote: »

There is just no way Scotland will get into the EU running their economy as they do at the moment.

And the EU? Why would they want Scotland - they don't need another Greece.

The EU need more countries with the financial attitude shown by Germany and Norway, not socialist Scotland.

This is a long term outlook, with prudent attention to detail. The SNP would never be able to sell Norwegian style financial discipline to the Scottish public. The supporters of parties like SNP and Labour fully expect their party to reverse austerity cuts when given the opportunity.

Hamish is right in saying that iScotland could survive, but they have the wrong party to manage the transition IMO.

Enterprise_1701C

I personally hope they manage to become independent, it is win-win for England. We get to keep the money we currently send to Scotland, revitalise our shipyards, and welcome any businesses that want to move south, and watch the scots having to pay for prescriptions, pay for further education (the payments THEY helped vote in down here), and the rest of the austerity programme they will be forced to run because they will not get funds from the UK.

That is quite apart from starting a new currency from scratch (you cant use the pound without being financially tied to the UK), setting up embassies, building an army, trying to join NATO and the EU - and if you finally manage to join the EU then you will almost certainly be forced to take on the Euro, so you will have spent a fortune setting up a currency then have to go over to the Euro which is designed to destroy all economies bar the German one so as to force people to stay in the EU. So basically, you are on the road to ruin.

That is, of course, if the EU still exists at the point you finally manage to qualify to join. In my opinion they cannot survive in the current form. And just what happens if Greece defaults in July?

I had a choice a week or so back between buying something from Scotland and paying a little extra for the English version. I chose the English version, if I started doing that before Sturgeon decided to have a tantrum and try to hamstring Brexit then how many other people down here are going to start making the same decision?

Still, if you want to jump out of the frying pan into the fire that is entirely up to you. But just remember, you will have turned off the tap that could put that fire out.

Shakethedisease

vivatifosi wrote: »

Sky did a poll yesterday showing that most Scots don't want another referendum, and it wasn't ny a small margin, either.

Why not hang on, see what Brexit brings, then if you aren't happy with the outcome, take it to the polls again.

The reality is that there are more people in England who voted remain than there are in Scotland. We lost, (I voted remain too). Having a vote during the Brexit negotiations just makes no sense.

It is already clear that due to the Barroso doctrine, Scotland will not be able to stay in the EU. So why not hang on, assess the situation in full possession of the facts?

I get the reasoning, just not the timing, which smacks of posturing by a single issue party.

No, the full terms of the deal will be known for everyone by Oct 2018 if we go by the two year timetable and if May triggers Article 50 this month. The negotiations will be over by then.

Sturgeon has timed her window to coincide with the end of negotiations. So we'll all know the facts we're voting on and that's the reasoning behind the timing.

Moby

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Hilariously wrong, an opinion hit piece by Monbiot. I expect nothing less from The Guardian these days, the liberals 'Sun' newspaper.

The problem with you is you don't listen to views which give answers to the questions you ask. You continually bang your drum about Scotland having no economic arguments for independence and I've told you time and time again why that position now has a limited impact, even with the fall in oil prices. I pointed out that the Brexit vote has also changed averything and opened up the brexiteers to charges of hypocrisy, because the 'Better Together' argument contradicts their position towards the EU. Monbiot produces a piece saying the same thing and your response is to label the Guardian as the liberals 'Sun' and as being 'hilariously wrong'. Is that the extent of your ability to move the discussion on?:rotfl:

Shakethedisease

posh*spice wrote: »

You won't get into the EU without getting your deficit down to 3%. It's currently 10%.

But good luck to you if you are up for that.

It'll make the situation in Greece look like a walk in the park. And don't expect the German's to feel sorry for you.

on deficit, Scotland would need an agreed convergence/reduction plan with EU but won't have to be at 3% pre-accession

That's from Kirsty Hughes who seems to be the Scottish media's 'go to' expert on EU law.

Also for those interested this is a full and very well explained pros/cons to the legalities and paths for Scotland into either the EEA and/or EU membership. ( longish read )

The most obvious route for Scotland to consider would be membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), along with Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. The EEA provides for participation of these non-EU countries in the EU’s single market freedoms and all the EU legislation related to them, as well as most EU employment and environmental law. But Scotland would not be covered by EU laws in other areas, notably agriculture, fisheries, tax and justice and home affairs – although, like Norway and Iceland, it could sign separate treaties with the EU on these issues.

Although the current EEA countries have joined Schengen, this is a separate issue (agreed years after the EEA), and Scotland would have no legal obligation to do the same.

http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/scotland-eu-and-indyref2-legal-issues.html