The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Moby

Excellent article by George Monbiot:-
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/15/theresa-may-dragging-uk-under-scotland-must-cut-rope

It would be foolish to deny that there are risks in leaving the United Kingdom. Scotland’s economy is weak, not least because it has failed to wean itself off North Sea oil. There are major questions, not yet resolved, about the currency it would use; its trading relationship with the rump of the UK; and its association with the European Union, which it’s likely to try to rejoin.

But the risks of staying are as great or greater. Ministers are already trying to reconcile us to the possibility of falling out of the EU without a deal. If this happens, Britain would be the only one of the G20 nations without special access to EU trade – “a very destructive outcome leading to mutually assured damage for the EU and the UK”, according to the Commons foreign affairs committee. As the government has a weak hand, an obsession with past glories and an apparent yearning for a heroic gesture of self-destruction, this is not an unlikely result.

Despite all the brexiteer 'whistling in the wind' about our wonderful future as a free trade Singapore like economy.... ....the hard reality is summed up above and why would the Scottish people not hope for something better?

In her speech to the Scottish Conservatives’ spring conference, Theresa May observed that “one of the driving forces behind the union’s creation was the remorseless logic that greater economic strength and security come from being united”. She was talking about the UK, but the same remorseless logic applies to the EU. In this case, however, she believes that our strength and security will be enhanced by leaving.

Mayhem is twisting around like a worm on a hook looking for a way to square the circle. Her dilemma is that the very arguments she is using to defend the Union are completely contradicted by her arguments for Brexit. She probably doesn't even believe in a hard Brexit herself....but she is held in thrall by her own loons. How long can she hold things together....the storm clouds are gathering...Will she be the Prime Minister that loses the union and begins the management of the ruk towards a long economic decline?

vivatifosi

elantan wrote: »

It has to be before the two year ends ... and have a wee look at Spain ... they say we are welcome now ... as do many others ( personally I'm not too impressed with that ... we should've been welcome first time round ... but that's another argument for another day )

Can you please point me to the written evidence that Scotland will be allowed to stay in the EU, as opposed to being welcomed back upon application?

posh*spice

elantan wrote: »

It has to be before the two year ends ... and have a wee look at Spain ... they say we are welcome now ... as do many others ( personally I'm not too impressed with that ... we should've been welcome first time round ... but that's another argument for another day )

You won't get into the EU with a 10% budget deficit - no chance.

You will have to create your own currency - and with a 10% budget deficit the interest rate on Scottish sovereign debt will astronomical. In fact, I 'm guessing that Scottish sovereign debt would be given a rating of junk.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

Why not hang on, see what Brexit brings, then if you aren't happy with the outcome, take it to the polls again.

We already know that the outcome will not be satisfactory for Scotland, who voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, as Theresa May has already announced the UK is leaving the SM, has ruled out any differential deals for the regions, and refused to even respond to the SG compromise proposals.

The reality is that there are more people in England who voted remain than there are in Scotland. We lost, (I voted remain too).

A minority of people in England voted remain.

A large majority of people in Scotland voted remain.

If you are English and a remain voter you lost, but if you are Scottish and a remain voter you won a thumping great victory only to have it be rendered meaningless by people in another country.

Having a vote during the Brexit negotiations just makes no sense.

On the contrary - if your goal is to win - to achieve independence that lets you stay in (or rejoin asap) the EU or EEA when the rUK crashes out... then having a vote at a time when you're most likely to win it makes the most sense.

Barrosso

Applies to the EU - not necessarily the EEA.

EEA would do fine as a short to medium term solution and could be arranged much more quickly.

I get the reasoning, just not the timing, which smacks of posturing by a single issue party.

Theresa May can call the whole thing off at any time by simply agreeing a compromise that respects the democratically expressed will of the Scottish people and allows us to stay in the SM via a differentiated deal.

She has had the SG compromise paper for 3 months and hasn't bothered to respond or even discuss it while her Brexiteer colleagues have been briefing against it in the press.

That shows an arrogance and disdain for Scotland - and so we are where we are - now she has a battle on at least two fronts and it also seems NI and now even Wales are becoming deeply unhappy with her course on Brexit.

If May wants to save the Union she has to start listening to and respecting the opinions of the other nations involved.

We've simply not seen any evidence of that so far.

If the referendum threat forces her to do so then that outcome will be better for everyone.

posh*spice

Moby wrote: »

Excellent article by George Monbiot:-
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/15/theresa-may-dragging-uk-under-scotland-must-cut-rope


Despite all the brexiteer 'whistling in the wind' about our wonderful future as a free trade Singapore like economy.... ....the hard reality is summed up above and why would the Scottish people not hope for something better?


Mayhem is twisting around like a worm on a hook looking for a way to square the circle. Her dilemma is that the very arguments she is using to defend the Union are completely contradicted by her arguments for Brexit. She probably doesn't even believe in a hard Brexit herself....but she is held in thrall by her own loons. How long can she hold things together....the storm clouds are gathering...Will she be the Prime Minister that loses the union and begins the management of the ruk towards a long economic decline?

There is big difference between - oh lets be honest - England and Scotland. Scotland is in a worse situation than Greece...

Scotland has no currency and no debt rating.....and it runs a budget deficit of nealy 10%. It won't get into the EU.

posh*spice

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

We already know that the outcome will not be satisfactory for Scotland, who voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, as Theresa May has already announced the UK is leaving the SM, has ruled out any differential deals for the regions, and refused to even respond to the SG compromise proposals.



A minority of people in England voted remain.

A large majority of people in Scotland voted remain.

Sure you can join the EEA but that won't entitle Scotland to EU handouts of the magnitude it currently gets from RUK.

If you are English and a remain voter you lost, but if you are Scottish and a remain voter you won a thumping great victory only to have it be rendered meaningless by people in another country.



On the contrary - if your goal is to win - to achieve independence that lets you stay in (or rejoin asap) the EU or EEA when the rUK crashes out... then having a vote at a time when you're most likely to win it makes the most sense.



Applies to the EU - not necessarily the EEA.

EEA would do fine as a short to medium term solution and could be arranged much more quickly.



Theresa May can call the whole thing off at any time by simply agreeing a compromise that respects the democratically expressed will of the Scottish people and allows us to stay in the SM via a differentiated deal.

She has had the SG compromise paper for 3 months and hasn't bothered to respond or even discuss it while her Brexiteer colleagues have been briefing against it in the press.

That shows an arrogance and disdain for Scotland - and so we are where we are - now she has a battle on at least two fronts and it also seems NI and now even Wales are becoming deeply unhappy with her course on Brexit.

If May wants to save the Union she has to start listening to and respecting the opinions of the other nations involved.

We've simply not seen any evidence of that so far.

If the referendum threat forces her to do so then that outcome will be better for everyone.

Scotland can threaten away - it doesn't change the fact that you have to be prepared to follow through on that threat.....

Are you really ready for Greek plus style austerity?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

posh*spice wrote: »

Scotland can threaten away - it doesn't change the fact that you have to be prepared to follow through on that threat.....

Are you really ready for Greek plus style austerity?

Yes.

I am fully aware that Scottish Indy would in the short to medium term have a large economic cost to the country and a large financial cost to me personally.

I view that as a price worth paying to stay in or rapidly rejoin the EU.

Scotland is in a worse situation than Greece...

So was England just a few years ago with an 11% budget deficit in 2009.

These things are painful to overcome but far from impossible to overcome.

posh*spice

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes.

I am fully aware that Scottish Indy would in the short to medium term have a large economic cost to the country and a large financial cost to me personally.

I view that as a price worth paying to stay in or rapidly rejoin the EU.

You won't get into the EU without getting your deficit down to 3%. It's currently 10%.

But good luck to you if you are up for that.

It'll make the situation in Greece look like a walk in the park. And don't expect the German's to feel sorry for you.

posh*spice

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So was England just a few years ago with an 11% budget deficit in 2009.

These things are painful to overcome but far from impossible to overcome.

And how painful has that been ??? You really think socialist scotland is up for that?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

posh*spice wrote: »

You won't get into the EU without getting your deficit down to 3%. It's currently 10%.

EEA can be done much quicker - and that gives us almost all of the benefits of the EU as an interim position.

You really think socialist scotland is up for that?

We'll find out shortly.