The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

elantan

http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/poll/14-03-2017/should-scotland-be-an-independent-country-


Interesting poll ...

Conrad

Just as big proportions of the French, Dutch, Danish, Swedish and Italian populations say they want out, Scotland wants in. the EU has lower growth, higher unemployment rate, higher inflation and higher interest rates than the UK

Hey ho

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Necessary for who?

People who voted to remain in the EU? What about those who voted to remain in the EU but also want to stay in the UK? What about all the people who voted to leave the EU and will not want to re-join it, even if it means letting go of the independence dream. I've read plenty of those on twitter today, individuals coming out saying how Nicola's got this all wrong.

I know that you and I will never swap perspectives, both of us are quite entrenched but I wouldn't presume to say "I'm reading the situation correctly" if I've had to 180 on things I'd predicted beforehand on this very thread. To me it looks very much like you've clung on to any thread of thought that makes the unlikely likely, the unpopular popular or the impossible possible to make the dream come true. Whereas I'd argue that I've tried my hardest to stick to the rules where they can be read, the statistics from official sources and articles where they can be verified and tested. I've not drawn my conclusions from much else, I did say that I think a referendum wouldn't happen, and there's a strong chance that it won't. Not a legally binding one, and a non-legally binding referendum instituted by the Scottish government on constitutional matters is in direct contravention of the reserved powers of Westminster, in effect a political coup. Which would be illegal should the result be contested in court, and as we've seen from Gina Miller, that doesn't have to be done by 'nasty' Westminster for that to happen.

I've been consistent from the beginning in first pointing out that Single Market membership or a Soft Brexit as it was known at the time would probably put the mockers on a second independence referendum. But, that a Hard Brexit would have Sturgeon calling one regardless of polls since she has nothing to lose by doing so. She honestly believes leaving it would be catastrophic to Scotland's economy and up until 9 months ago so did every other party leader in Scotland.

This is exactly what she did. Re the timing I've explained the reasoning behind it. Scotland having to go through an accession process into the EU means something has to be put in place in the interim. From a point of view of Scotland's best interests being served should they vote to go independent.. talks regarding this would be best taking place while Scotland is still at least within the Single Market.

Sturgeon won't wait until the UK has already left and you can take that to the bank also. Regardless of a section 30 being granted she will time 'a' vote to a window where the Brexit vote is already known, but the UK is still yet to leave. The SNP's aim at least after this would be a quick accession to full EU membership. This isn't a preferred destination shared by all in Scotland but the question is likely to be put to Scots again either via a general election after independence or via another ref.
The people right now who are against the EU will have the same say as anyone else in an indy ref. Any court case based purely on the Scots Govt's right to hold a referendum on Scottish public opinion is doomed to failure. The constitutional ramifications only come into play once the result of one is known.

It does look however like the EU are quite relaxed about an independent Scotland joining, and very quickly too at the moment.. This was earlier today.

Elmar Brok (European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs) states to dismayed BBC reporter that Scotland meets all that requirements to join without much negotiation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQzm0FXXerM&feature=youtu.be

posh*spice

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

As far as I am concerned Scotland can go off on their own and sulk in a corner, cant see eu taking them in while they are flat broke, and it will be hard to get close to 3% deficit when they have no income.

Scotland's deficit as % of GDP = 9% :eek:

Eye watering austerity to get that down to 3%

elantan

I do wonder if the yes campaign would be better to push for an EFTA for the fishermen and farmers and those that want out the EU

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I've been consistent from the beginning in first pointing out that Single Market membership or a Soft Brexit as it was known at the time would probably put the mockers on a second independence referendum. But, that a Hard Brexit would have Sturgeon calling one regardless of polls since she has nothing to lose by doing so. She honestly believes leaving it would be catastrophic to Scotland's economy and up until 9 months ago so did every other party leader in Scotland.

This is exactly what she did. Re the timing I've explained the reasoning behind it. Scotland having to go through an accession process into the EU means something has to be put in place in the interim. From a point of view of Scotland's best interests being served should they vote to go independent.. talks regarding this would be best taking place while Scotland is still at least within the Single Market.

Sturgeon won't wait until the UK has already left and you can take that to the bank also. Regardless of a section 30 being granted she will time 'a' vote to a window where the Brexit vote is already known, but the UK is still yet to leave. The SNP's aim at least after this would be a quick accession to full EU membership. This isn't a preferred destination shared by all in Scotland but the question is likely to be put to Scots again either via a general election after independence or via another ref.
The people right now who are against the EU will have the same say as anyone else in an indy ref. Any court case based purely on the Scots Govt's right to hold a referendum on Scottish public opinion is doomed to failure. The constitutional ramifications only come into play once the result of one is known.

It does look however like the EU are quite relaxed about an independent Scotland joining, and very quickly too at the moment.. This was earlier today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQzm0FXXerM&feature=youtu.be

Can we take it to the bank in the same way we could take not re-applying for membership to the bank?

It's all moot anyway if you lose a legal or illegal constitutional referendum isn't it.

As far as we officially know, she's going to ask for a section 30 from Holyrood, if she gets it rumour is abound that it's going to be delayed or denied although obviously this isn't confirmation of that. There's been no official statement regarding an 'off the books' referendum on the topic, just conversation in your circles and we know from track record how accurate that is and what it always looks like.

So how are the economics looking? Still denying the figures? If so, what is being given to the Scottish people instead to help inform them to make their decision?

posh*spice

Just reading that the net annual subsidy from RUK to Scotland is £12 billion - why can't I vote??

I guess the Nats think the German's will pick up this bill ))) They are wecome.

ProDave

My worry is there are almost enough Scots that hate the English / Westmisnter / Tories that they would vote for it even if they know beyond doubt it would be a disaster for the economy. You only then need to persuade a few gullible ordinary folk and it could happen.

posh*spice

ProDave wrote: »

My worry is there are almost enough Scots that hate the English / Westmisnter / Tories that they would vote for it even if they know beyond doubt it would be a disaster for the economy. You only then need to persuade a few gullible ordinary folk and it could happen.

Why is that a worry? It's their choice?

Tbh I don't think the EU will take them - they don't need another Greece.

posh*spice

Question to RUK posters - if Scotland votes to Leave - would you take them back into "The Union" ?