The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Thrugelmir

beecher2 wrote: »

Anyone seen more detail on Jason Allardyce's tweet this morning?
Panelbase poll for Sunday Times Scotland finds Labour facing meltdown in local elections and majority believes independence is inevitable

and how reliable are polls these days?

beecher2

Thrugelmir wrote: »

and how reliable are polls these days?

Not very but I'd like to see the detail. Doesn't take a pollster to know Labour are going to do very badly in the upcoming local elections though. We use STV and seem to be implying they will not work in partnership with the SNP in any local government, but will do so with the tories. All quite interesting.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

beecher2 wrote: »

Anyone seen more detail on Jason Allardyce's tweet this morning?
Panelbase poll for Sunday Times Scotland finds Labour facing meltdown in local elections and majority believes independence is inevitable

Panelbase has apparently only released a limited set of questions from it's last poll... The rest may be Sunday Times exclusives or not for release.

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W7181w9tablesforpublication300117.pdf

Interesting bits in there though....

- Headline Indy support is still 46/54
- Headline remain in EU support is still 61/39

49% of Scots now want another Indy referendum in the next 2 years or less.

And by a margin of 2/1 voters think the Scottish economy will be weaker after leaving the EU.

beecher2

Thanks Hamish, was looking at that earlier and thinking it must be further releases from the poll they had last weekend. Can see no details on the Labour results elsewhere, at this rate I might have to go out and buy the paper to see.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

beecher2 wrote: »

Thanks Hamish, was looking at that earlier and thinking it must be further releases from the poll they had last weekend. Can see no details on the Labour results elsewhere, at this rate I might have to go out and buy the paper to see.

If you do please let us know the relevant highlights....

kabayiri

If the EU offered favourable accession terms to an iScotland, would they also be duty bound to offer the same to any other new state?

I'm thinking perhaps NI here, or even a future Catalonia. Could the Catalans use this in their independence drive?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

If the EU offered favourable accession terms to an iScotland, would they also be duty bound to offer the same to any other new state?

I'm thinking perhaps NI here, or even a future Catalonia. Could the Catalans use this in their independence drive?

Discussion of 'accession' is premature - there is a strong legal argument that if Indy is voted for prior to the UK leaving the EU iScotland would remain in as the successor State for membership.

Burt putting that aside - there are virtually no impediments to Scotland gaining EEA membership almost immediately - it is already fully compliant with EEA rules as an existing EU member.

the EEA option includes things that Scotland seeks (single market participation) while steering clear of things it may wish to avoid (the single currency and deficit criteria, Schengen, EU trade policy with non-EU countries, and EU fisheries policy). It also has the advantage of being potentially speedier: the EU can decide to apply treaties with non-EU countries provisionally, pending national ratification.

What about the prospect of a ‘Spanish veto’ over Scotland joining the EEA? Here we have actual evidence to suggest that it’s not very likely. For the EU has recently concluded an association agreement with Kosovo – despite Spain (and four other Member States) refusing to recognise the independence of that country after its unilateral declaration of independence.

http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/scotland-and-brexit-brave-heart-or.html

antrobus

kabayiri wrote: »

If the EU offered favourable accession terms to an iScotland, would they also be duty bound to offer the same to any other new state?...

What favourable accession terms do you think would be offered, and why?

The EU is pretty clear about the 'Conditions for Membership'
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/conditions-membership_en

I don't think that any hypothetical 'iScotland' would have much of a problem with complying with the acquis, since the UK already does. An iScotland would only have issues in terms of demonstrating that, as a newly independent nation, that it had manged to set up the functioning bits and pieces necessary to apply the acquis. Such as a central bank, a currency, that sort of thing.:)

Where an 'iScotland' might have an issue is the Stability and Growth pact, which requires that the "ratio of the planned or actual government deficit to gross domestic product at market prices" should be 3%. Or less. Since we know from GERS that Scotland's deficit was more like 9.7% in 2015/16, which is bigger than Greece, that would be a problem.

I suppose that the EU might agree to some concession that involved transitional arrangements regarding iScotland's deficit reduction programme.

kabayiri wrote: »

..I'm thinking perhaps NI here, or even a future Catalonia. Could the Catalans use this in their independence drive?

If the Catalans could, then that would be a reason why Spain might say no to Scotland. As far as I'm aware, unanimity is still required from the existing EU members to approve a new member, so it only takes one country.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

Nope.

Sturgeon has to sell iScotland as a compelling proposition to the EU27, otherwise they are not going to risk an early engagement are they?

Until they accept iScotland, there is no SM access for Scotland. It's simple. No amount of local self belief will change that.

Certain EU countries (and even regions like Bavaria) want a good deal out of the future trading relationship with post-Brexit UK. So why would they seek to get things off on the wrong foot just to attract a relatively small new country?

Why should this new small country jump the accession queue over the other applicants? Do you think Turkey consider Scotland a more important potential new member than itself?

Sturgeon ( as Hamish has also alluded to ) only has to sell Single Market membership to the Scottish electorate, pitching it as as the lesser of two economic evils given that change is going to happen either way.

Whether that's via the EU/EEA/EFTA remains to be seen. Imo the most likely way at the present time ( given the current unknowns ) to win an indy ref campaign is via EEA or EFTA being put forward as a purely transitional option until independence and Brexit is sorted out. With a future EU referendum after this point.

However, the SNP are pro EU membership and it's unlikely they'll give up on this lightly.

antrobus

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Discussion of 'accession' is premature - there is a strong legal argument that if Indy is voted for prior to the UK leaving the EU iScotland would remain in as the successor State for membership....

There is a 'legal argument'. I'm no sure how strong it is. Besides, the UK will likely have already left the EU well before an iScotland comes into existence, so it's rather beside the point.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

...Burt putting that aside - there are virtually no impediments to Scotland gaining EEA membership almost immediately - it is already fully compliant with EEA rules as an existing EU member.

http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/scotland-and-brexit-brave-heart-or.html

Strange. That blog of yours says otherwise.

Of course, the EU and the UK’s Westminster government would have to consent to this in as part of their post-Brexit treaty, and it could only work if there was significant related devolution to Scotland, as the First Minister suggested.