The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

Dithering Nicola could even be outfoxed by events driven by EU politicians closely linked to the Brexit process.

If there is a move to negotiated settlement after the initial war of words, any dissenting words from Nicola would be seen as disruptive.

It'd be pretty easy to paint her as an arch manipulator with a narrow separatist cause.

Your picture is far too wide. The only thing Sturgeon needs to concern herself with is what Scottish voters think. Constitutional politics is the driving force behind most of Scottish politics at the moment, and has been accelerating in importance since 2011 to the point it now defines it completely.

She's certainly not seen as a narrow cause in Scotland, not with 45/6% of voters who think along the same lines she does. This something most posters here miss consistently. Sturgeon is all about Holyrood and one of her strengths is that she focuses her efforts there and on Scottish issues relentlessly. Her Brexit stance eminates solely from there, not from what the PM or the EU think.

Therefore, she can never be seen as a dissenting voice. Because nearly 62% of Scottish voters last June agreed with her ( and Davidson, Dugdale, Rennie and Harvie ). Hardly Sturgeon's fault three of those leaders have since flip flopped and dropped their own principles.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

It's the strength of the SNP which is the biggest hindrance to the main opposition party to the Tories : namely Labour.

I think it's an awful lot more complicated than that but Shakey is right about one thing - it was the dismal performance of Labour and it's second-rate politicians in Scotland that opened the door for the SNP to become stronger.

As has been repeatedly pointed out, the SNP are not a unified party in terms of beliefs, they're actually an alliance of several blocks from quite a wide range on the political spectrum that happen to be unified by a handful of issues - mostly at the moment Indy and/or the EU.

- Tartan Tories.... conservative with a small c farming constituencies in the highlands and north east that used to vote for the actual Tories

- Centrists.... Middle class & relatively cosmopolitan city dwellers that used to vote Lib Dem and New Labour, possibly even a few that would have supported Cameron's Conservatives - attracted by the SNP's strong pro EU stance and centrist policies

- Socialists.... The former high-unemployment/low income Labour heartlands in the centre belt dealing with a post de-industrialisation world that has left them behind - very much similar to the North of England - and that used to be staunch Labour heartlands

What they're all united over is that they see the SNP as being the only party that will argue Scotland's interests first - even if they can't always agree what Scotland's interests actually are - hence the endless SNP centrist compromise positions.

There is absolutely an argument that if Scotland ever actually got Indy, SNP support would splinter rapidly into the traditional parties, and the political future up here would be a string of coalitions and minority governments.

What the SNP do have in the meantime however is a strong leadership that is very good at imposing party discipline and message. And a compromise set of policies that ends up being quite centrist as a result of keeping those various wings of the party happy.

In terms of other parties....

The Tories had quite a resurgence at the last election with Ruth Davidson (and to a lesser extent Cameron's more centrist views) detoxifying the brand fairly successfully - but the Brexit vote and current Westminster hard right Tory resurgence will scupper that.

Labour lost many of their centrist, cosmopolitan, formerly New Labour supporting city voters here to the SNP under Ed Milliband (and locally under the spectacularly disliked Murphy during the indyref) and lost the rest under Corbyn. They're not coming back until the hard left is expelled from control of the Labour party.

The Lib Dems lost a lot of support during the Tory alliance - but still push close to the SNP or Tories in second place through large parts of the North - they're a natural second home for the pro-EU crowd and also the centrist city dwellers, but so of course are the SNP up here. The Lib-Dem resurgence currently underway in the remain-voting parts of England, along with a bit of repositioning away from Clegg's legacy may help them re-establish some support - but I suspect it's not going to be really significant unless the SNP spectacularly self-destruct which at the moment appears unlikely.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

But riding over the top of all of that micro-detail is a large macro-factor - the elephant in the room so to speak.

The 45% that supported Indy have broadly unified behind the SNP and that won't change any time soon.

The 55% that supported staying in the UK are split between 3 other parties and that won't change any time soon.

Under first past the post that means an SNP government for the foreseeable future.

The Brexit vote has caused a bit of churn among the Scottish electorate - rural fishermen that were pro-Indy have swung to pro-UK now that the UK is leaving the EU - whereas a chunk of the middle classes that were pro-UK have swung to pro-Indy now the UK is leaving the EU.

But the two factors have at the moment been almost identical in size and therefore cancelled each other out - 12% swung one way, 13% swung the other - leaving the headline poll results about the same.

If however Sturgeon decides to go for Indy based on EEA rather than EU membership - ie we get to keep all the single market and free movement stuff and also control of fishing grounds - then it would likely push support for Indy over the 50% mark.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

And as a final point.... there is a lesson in all of the above about single issue politics for England - The Brexit campaign has caused a semi-permanent division in English politics - you may not have seen the outcome yet as there hasn't been an election since - but trust me it's already happened.

The electorate has been divided by a single huge issue and it will stay divided by that single huge issue. There will be no acceptance - no coming together - and no reuniting in English politics for a very long time to come.

If one pro-EU party can get the minority of remain voters to unite behind them whilst the others split the leave vote - I wouldn't be surprised to see a radical change at the next GE.

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And as a final point.... there is a lesson in all of the above about single issue politics for England - The Brexit campaign has caused a semi-permanent division in English politics - you may not have seen the outcome yet as there hasn't been an election since - but trust me it's already happened.
...

The Brexit referendum was essentially just a value laden question with very very limited options.

As such, the result was bound to be 'interpreted' by a wide range of different interest groups all claiming it has caused this or that.

It's just as possible it has revealed underlying divisions which were already there.

elantan

I think your right Hamish, I think the Lib Dems have worked this out as well, they may have figured out a way that people will forgive them ( or at least accept) previous stances that changed with power.

Politics is exciting and sometimes exasperating time in the UK just now ... in some ways I think it's great to be alive just now ... in others I kinda wish I was reading about it from a history book

kabayiri

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Your picture is far too wide. The only thing Sturgeon needs to concern herself with is what Scottish voters think. Constitutional politics is the driving force behind most of Scottish politics at the moment, and has been accelerating in importance since 2011 to the point it now defines it completely.
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Nope.

Sturgeon has to sell iScotland as a compelling proposition to the EU27, otherwise they are not going to risk an early engagement are they?

Until they accept iScotland, there is no SM access for Scotland. It's simple. No amount of local self belief will change that.

Certain EU countries (and even regions like Bavaria) want a good deal out of the future trading relationship with post-Brexit UK. So why would they seek to get things off on the wrong foot just to attract a relatively small new country?

Why should this new small country jump the accession queue over the other applicants? Do you think Turkey consider Scotland a more important potential new member than itself?

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And as a final point.... there is a lesson in all of the above about single issue politics for England - The Brexit campaign has caused a semi-permanent division in English politics - you may not have seen the outcome yet as there hasn't been an election since - but trust me it's already happened.

The electorate has been divided by a single huge issue and it will stay divided by that single huge issue. There will be no acceptance - no coming together - and no reuniting in English politics for a very long time to come.

If one pro-EU party can get the minority of remain voters to unite behind them whilst the others split the leave vote - I wouldn't be surprised to see a radical change at the next GE.

a very powerful argument for why we should never have joined the EU.

beecher2

Anyone seen more detail on Jason Allardyce's tweet this morning?
Panelbase poll for Sunday Times Scotland finds Labour facing meltdown in local elections and majority believes independence is inevitable

CLAPTON

beecher2 wrote: »

Anyone seen more detail on Jason Allardyce's tweet this morning?
Panelbase poll for Sunday Times Scotland finds Labour facing meltdown in local elections and majority believes independence is inevitable

clearly dithering Nicola should stop dithering and go for Iscotland now.