The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

All those articles are talking about a UK Hard Brexit. And to my recollection it wasn't the SNP that produced the research on job losses.

As always the figures are probably somewhere in the middle. But no one really knows until it happens do they ? And at some point you're going to have to realise and remember that independence is a cornerstone of SNP policy. However, it was Scottish voters who put the SNP in power and voted Remain a few months ago. You keep losing sight of the fact that the SNP didn't get where they are by magic.

I'm well aware that they were voted for.

Do you think Brexit will harm Scottish employment figures more than Independence? Based on the evidence, not feelings.

If you come to the same conclusion as me you'll see that the SNP are indeed lying about the threat of Brexit being the largest threat to Scottish jobs. Since the largest threat would actually be - as you say - the cornerstone of SNP policy which is Independence.

So they are advocating for higher job losses, to offset job losses 10 times smaller.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

We can talk about these issues.

But lets not pretend that this is what you were talking about regarding repatriation of powers such as fishing and agriculture and abolishing all human rights with no identical replacement being forced on Holyrood by Westminster. No one has ever suggested either of those two scenarios. You claimed they did.

Lets just leave that topic alone and agree to disagree.

I was suggesting that Westminster aren't exactly clarifying where these powers will go despite being repeatedly asked.

A British Bill of Rights is unlikely to be identical, and in any case the point was that Holyrood wouldn't want it replaced at ALL. Same with Brexit legislation. Never mind though, glad you've finally seen what I've been talking about regarding legislative consent and Westminster having to impose legislation over Holyrood's wishes.

Messy stuff.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I'm well aware that they were voted for.

Do you think Brexit will harm Scottish employment figures more than Independence? Based on the evidence, not feelings.

If you come to the same conclusion as me you'll see that the SNP are indeed lying about the threat of Brexit being the largest threat to Scottish jobs. Since the largest threat would actually be - as you say - the cornerstone of SNP policy which is Independence.

So they are advocating for higher job losses, to offset job losses 10 times smaller.

Your first article is from 2014. The second from 2016. The first article doesn't take Brexit into account for obvious reasons.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Your first article is from 2014. The second from 2016. The first article doesn't take Brexit into account for obvious reasons.

Well it's an analysis on the integration of the Scottish economy with the rest of the UK. That will not have changed dramatically in 2 years, according to Scottish government statistics domestic market growth has been stronger than your export growth. So arguably the dependence on the domestic market has grown.

In the event of Brexit, losing 80,000 jobs is minuscule by comparison. Even if we assume that the forecast in 2014 on the dependency of the Scottish economy on the rest of the UK is 80% incorrect. It's STILL 200,000 jobs. More than twice, with an 80% error rate.

Come on!!!

For once!!!

Just accept it's a crap idea and the SNP lied about Brexit being the biggest threat, the biggest threat is the SNP's raison d'etre.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Well it's an analysis on the integration of the Scottish economy with the rest of the UK. That will not have changed dramatically in 2 years, according to Scottish government statistics domestic market growth has been stronger than your export growth. So arguably the dependence on the domestic market has grown.

In the event of Brexit, losing 80,000 jobs is minuscule by comparison. Even if we assume that the forecast in 2014 on the dependency of the Scottish economy on the rest of the UK is 80% incorrect. It's STILL 200,000 jobs. More than twice, with an 80% error rate.

Come on!!!

For once!!!

Just accept it's a crap idea and the SNP lied about Brexit being the biggest threat, the biggest threat is the SNP's raison d'etre.

Well the first problem I have is with this :-

The amount of mistakes coming out of the SNP of late must be distressing to the pro-indy supporters.

Because it was the same institute that produced the report in 2014, as the one in 2016 re job losses.

so the competitiveness of supplying firms will increase to partially offset the loss of demand. In our – the Fraser of Allander Institute's – analysis,

<--- first article

Fraser of Allander report: Brexit could cost 80,000 jobs

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37564729 <---- second article.

The second problem I have is discounting the Single Market. Which the leaving of would be the primary driver of any UK job losses according to reports. Sturgeon has reiterated many times now that a soft Brexit for the UK as a whole is what she would like to see happening ( as have other devolved govt's and many industries ).

Should Scotland remain in the Single Market, and rUK not, then safe to say that you can rip up that 2014 report as the stampede to the door in terms of jobs and investments would be in the opposite direction. There's also that of the most obvious statement, which is that businesses and jobs wouldn't be moving if they're still making a profit. Why would they ? Many companies work and operate cross border or in different countries of geographical locations. Why on earth would Scotland/rUK be any different in that respect ?

I didn't believe a million jobs were at risk then because companies work across multiple borders and countries as long as there is a profit to be made. And I don't now. Especially now in the circumstances surrounding a Brexit, a possible removal of rUK from the Single Market and possible trade barriers.

Never at any point during the first independence referendum did the SNP advocate leaving the Single Market. And any second referendum will be based on staying within it.

Prof Graeme Roy, director of the Strathclyde University institute, said the "detailed assessment" had found Brexit was likely to have "a significant negative impact on the Scottish economy".However, the report noted that "throughout all scenarios, the estimated negative impact of Brexit on the rest of the UK is greater than it is on Scotland, in terms of GDP, employment and other measures".
This is because the rest of the UK's economy has greater exposure to EU trade than Scotland's, while the financial relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK dampens certain effects.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37564729 Maybe it's yourself who might want to start admitting that Brexit itself is a crap idea.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Well the first problem I have is with this :- Because it was the same institute that produced the report in 2014, as the one in 2016 re job losses.

<--- first article

Fraser of Allander report: Brexit could cost 80,000 jobs

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37564729 <---- second article.

The second problem I have is discounting the Single Market. Which the leaving of would be the primary driver of any UK job losses according to reports. Sturgeon has reiterated many times now that a soft Brexit for the UK as a whole is what she would like to see happening ( as have other devolved govt's and many industries ).

Should Scotland remain in the Single Market, and rUK not, then safe to say that you can rip up that 2014 report as the stampede to the door in terms of jobs and investments would be in the opposite direction. There's also that of the most obvious statement, which is that businesses and jobs wouldn't be moving if they're still making a profit. Why would they ? Many companies work and operate cross border or in different countries of geographical locations. Why on earth would Scotland/rUK be any different in that respect ?

I didn't believe a million jobs were at risk then because companies work across multiple borders and countries as long as there is a profit to be made. And I don't now. Especially now in the circumstances surrounding a Brexit, a possible removal of rUK from the Single Market and possible trade barriers.

Never at any point during the first independence referendum did the SNP advocate leaving the Single Market. And any second referendum will be based on staying within it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37564729 Maybe it's yourself who might want to start admitting that Brexit itself is a crap idea.

There's a whole other thread for Brexit. Lets discuss that there.

The likelihood of Scotland being allowed to stay in the single market whilst the rest of the UK leaves is nil. Sturgeon knows it, you know it and I know it.

The Spanish have said it, Tusk has said it, I think I recall Junker has said it. The Belgians will more than likely agree. What the Spanish have come out with lately completely flies in the face of this reverse Greenland idea, not that it was ever possible in the first place, but Spain has basically said no. They also called BS on your Brexit ministers claims that you were in talks. Another lie?

This reverse Greenland idea would be allowing a part of the UK an EU a-la-carte, which they've expressly said will not be happening. So unless they offer an EU a-la-carte to the whole of the UK, it's not happening is it?

So... if we have a hard brexit which is the only situation in which an indy ref would be possible according to Nicola Sturgeon, that means that there will be trade barriers between the EU and the UK.

That means that an independent Scotland in the EU and out of the UK will suffer the [STRIKE]loss[/STRIKE] risk of losing more jobs than the would save by remaining in the EU. Regardless of whether or not you believe it to be 1,000,000 jobs, or if the report is 80% inaccurate, 200,000 jobs. It's still dramatically more than 80,000.

So again.

- Reverse Greenland, Spain allegedly says no. Most of the EU top brass say no.

- Scotland in the UK and out of the EU = 80,000 [STRIKE]job losses[/STRIKE] jobs at risk.

- Scotland in the EU and out of the UK = 1,000,000 [STRIKE]job losses[/STRIKE] jobs at risk (or 200,000 if we assume the report is 80% inaccurate)

I appreciate you've tried to debunk the point. But can we just agree on the logical, reasonable, evidence based point that Independence is the biggest threat to Scottish jobs, not Brexit, and that Independence is the very reason for being for the SNP. They are therefore the biggest threat to Scottish jobs by perusing Scottish independence.

Yes/No?

Edit: p.s. no one is denying that the rest of the UK would experience a greater impact than Scotland in the event of hard brexit, but that's not what we're discussing - lets stay on topic, i.e. Scottish independence.

kabayiri

sss555s wrote: »

It's the UK government that has moved on. The UK government has cut subsidy's and is against onshore windfarms making the UK one of the most expensive places to set up a wind farm.
Windfarms are still a good growing sector worldwide.
...

But how does it deliver competitive edge? If you generate electricity, then what? You're not going to be exporting wind turbines are you?

I've said before that transmission costs are likely to dominate where future wind farms get sited.

People may be benign to wind farms (except Trump!) but they don't like pylons.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

There's a whole other thread for Brexit. Lets discuss that there.

The likelihood of Scotland being allowed to stay in the single market whilst the rest of the UK leaves is nil. Sturgeon knows it, you know it and I know it.

The Spanish have said it, Tusk has said it, I think I recall Junker has said it. The Belgians will more than likely agree. What the Spanish have come out with lately completely flies in the face of this reverse Greenland idea, not that it was ever possible in the first place, but Spain has basically said no. They also called BS on your Brexit ministers claims that you were in talks. Another lie?

Even the Telegraph article goes to great pains to say that this isn't the Spanish govt's position. As for who the Scottish Govt has spoken to or not, well another area of media and Scottish Conservative spin.

She also acknowledged that she had met numerous foreign officials in recent weeks in order to further Scotland's case.It follows claims in Friday's Daily Telegraph that Spain would oppose any plan for Scotland to retain single market access.
Ms Hyslop said: "I've met the Spanish ambassador twice in the last two weeks, I've met most of the ambassadors and a number of ministers in UK capitals as well.
"Nobody is negotiating just now. The UK isn't negotiating because they don't have a position. The EU are not negotiating because the UK doesn't have a position.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38096710

This reverse Greenland idea would be allowing a part of the UK an EU a-la-carte, which they've expressly said will not be happening. So unless they offer an EU a-la-carte to the whole of the UK, it's not happening is it?

So... if we have a hard brexit which is the only situation in which an indy ref would be possible according to Nicola Sturgeon, that means that there will be trade barriers between the EU and the UK.

EFTA/EEA. Scotland is free to negotiate with rUK directly in that case outwith the EU ( should rUK get themselves a truly terrible deal which would do great domestic trade damage). Also all comments you quote are of a Scotland within the UK. An independent Scotland is a different prospect, even for Spain.

That means that an independent Scotland in the EU and out of the UK will suffer the [STRIKE]loss[/STRIKE] risk of losing more jobs than the would save by remaining in the EU. Regardless of whether or not you believe it to be 1,000,000 jobs, or if the report is 80% inaccurate, 200,000 jobs. It's still dramatically more than 80,000.

So again.

- Reverse Greenland, Spain allegedly says no. Most of the EU top brass say no.

- Scotland in the UK and out of the EU = 80,000 [STRIKE]job losses[/STRIKE] jobs at risk.

- Scotland in the EU and out of the UK = 1,000,000 [STRIKE]job losses[/STRIKE] jobs at risk (or 200,000 if we assume the report is 80% inaccurate)

I appreciate you've tried to debunk the point. But can we just agree on the logical, reasonable, evidence based point that Independence is the biggest threat to Scottish jobs, not Brexit, and that Independence is the very reason for being for the SNP. They are therefore the biggest threat to Scottish jobs by perusing Scottish independence.

Yes/No?

Which nullifies all of this above. And let's not forget that Single Market access has already either been assured to Nissan, or else compensated for behind closed doors. Seems there are some that do get 'special deals' when jobs in the North of England are at stake ? Why not for Scottish jobs/industry at risk due to a Brexit ?

Edit: p.s. no one is denying that the rest of the UK would experience a greater impact than Scotland in the event of hard brexit, but that's not what we're discussing - lets stay on topic, i.e. Scottish independence.

So you admit a hard Brexit would be a very bad idea, the UK would be worse off and hit harder than Scotland, and your only answer to that is that Scotland should stick with the UK anyway ? There are only BAD choices ahead with a Hard Brexit in terms of Scotland. It will come down to what people see as the least worst option. So one has to compare Brexit effects in different areas.

Also, there comes a time where people politically will say enough is enough, we didn't vote for any of this. Some things go beyond the bounds of acceptance, one of them being dictated to and forced to go along with everything just by virtue of the fact the neighbouring country happens to have a much larger population. The comments under both that Independent article and the BBC article covering the Supreme Court case are atrocious.

As time goes on I personally think May will go for a soft Brexit. Because if she's after something that ( hard ) Leave voters will be celebrating in the streets over, then she'd have said by now. Keeping tight lipped isn't because she's scared of remainers, it's leavers she's terrified of upsetting by laying out her plans.

Thrugelmir

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Another lie?

No just spin. Once the momemtum is lost. Then the dream is over. Sturgeon like Salmond is playing a single card. With it goes her credibility, both at home and internationally.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No just spin. Once the momemtum is lost. Then the dream is over. Sturgeon like Salmond is playing a single card. With it goes her credibility, both at home and internationally.

Momentum is lost ? Why it's just starting to ramp up again.

Arron Banks ‏@Arron_banks 4h4 hours ago It's time the English & Welsh had a referendum on ejecting Scotland. You are over indulged both politically and in monetary terms

Arron Banks ‏@Arron_banks
By the way , you had a referendum and the Scottish didn't have the balls to leave - why shouldn't the English & Welsh get to vote on you !

Lots of very supportive comments from Scots on these tweets ! ..And the Yes 2 launch and cross party conference. It's only just starting.





Regardless of the Single Market or any other issue that comes out of Brexit, at least 45 % of Scots voters already want out of the UK no matter what happens.. even if the Brexit vote hadn't happened at all.

It's 10 - 20% of unsure voters in the middle who are all to play for. The SNP, The Greens and the Yes campaign will play very hard for those in the next year or two.