The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

Just remind me, when did the EU guarantee Scotland would be able to remain in the EU?

Single Market if you choose to look at it that way. EFTA/EEA/EU.

kabayiri

Shakethedisease wrote: »

....
Or, Scotland leaves the UK, and has the status quo of full unfettered EU trade as is, Westminster no longer able to impose laws regardless of Holyrood/Scotland's voter's wishes and total control over all economic areas. With only trade with rUK to worry about, who in turn is already facing years of uncertainty over trade with the EU ( inc Scotland ).

Hmmmm... difficult choice.

It's great if you believe in the 'status quo', or even the future direction of the EU. But what if you don't?

Direct membership may come at a price. What if there are calls for Scotland to join the Euro?

If the Euro fails as a project and the EU breaks into pieces, do you think it possible to walk away unscathed?

I doubt any of us here know what is going to happen, but selling independence as a choice between 2 risky options is going to be tough.

TrickyTree83

I've been through the available options in some detail in a post quite some pages ago.

Both options entail large unknowns. The 'oppression' you speak of is also hypothetical, so much of what you've said in your binary option is hypothetical.

Which is why we should stick to the facts.

If the damage between the EU and the UK trade will be say 25% of all trade between the two, that has an impact in Scotland of 25% of a total of 11%. If iScotland were in the EU, then the 25% impact would be relative to the 64% of iScotland trade with rUK.

Whatever the percentage impact it will be greater on Scotland if you were independent and within the EU and not in control of your own trade arrangements.

Edit: I wanted to embolden the point which is the fact since the 25% figure was also a hypothetical, considering that if the impact was 100%, Scotland would still fare better within the UK.

Conrad

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're speculating. I'd agree with the far right point, but I'd include the UK to a degree in that to be honest. And anyway, Tricky was talking about trade rather than political issues. He seems to think that this will take precedence over all else. Even though both you and I know this isn't the case, both the politics and the economics matter.

Running through your entire narrative is the assumption being inside the EU equates with more certainty than being outside like say Japan or S Korea that sell very successfully into it.


I don't see how you can presume remaining inside means uncertainty will be less. Greece almost took down the whole thing, so what about the other risks - Italy, Portugal, Spain et al? Anyone of these could drag Scotland down a fiscal plug hole

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Single Market if you choose to look at it that way. EFTA/EEA/EU.

Ah so they didn't then.
Thanks for clarifying.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

It's great if you believe in the 'status quo', or even the future direction of the EU. But what if you don't?

Direct membership may come at a price. What if there are calls for Scotland to join the Euro?

If the Euro fails as a project and the EU breaks into pieces, do you think it possible to walk away unscathed?

I doubt any of us here know what is going to happen, but selling independence as a choice between 2 risky options is going to be tough.

But far easier than last time round where it was the status quo of the UK ( within the EU ) and the uncertainty of an independent Scotland ( ? within the EU ). 'Calls' for Scotland to join the Euro, very unlikely given the nations that don't use it and Scotland doesn't meet the criteria. That discussion is years off.

Two risky options. Only one with the the Tories in charge and pushing things through Holyrood which aren't voted for nor wanted. Politically toxic.

But you're right none of us know what's going to happen. That's why is good that Sturgeon is setting out her stall and detailing red lines now rather than later. None of these red lines are certainties, but absolutely must be there and within what's acceptable. Also should resemble at least some similarity to what Scots actually voted for ( which was not to leave the EU ). This is why EFTA/EEA options are also being explored within the UK. And no doubt outside of the UK too.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Shakethedisease wrote: »

But you're right none of us know what's going to happen. That's why is good that Sturgeon is setting out her stall and detailing red lines now rather than later. None of these red lines are certainties, but absolutely must be there and within what's acceptable. Also should resemble at least some similarity to what Scots actually voted for ( which was not to leave the EU ). This is why EFTA/EEA options are also being explored within the UK. And no doubt outside of the UK too.

By using more lies?

NICOLA Sturgeon’s Brexit minister has been accused of peddling “fantasies” after making a series of misleading claims to an audience of diplomats in Brussels.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/NEWS/14921358.SNP_Brexit_minister___39_on_flight_of_fancy__39__in_Brussels/?commentSort=oldest

And from the Express:

Ms Sturgeon’s desperate attempts to secure a special deal for Scotland has so far been ignored by other EU states, who insist they will only negotiate with the UK as a whole.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/735212/nicola-sturgeon-brexit-michael-russel-eu-european-union-independence

Care to explain exactly where "EFTA/EEA options are also being explored within the UK. And no doubt outside of the UK too." ?
Evidence please, not tweets & blogs.
Since you can't explore options alone; it takes other EFTA/EEA members to provide at least some input.
Otherwise all you have is yet more meaningless speculation.
Which - let's be honest here - we're getting used to seeing from pro-SNP supporters in this thread.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I've been through the available options in some detail in a post quite some pages ago.

Both options entail large unknowns. The 'oppression' you speak of is also hypothetical, so much of what you've said in your binary option is hypothetical.

Which is why we should stick to the facts.

If the damage between the EU and the UK trade will be say 25% of all trade between the two, that has an impact in Scotland of 25% of a total of 11%. If iScotland were in the EU, then the 25% impact would be relative to the 64% of iScotland trade with rUK.

Whatever the percentage impact it will be greater on Scotland if you were independent and within the EU and not in control of your own trade arrangements.

Edit: I wanted to embolden the point which is the fact since the 25% figure was also a hypothetical, considering that if the impact was 100%, Scotland would still fare better within the UK.

I didn't mention oppression. I mentioned facts, the discussions surrounding which are already happening.

Indeed, no such “UK single market” currently exists and, in the event of hard Brexit, establishing an effective and lasting one would entail a large expansion of the reserved powers vested in Westminster. This would see Holyrood lose some of its current powers and miss out on those “repatriated” from Brussels.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/14921325.Beyond_Brexit__Treat_talk_of____UK_single_market____with_caution/

Westminster warned against Brexit deal on Scottish fishing

In a follow-up letter, Mr Ewing wrote: “One of the Scottish industry’s key concerns, as well as mine, is that the UK may consider trading away access to the Scottish zone on a long-term or permanent basis. This would not be acceptable to Scottish Ministers.
“I am now seeking your assurance… that the UK will not give or negotiate away any permanent or long-term access to foreign vessels to the Scottish zone.
“Further, that the Scottish Government will be decision-makers in the process relating to the UK approach on fishing and not simply co-consulted.”

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/14921342.Westminster_warned_against_Brexit_deal_on_Scottish_fishing/

All of these matters are coming up and coming down the line in the next year or so. Best start reading up a bit more Tricky. Westminster is gearing up to take power back from Holyrood once we leave the EU IF we leave the Single Market and impose other legislation Holyrood doesn't want. Sure to go down well....

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I didn't mention oppression. I mentioned facts, the discussions surrounding which are already happening.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/14921325.Beyond_Brexit__Treat_talk_of____UK_single_market____with_caution/

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/14921342.Westminster_warned_against_Brexit_deal_on_Scottish_fishing/

All of these matters are coming up and coming down the line in the next year or so. Best start reading up a bit more Tricky. Westminster is gearing up to take power back from Holyrood once we leave the EU IF we leave the Single Market and impose other legislation Holyrood doesn't want. Sure to go down well....

This is just speculation.

An imagined affront.

If Nicola made these points during the discussion on Brexit, and I would hope she did rather than harp on about independence and red lines, then you will find that the UK government will not do as you and others speculate unless there is good reason as the UK (all of us) to do so.

Can we get back to facts? What's your response to what I said about your trade situation?

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

By using more lies?

http://www.heraldscotland.com/NEWS/14921358.SNP_Brexit_minister___39_on_flight_of_fancy__39__in_Brussels/?commentSort=oldest

And from the Express:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/735212/nicola-sturgeon-brexit-michael-russel-eu-european-union-independence

Care to explain exactly where "EFTA/EEA options are also being explored within the UK. And no doubt outside of the UK too." ?
Evidence please, not tweets & blogs.
Since you can't explore options alone; it takes other EFTA/EEA members to provide at least some input.
Otherwise all you have is yet more meaningless speculation.
Which - let's be honest here - we're getting used to seeing from pro-SNP supporters in this thread.

Do you not read the news ?

Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed that the Scottish government is considering a Norway-style model for keeping Scotland in the EU single market.The first minister told MSPs that the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and European Economic Area (EEA) models were being looked at.
The Scottish government is examining possible ways of maintaining Scotland's links with the EU.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37993028

Salmonds also in the news floating about in EFTA headquarters and Scottish reps have been in Liechtenstein.

Liechtenstein's foreign minister, Aurelia Frick, said Scottish representatives were "coming and visiting Lichtenstein, and trying to find out especially about the functioning of the European Economic Area that allows Liechtenstein, Iceland and Norway to be part of the EU single market".

Looks like the Scottish Govt and MP's have been quietly getting a case together to present to May in the next few weeks. And potentially to put forward to Scots in the event of a second ref, if rUK/media keeps shouting loudly about hard borders and choosing between rUK and EU trade ( as they have been doing already).