The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

Hamish can I ask if you know others who feel the same way as you, that is to say were no voters but would now vote yes?

The timing is very difficult, and it is a huge decision for Nicola Sturgeon. I don't envy her.

More than all the fisherman and their families who will be waiting to get their industry back?

Probably not.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

We cannot risk being caught out and it'll take time to gear up for a referendum.

Nothing to stop the Scotgov triggering Indyref on the basis it'll be withdrawn if the UK stays in the Single Market.

That will focus minds in Westminster.

Although in fairness - the prize of full EU membership might just be worth going for anyway - after all how can we trust a future Tory govt to keep the UK in the single market? They can withdraw form the EEA/EFTA at any time with just a 12 month notice.

So perhaps a guarantee that Scotland will never be taken out of the Single Market against our will might be required if we do go down that road.

I posted the below right after the Brexit vote and got pelters for it.:o

But imo the Scottish Govt have always intended to avoid being part of Article 50 negotiations altogether, and carry on in essence taking the UK's place. What the EU says to Scotland when Article 50 is invoked will swing things, but one thing is clear is that if Scotland is taken out of Article 50 negotiations on the basis that it's just voted for independence. Then the substance of the matter from Scotland's point of view becomes more what the terms for remaining are.

Paradoxically, at first sight a Brexit could address all these difficulties. The gist of the reasoning would be as follows: if the UK as a whole votes to leave the EU, while in Scotland a majority votes to stay, the procedure of Article 50 TEU could be used to allow the UK (minus Scotland) to withdraw from the EU, while Scotland would be entitled to pursue the UK’s EU Membership. Both issues would of course have to be negotiated by the (still unified) UK government. While the Article 50 TEU solution would not do away with all legal and political obstacles, it would be less uncertain than the options of going through Article 48 or 49 TEU...

...Although Article 50 TEU only prescribes the procedure for a Member State (e.g. the UK) to leave the EU, this provision can also serve to govern the withdrawal of only a part of a state (e.g. England, Wales and Northern-Ireland) and as a legal basis to keep an independent Scotland in the EU in the context of a Brexit – under the condition that there is a political consensus for this among the three parties involved (i.e. the EU, Scotland and the UK minus Scotland). The negotiations foreseen in Article 50 TEU would then have two main aims: defining the EU’s relationship with the UK (minus Scotland) post-Brexit and adapting the terms of the UK’s EU membership to Scotland (i.e. adjusting them to Scotland’s size). While under international law, Scotland would become a new legal entity, in the EU legal order it could remain being regarded as the Member State that joined in 1973.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/03/14/a-brexit-could-make-it-easier-for-scotland-to-join-the-eu-as-an-independent-state/

I think the above is what the Scottish Govt has been aiming for. However, at the moment Sturgeon's going to have to exhaust every other option there is first in order ( as someone else put it in a comment somewhere ) to 'show her working' to Scottish Labour, Lib Dems and swithering voters who think there is still some chance of Scotland staying both in the UK and the EU.

The EU is going to have to have to make it look like a real possibility though. Before any referendum. Hopefully that's what Sturgeon's visit's were about. Who knows. :cool:

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I posted the below right after the Brexit vote and got pelters for it.:o

But imo the Scottish Govt have always intended to avoid being part of Article 50 negotiations altogether, and carry on in essence taking the UK's place. What the EU says to Scotland when Article 50 is invoked will swing things, but one thing is clear is that if Scotland is taken out of Article 50 negotiations on the basis that it's just voted for independence. Then the substance of the matter from Scotland's point of view becomes more what the terms for remaining are.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/03/14/a-brexit-could-make-it-easier-for-scotland-to-join-the-eu-as-an-independent-state/

I think the above is what the Scottish Govt has been aiming for. However, at the moment Sturgeon's going to have to exhaust every other option there is first in order ( as someone else put it in a comment somewhere ) to 'show her working' to Scottish Labour, Lib Dems and swithering voters who think there is still some chance of Scotland staying both in the UK and the EU.

The EU is going to have to have to make it look like a real possibility though. Before any referendum. Hopefully that's what Sturgeon's visit's were about. Who knows. :cool:

this is totally false and deliberating misleading

The SNP are TOTALLY committed to Iscotland: the ONLY issue is tactics.
brexit or not, the SNP want iscotland.

all your nonsense may or may not help to persuade scottish voters to get upto the magic 60%

if you want Nicola to do something useful then she should be open with the scottish people about the currency situation
firstly because it treates the scottish people like grownups (even if you don't agree that they are.
secondly because its better tactically do have dthe discussion now rather than during the referendum debates.

from an SNP point of view, tactics and timing are the ONLY issues. lies and faux concerns come as standard

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

As you wish. Like I said at least I can open the eyes of the neutral/causal reader even if you're intent on being myopic.

Oh and yes, if you see anti-Scottish rhetoric starting to make the rounds, it's because the SNP have successfully sown division in the Union. Top job.

Don't remember Scots or English hating on each other in such numbers pre-SNP. Historically it was always banter like it is with the Welsh.

I think maybe you're beginning to go down the road other's go on this thread and start ascribing everything you perceive to be bad politically in Scotland to the SNP and the SNP alone. If you could keep in mind that they didn't get there by magic... their politics is something that the majority of Scotland vote for in elections...AND that Scottish voters aren't complete idiots or drooling gullible fools then we all might get somewhere. The SNP are who many Scottish voters actually want in charge. Especially in times like these. I really shudder to think what powers and things Dugdale, Rennie or Davidson would be signing away on Scotland's behalf in the next few years if they had the reigns ( goodbye devolved fishing and agriculture etc ).

We do understand the points your trying to make. Honestly we do. However, imo we cannot take sentiment and political arguments out of the debate altogether. They are just as crucial a factor in voting as economics is.

Many of us here have been reading Scottish based articles from McWhirter, McKenna, Massie, Deerin, Rifkind and Farquarson for years. The first two notably journeyed from No to Yes during the first referendum. Neither are anything to do with the SNP ( McKenna has a very critical of the SNP article in the Guardian today and McWhirter often does the same )... but Yes voters all the same.

It's an interesting turn of events seeing others starting to shrug their shoulders too and say 'I'm not sure I can make a case for the Union anymore' in terms of how they feel about it compared to only two years ago. Definitely worth a mention here.

You are also right that the economics matter greatly too. You can be black and white about it though considering what the UK is about to do and there are SO many variables and outcomes even from that.

kabayiri

Hamish is a dubious SNP supporter, in that he does sometimes answer questions.

He believes the Euro is the end goal currency.

He believes the SNP should push for a referendum before A50.

At least he recognises the pragmatic issues surrounding timing.

I think the SNP should call their indy ref 2. This gives PM May complete freedom to ignore any SNP input when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

Only those committed to the Union should be involved in negotiations about the future relationship between the Union and the EU.

Indy ref 2 would give me an opportunity to have a bet as well. Does anybody know a bookies which is run by an independence fanatic?

Shakethedisease

CLAPTON wrote: »

this is totally false and deliberating misleading

The SNP are TOTALLY committed to Iscotland: the ONLY issue is tactics.
brexit or not, the SNP want iscotland.

all your nonsense may or may not help to persuade scottish voters to get upto the magic 60%

if you want Nicola to do something useful then she should be open with the scottish people about the currency situation
firstly because it treates the scottish people like grownups (even if you don't agree that they are.
secondly because its better tactically do have dthe discussion now rather than during the referendum debates.

from an SNP point of view, tactics and timing are the ONLY issues. lies and faux concerns come as standard

Brexit has forced the SNP's hand. And in all honestly, if the SNP had shrugged their shoulders and said 'ah well' that's us out of the EU. It is likely that if another party had stood up and said 'no way, let's make sure we stay in the EU/Single market'... that a good million or so Scots voters would just be voting for them instead. I know I would be considering it ( after cutting up my SNP membership card ).

kabayiri

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Brexit has forced the SNP's hand. And in all honestly, if the SNP had shrugged their shoulders and said 'ah well' that's us out of the EU. It is likely that if another party had stood up and said 'no way, let's make sure we stay in the EU/Single market'... that a good million or so Scots voters would just be voting for them instead. I know I would be considering it ( after cutting up my SNP membership card ).

No you wouldn't.

When it comes to voting on EU matters, you Scots are lukewarm. A third of you can't be bothered.

It's just the SNP pretending that the EU is important to the Scottish psyche. It was clearly far more important to Londoners.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

What the EU says to Scotland when Article 50 is invoked will swing things,

You've said this on a number of occasions. The EU isn't going to say anything. There's no grounds for any formal collective discussion with Scotland.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Thrugelmir wrote: »

You've said this on a number of occasions. The EU isn't going to say anything. There's no grounds for any formal collective discussion with Scotland.

SNP tactics; why let fact spoil a debate?

It has been irrefutably proven that the EU cannot and will not have ANY talks with Scotland while Scotland remains a member of the EU.
Numerous times in this thread alone.
Just don't expect these posters to accept that.
It doesn't fit with their tactics of deception, deceit and division.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

Hamish is a dubious SNP supporter, in that he does sometimes answer questions.

He believes the Euro is the end goal currency.

He believes the SNP should push for a referendum before A50.

At least he recognises the pragmatic issues surrounding timing.

I think the SNP should call their indy ref 2. This gives PM May complete freedom to ignore any SNP input when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

Only those committed to the Union should be involved in negotiations about the future relationship between the Union and the EU.

Indy ref 2 would give me an opportunity to have a bet as well. Does anybody know a bookies which is run by an independence fanatic?

Paddy Power has independence odds on if you fancy a flutter 2/5. But alas not on advisory refs.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/scottish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=451400