The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

.string.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'm still not sure how your maths is to be honest. Those polled for the Scotland inside the UK and in the EU no longer count and will have to cast their votes in another category (28%). Why does that make me wrong you haven't said and I'd be grateful if you did ?

Also, this poll was well before the current May Govt revealed how far right the Tories are currently heading.

It seems you have a tendency to disbelieve things you don't like, but then, in all fairness, don't we all ex apt for me if course.

OK - using words, from the information in the chard each person was give the voice of preferred options from four scenarios.

33 + 11 = 44 % chose from the two options that included an independent Scotland

28 + 23 = 51% chose from the two options that included Scotland within the UK

That is very similar to the division of preferences on the independence issue.

The EU Poll was just on the EU.

elantan

Did I hear right that there are plans to protect London from parts of Brexit but not Scotland ? Single market type stuff ?

That ain't going to go down well up here if that's true

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

There will be a proportion of the Yes vote who thought Salmond & Co. were on the level regarding oil prices remaining high, Scotland having a dividend for each household and Scottish streets would be paved in gold.

They were not on the level were they..

This is where you lose about 45% of Scottish voters. For one thing oil prices aren't predictable and we can only say anything about them falling in hindsight. Secondly, and this is the important thing in terms of Salmond 'selling lies'. The White Paper came out at the end of 2013, and was ripped to shreds from about 10 mins after it came out ( Alistair Darling ) until the polls opened almost a year later. Every single media outlet in Scotland ripped it apart mercilessly, as did every single UK media outlet. Internet included. Reams and reams of 'Blow to Salmond' and 'SNP accused' 24/7. Only one solitary Sunday paper was willing to punt anything at all regarding a bit of balance.

Where were all these lies sold and to whom ? The SNP don't have any media support and much of what they put out via social media is supportive of their policies of course. But ultimately very pc and sometimes bordering on bland. There's never any fire and brimstone.

Also, needs remembering that when the referendum was first mooted in 2011 that support stood at 28%. The huge influx of new members and the landslide at Westminster came about only after the referendum. Most voters in the referendum didn't identify with the SNP in the run up to the referendum. Membership stood at about 20,000 and there were only 6 SNP MP's at Westminster. People like myself only got on board with the SNP because of the referendum and the No vote. Not the other way round.

A myriad of sources, mainly online since that's where I live.. sad I know. I would do my best to fact check across sources, that became more difficult over time due to possible associations generating significant bias. So for example, the media may say something, a blog would or a friend or family member, and I would go away and try to find out if it was true and whether or not I liked it or not with regards to the EU. Eventually I would say my vote was 49% Remain 51% Leave, not too far from the actual result itself.

Pouring over the EU website, old news reports (less inclined to bias due to the impending referendum), current reports, tabloids, TV, radio, the ONS website and the data they provide, other similar institutions, CBI, IFS, IMF, my own observations, information from friends of mine who migrated here from the EU, the UK government information, Vote Leave, Grassroots Out, Britain Stronger in Europe, MSE forums, Facebook, Twitter. I watched plenty of debates on Youtube that took place in Universities around the country, which is where I came across Daniel Hannan. Google was my friend for quite a while trying to fact check what these people would say.

It was probably Daniel Hannan's version of events and vision which probably persuaded me the most that leaving was the correct decision, I also still agree with him regarding migration. I don't think he's stupid to support leaving the political union and to say that migration could and perhaps should continue. That single market access (as good as we can get) should be the aim as long as we're still able to go out and strike our own trade deals. Then we're not hamstrung by Italian tomato growers, French sugar farmers, German car manufacturers and any other lobby group from within the EU with their own self interests. Immigration is way down the list for me.

I would say I'm a soft-brexiter, I'd fit in with what Scotland would like and with what business would like. I don't identify with the immigration crowd but I can understand their issues. I just feel that if we were able to maximise our potential that we wouldn't need to be so bothered about migration as everyone would be a winner in the end. The per capita earnings in Norway and Switzerland are much higher than the UK, that's something we can change by following their example.

Not a hard line libertarian, but I definitely have a stripe of libertarian-ism running through me. Free markets, meritocracy, personal responsibility, maximising potential. I would have voted to remain if the EU was able to change significantly, political union and fiscal union between the north, south, east and west of Europe was always going to be problematic. It's now so monolithic that the change they know they need to make will never take place, existing problems will grow into crises and new problems will emerge. They took incorrect decisions along the road of the EU project, it'll never be the same again. For me the EEC as it was would have been good, EEA/EFTA are the best options currently available. Ideally for me it should be a trade union in which business chooses to partake in or not, paid into by all member states. If your business follows the regulations you can sell into the market, if not, then you cannot. In this respect EEA/EFTA is quite a close match.

Thank you for your detailed and informative reply. But I was/am the same when it comes to weighing up Scottish independence. I returned to Scotland in 2009 after living in England for years ( RAF bases with husband and kids ). I was very much out of the loop and voted Lib Dem in 2010. However by the time 2011 came round, I voted SNP for Holyrood but still wasn't really involved. It was finding myself here and replying to a thread on Scotland about a possible future independence ref and whether Cameron would 'allow' it ( we've been here before ). that got me interested. I was a doubtful devo maxer. Thought Scotland should get more powers, but not independence.

It was only by doing my own research like yourself and drawing my own conclusions that I finally realised that I was actually trying to talk myself out of a Yes vote. Because I felt that ultimately like other countries in the world. Scotland might be better off with it's own Government running the vast majority of it's own affairs. I feel that's a very normal and perfectly reasonable place to be in the world. The way the UK is run at the moment constitutionally is a very odd sometimes, and largely a result of the UK's patchy history more than anything else. No amount of tariffs or short term iScotland-rUK trade threats are going to make me feel otherwise.

Many have made similar conclusions to myself. Most Scots barring a small solid already Yes whatever group...started off in 2011 as unsure devo maxers. Only when the DevoMax option was removed for the ballot paper did I find that I was going to have to choose one or the other. And believe me, I did extensive research. I think George Osborne coming up and telling us we couldn't use the £ was the real turning point for me. The polls also suggest this to be the case for many Scots, since this was almost exactly when, after flatlining for ages in the low 30% region, independence support started rising markedly.

It's also the reason why Theresa May rules out or veto's another referendum at her peril.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

It seems you have a tendency to disbelieve things you don't like, but then, in all fairness, don't we all ex apt for me if course.

OK - using words, from the information in the chard each person was give the voice of preferred options from four scenarios.

33 + 11 = 44 % chose from the two options that included an independent Scotland

28 + 23 = 51% chose from the two options that included Scotland within the UK

That is very similar to the division of preferences on the independence issue.

The EU Poll was just on the EU.

No one is disputing what the polls said. What I am disputing is you just adding that 28% who wish to stay in the EU and the UK into the stay in UK camp. Some will, some won't.

28 + 23 = 51% chose from the two options that included Scotland within the UK

We've already seen even prominent previous unionist posters here and articles/anecdotes in newspapers saying that all 28% won't choose the UK if it comes to it. So no, that poll isn't good news from a possible second referendum standpoint. And no, I didn't get it wrong.

Shakethedisease

elantan wrote: »

Did I hear right that there are plans to protect London from parts of Brexit but not Scotland ? Single market type stuff ?

That ain't going to go down well up here if that's true

Was in the Financial Times a few days ago. It won't go down well if it happens.

zagubov

.string. wrote: »

Thank you mollycat, I take great pleasure on reading your words.

Maybe it's a good time to revisit some poll results that Shakey very kindly gave us some time ago (Post 3086 posting a survey reported by the Sunday Times). It shows that the majority of Scots want a future within the UK, preferably also within the EU. Glad to hear that message from you again Mollycat.

In the interests of balance, I should point out that Shakey thought it proved that the poll showed first choice was to join the EU, of course without the UK. She is, of course, entitled to her own (wrong) opinion.

Shame that Tories will be standing in the way of the third option, so that leaves just the other three options.

elantan wrote: »

Did I hear right that there are plans to protect London from parts of Brexit but not Scotland ? Single market type stuff ?

Don't get my hopes up!:o

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

This is where you lose about 45% of Scottish voters. For one thing oil prices aren't predictable and we can only say anything about them falling in hindsight. Secondly, and this is the important thing in terms of Salmond 'selling lies'. The White Paper came out at the end of 2013, and was ripped to shreds from about 10 mins after it came out ( Alistair Darling ) until the polls opened almost a year later. Every single media outlet in Scotland ripped it apart mercilessly, as did every single UK media outlet. Internet included. Reams and reams of 'Blow to Salmond' and 'SNP accused' 24/7. Only one solitary Sunday paper was willing to punt anything at all regarding a bit of balance.

Where were all these lies sold and to whom ? The SNP don't have any media support and much of what they put out via social media is supportive of their policies of course. But ultimately very pc and sometimes bordering on bland. There's never any fire and brimstone.

Also, needs remembering that when the referendum was first mooted in 2011 that support stood at 28%. The huge influx of new members and the landslide at Westminster came about only after the referendum. Most voters in the referendum didn't identify with the SNP in the run up to the referendum. Membership stood at about 20,000 and there were only 6 SNP MP's at Westminster. People like myself only got on board with the SNP because of the referendum and the No vote. Not the other way round.

Thank you for your detailed and informative reply. But I was/am the same when it comes to weighing up Scottish independence. I returned to Scotland in 2009 after living in England for years ( RAF bases with husband and kids ). I was very much out of the loop and voted Lib Dem in 2010. However by the time 2011 came round, I voted SNP for Holyrood but still wasn't really involved. It was finding myself here and replying to a thread on Scotland about a possible future independence ref and whether Cameron would 'allow' it ( we've been here before ). that got me interested. I was a doubtful devo maxer. Thought Scotland should get more powers, but not independence.

It was only by doing my own research like yourself and drawing my own conclusions that I finally realised that I was actually trying to talk myself out of a Yes vote. Because I felt that ultimately like other countries in the world. Scotland might be better off with it's own Government running the vast majority of it's own affairs. I feel that's a very normal and perfectly reasonable place to be in the world. The way the UK is run at the moment constitutionally is a very odd sometimes, and largely a result of the UK's patchy history more than anything else. No amount of tariffs or short term iScotland-rUK trade threats are going to make me feel otherwise.

Many have made similar conclusions to myself. Most Scots barring a small solid already Yes whatever group...started off in 2011 as unsure devo maxers. Only when the DevoMax option was removed for the ballot paper did I find that I was going to have to choose one or the other. And believe me, I did extensive research. I think George Osborne coming up and telling us we couldn't use the £ was the real turning point for me. The polls also suggest this to be the case for many Scots, since this was almost exactly when, after flatlining for ages in the low 30% region, independence support started rising markedly.

It's also the reason why Theresa May rules out or veto's another referendum at her peril.

Ah, it's good that we've done this. Right - so can you tell me what those conclusions were so I can understand why?

It was only by doing my own research like yourself and drawing my own conclusions that I finally realised that I was actually trying to talk myself out of a Yes vote. Because I felt that ultimately like other countries in the world. Scotland might be better off with it's own Government running the vast majority of it's own affairs.

Because to me, my vision, the Daniel Hannan vision for the entire UK would make us all happier, wealthier, to undertake grand social programmes and generally do well. I'm curious what is it about the UK that precludes Scottish people from wanting to partake in such a vision?

The economic argument shows that Scotland will suffer, certainly in the medium term. Maybe not by the time you're drawing a pension, but will you even have a pension to draw? It's this desire for independence regardless of consequence that I simply cannot get my head around.

I voted to leave the EU because we're not reaching our full potential within it (Scotland included). If we can reach our full potential outside of the EU, why would Scotland opt out of the UK (which by all accounts is good economically for them) and why would it opt in to the EU back into a situation which strangles that potential?

elantan

zagubov wrote: »

Shame that Tories will be standing in the way of the third option, so that leaves just the other three options.




Don't get my hopes up!:o

Imagine a border wall round London :rotfl::rotfl:

zagubov

elantan wrote: »

Imagine a border wall round London :rotfl::rotfl:

I don't have to. It was predicted in this lovely 1940s movie, with London reintegrated with mainland Europe and denied the harsh austerity of the rest of the country.

Shakethedisease

I thought this was a parody on Twitter tonight, but no, it really is the front page of the Daily ( Labour/Vow ) Record tommorow. Wow... I agree with Pat Kane.

Pat Kane ‏@thoughtland
Heavens. What's happening?

Along with the editorial yesterday. I think I need a lie down.

Nicola Sturgeon is well within her rights to plan for indyref2 after EU vote

Nicola Sturgeon is well within her rights to draw up plans for a second vote on independence. The First Minister won a landslide election victory in May on a manifesto that promised another referendum if Scotland was being dragged out of the EU against its will.
Five months on, those are exactly the circumstances we find ourselves in.


Even worse, Scotland faces the prospect of a right-wing Tory Government it didn’t vote for pushing for an economically devastating hard Brexit.

...Back in 2014, we were told only by staying in the UK could Scotland guarantee its place in Europe. It turned out to be nonsense.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-well-within-rights-9085154